NFL Draft 2026: True-or-false predictions for David Bailey, Ty Simpson, Jeremiyah Love and Round 1

The long wait for the NFL Draft is almost over. The first round is Thursday, followed by Rounds 2-3 on Friday and Rounds 4-7 on Saturday.

Before the NFL world turns its attention to Pittsburgh for this year's event, here's a preview of Round 1 in true/false form.

There will be more first-round trades than in 2025.

Every year, draft-day deals shake up the first round. The only question, then, is the number of deals we'll get. Last year saw a relatively low total of four, which might seem like an easy bar to cross. But it's not necessarily a given.

Since 2020, teams have executed an average of 5.1 Day 1 trades per draft, with a high of nine in 2022. The lowest total during that span was three in 2021, although that year featured five pre-draft trades involving first-rounders, helping explain the lack of movement.

That might lead to fewer deals this year. Seven picks have already moved. Here's a refresher:

• Jacksonville's first (No. 24) is going to Cleveland.
• Atlanta sent its pick (No. 13) to the Los Angeles Rams.
• Dallas acquired No. 20 from Green Bay in the Micah Parsons trade.
• The trade of CB Sauce Gardner netted the New York Jets a No. 16 pick from Indianapolis.
• The Rams added former Kansas City corner Trent McDuffie for the price of No. 29.
• WR Jaylen Waddle moved from Miami to Denver for the No. 30 pick.
• The Bengals dealt No. 10 to the New York Giants for DT Dexter Lawrence.

Those transactions highlight what teams think of the 2026 class, considered weaker than others in recent history. But instead of that leading to a freeze Thursday, enough teams will scramble to add top talent — and others will happily move back — that there will be at least five trades. | TRUE

Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey is the right call for the New York Jets at No. 2.

In some ways, the draft starts at No. 2. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is widely anticipated to be selected No. 1 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders, but New York's plans directly following are less obvious.

One thing that feels for certain is the Jets addressing their defense, but whether that's Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey or Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese, the two most likely choices, remains to be seen.

Recent mock drafts from Yahoo Sports' Mike Tice and Charles McDonald and ESPN's Mel Kiper have Bailey as the pick. The former point to his fit along New York's defensive line, while the latter notes his college production after finishing 2025 as the FBS sack leader.

But of the two, Reese offers more positional versatility. He's capable of playing as both an off-ball linebacker and edge-rusher, giving him value as an every-down defender. He's also the more highly touted prospect, according to ESPN, The Athletic and NFL.com, ranking first on each of their big boards. | FALSE

Ohio State Buckeyes will set post-merger draft record.

The Buckeyes figure to be a major factor early in the draft, potentially landing as many as four players in the top 10, which would be the most since the AFL-NFL merger. Per ESPN, the Michigan State Spartans are the last program to have four top 10 draft picks, doing so in 1967. 

Along with Reese, linebacker Sonny Styles, safety Caleb Downs and wide receiver Carnell Tate are likely to hear their names called early. Styles and Downs are consensus top-10 players on big boards from Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, ESPN, The Athletic and NFL.com, while Tate has a strong case as the top receiver in the class. | TRUE

Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love will be taken in the top five.

Even as arguably the top overall prospect, Love could get pushed down the board because running back is not a premium position. Bad teams (i.e. those picking near the top) aren't often just a running back away from being a contender. But it's easy to become fascinated by Love's tape and ability to translate to the pros after he averaged 6.9 yards per carry in each of the past two seasons. He also can be a matchup nightmare in the passing game, which could make him difficult for the Tennessee Titans to pass up at No. 4. | TRUE

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson is a first-round pick.

Simpson could be in line for a painful wait Thursday. Despite being widely being viewed as QB2, he has just 15 career starts and endured a downturn in production over the final half of the 2025 season. It's fair to wonder what exactly Simpson's NFL ceiling is.

But there's also more quarterback-needy teams than first-round caliber options. That increases the chances one — the Jets, Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns among the likeliest options — reaches for Simpson. | TRUE