Let's tap the brakes on the hype surrounding Manning for 2027 draft

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Let's tap the brakes on the hype surrounding Texas QB Arch Manning for 2027 NFL Draft

By Clark Dalton | Last updated Apr 27, 2026 3:02 PM ET

The 2026 NFL Draft is over, but scouts are already looking ahead to a deep 2027 class, headlined by Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning.

As of Monday, FanDuel Sportsbook lists Manning — the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli and grandson of 1971 No. 2 pick Archie — as the favorite to go No. 1 overall (+165) in 2027. Tankathon also has the Miami Dolphins taking him with pick No. 1 in its way-too-early mock draft.

Arch Manning (6-foot-4, 219 pounds) could be poised to break out after his noticeable improvement during the second half of the 2025 season. Still, let's tap the brakes on the early hype.

Why it's wise not to jump on the Arch Manning hype train yet

Over the last two drafts, a QB who wasn't hailed as a potential top pick has gone No. 1 overall.

In 2026, the Las Vegas Raiders selected Indiana Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza after a storybook season, in which he won the Heisman and led the school to its first national championship. He wasn't considered the top passer during the preseason. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Field Yates listed him as their No. 6 QB in August 2025.

Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward, pick No. 1 of the 2025 draft, didn't receive much attention, either. Bleacher Report's Brent Sobleski didn't list the former Miami Hurricanes star in his first mock draft that cycle. He had the New York Giants taking former Georgia Bulldogs QB Carson Beck with pick No. 1.

Boy, did that age poorly. Beck transferred to Miami following the 2024 season and went No. 65 overall to the Arizona Cardinals in the third round of the 2026 draft.

Now, that doesn't mean Arch Manning will follow a similar path to Beck's. He's clearly a much more talented prospect after tallying 4,650 yards (4,132 passing, 514 rushing) and 50 TDs (35 passing, 14 rushing and one receiving) in three seasons with Texas.

ARCH. MANNING.

PURE ELECTRICITY. ⚡️@TexasFootball x ABC pic.twitter.com/3We3R2F1SD
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) November 29, 2025

Arch Manning also proved he can handle heavy scrutiny, imperative for QBs. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has said, "Ninety-nine percent of kids would have melted last year if they had to endure what he endured, and all Arch did was get stronger."

Arch Manning has certainly shown tremendous growth during his time in Austin, but he still needs to make significant strides as a passer. He has completed 311-of-499 passes (62.3 percent) in his college career. Mendoza, meanwhile, completed 691-of-1,008 passes (68.6 percent) in three seasons with the Hoosiers and California Golden Bears.

Plus, the 2027 QB crop looks stacked. It features Oregon Ducks standout Dante Moore (6-foot-3, 206 pounds) and Ohio State Buckeyes star Julian Sayin (6-foot-1, 208 pounds). NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah told Rich Eisen on Monday that he would rank Moore as QB1 in 2027.

"I'll go with the Oregon quarterback over Arch [Manning]. I'll go Dante Moore."@MoveTheSticks believes that Oregon's Dante Moore can be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL draft

(via @RichEisenShow) pic.twitter.com/iFujfzIdJB
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 27, 2026

Arch Manning's trajectory provides draft gurus and Texas fans plenty of reason for excitement heading into the 2026 season. But let's not pencil him in as the No. 1 pick for the 2027 draft in Washington, D.C., yet.

Clark Dalton

Clark Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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