Predicting when top 2026 NFL Draft QBs will receive first start

Patience will be mandatory for teams that selected quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Since 2023, seven rookies (Cam Ward, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young) have entered Week 1 as starting quarterbacks. But for the first time in four seasons, a first-year quarterback might not open as QB1.

With that in mind, below, we predict when the top five quarterbacks in the 2026 class (based on draft position) will receive their first start, ranking them from earliest to latest.

1. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Beck

Predicted start: ~Week 7

Following the draft, the Cardinals have the longest odds of winning Super Bowl LXI and are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the league's lowest projected over/under win total (4.5), per ESPN.

Jacoby Brissett, currently embroiled in a contract dispute, is the expected opening week starter. Arizona also added journeyman Gardner Minshew on a one-year free-agent contract in March. 

Brissett averaged 280.5 passing yards per game in 12 starts a season ago, but only produced one win. He'll be able to move the ball and show Beck, selected with the first pick of Round 3 (No. 65 overall), how first-year head coach Mike LaFleur's offense should look before ceding the reins following a winless start to the season.

2. Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza

Predicted start: ~Week 11

Of the 18 quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall 2001-25, two-thirds have started Week 1, but Mendoza is expected to join the third who sat out to begin their career. It's been a while, with the last six No. 1 picks dating back to Kyler Murray (2019) earning the starting gig out of training camp. You have to go back to 2018 and Baker Mayfield, for the last time a quarterback selected first overall, made his first start following an in-season change.

The Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins to a contract in free agency, and the 14-year veteran should get an extended runway as the organization considers how best to develop Mendoza. Cousins also has success running first-year coach Klint Kubiak's scheme, throwing for 4,221 yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his lone previous season with Kubiak as his offensive coordinator in 2021 with the Minnesota Vikings. He'll produce enough that it won't make much sense for the Raiders to move to Mendoza until the back half of the season, when they're out of playoff contention.

3. New York Jets quarterback Cade Klubnik

Predicted start: ~Week 14

Klubnik, who New York moved up to select in the fourth round (No. 110 overall), should have no problem beating out 2025 undrafted free agent Brady Cook, who threw two touchdowns and seven interceptions last season, as Geno Smith's backup. The former Jet was traded back to the organization that selected him No. 39 overall in 2013 earlier this offseason, and despite a rough 2025, Smith should start the majority of 2026.

While New York is nowhere close to being a contender, second-year coach Aaron Glenn may not be able to survive another miserable 3-14 record. Despite his flaws and as slight as the odds might be, Smith gives the Jets the best chance to win. But as New York enters into the final stretch of another non-playoff season, it will have no other choice but to turn to the future and see what it has in Klubnik before taking Arch Manning to replace him in 2027.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Drew Allar

Predicted start: Week 1 2027

Until Aaron Rodgers comes out and says he's done playing professional football, we'll ignore his attention-seeking behavior and pencil him in as the Steelers' starting quarterback in a reunion with his former Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy. 

But Rodgers' future beyond 2026 is as mysterious as his wife, and we're predicting he'll finally say enough is enough after missing the postseason. That would provide Allar, the fourth quarterback taken in the 2026 NFL Draft (No. 76 overall), an opportunity to win the starting job in 2027 over Will Howard and whoever else the front office brings in, which, based on the team's ability to attract quarterback talent in recent seasons, won't be much.

5. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Ty Simpson

Predicted start: Week 1 2028

Coming off his first league MVP award, veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford has no business retiring anytime soon. We don't anticipate much of a drop-off in 2026, giving him every reason to continue playing the following year, the final in a Pro Football Hall of Fame career.

Jordan Love was the most recent first-round quarterback to sit multiple seasons ahead of earning a first-team role, riding the bench for the majority of two years behind Rodgers before becoming Green Bay's permanent starter in 2023.

The Rams will follow a similar blueprint with Simpson, a stunning first-round selection (No. 13 overall). Or, considering what Los Angeles already has at the position, it should.