If analytics decided the 2025-26 NHL Awards, who would win?

Awards season is always an interesting time of the year.

The awards always generate plenty of discussion about who should win, as well as about special seasons from great players. But the awards also don’t have a ton of meaning, unless you’re the player winning them. Who gets what award doesn’t change who someone else thinks was the better fit for. Despite that, there’s always plenty of outrage over the results, whether directed at a finalist or at a specific writer’s ballot choices.

But what if we removed the subjectivity to the awards? What if there were a way to determine the awards without getting people’s opinions in the way and to decide them based on a consistent method?

That’s what I’m here to do today. While there’s no true all-determining stat to evaluate everyone on the same playing field, there are a few that get the job done as long as you understand their strengths and weaknesses.

So what happens if we use analytics to determine the awards for the 2025-26 season? There may be a few more changes than expected.

All advanced stats are provided by Evolving Hockey.

Hart Memorial Trophy

Winner: Lane Hutson (Montreal Canadiens)
Finalists: Quinn Hughes (Vancouver Canucks/Minnesota Wild), Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)

To determine the Hart Trophy candidates, I used Evolving Hockey’s goals-above-replacement model and went by each player’s total GAR contributions. To account for goaltenders having higher GARs due to more ice time, I compared goalies’ and skaters’ GAR per 60 minutes, with the highest goaltender having to at least surpass the third-best skater.

It’s quite rare for a defenseman to find themselves in the Hart Trophy race. We haven’t seen a defenseman as a finalist for the award since Chris Pronger won it in 2000, and the highest finisher since then was Niklas Lidstrom (2008) and Brent Burns (2017), both in fourth. It’s surprising with how valuable the position is considered, especially for championship-winning teams (in comparison, six defensemen have won the Conn Smythe Trophy since 2000).

So it should come as a surprise to see two defensemen leading the way for the Hart Trophy race, but when you think about it, it shouldn’t. After all, this season has seen some fantastic performances from defensemen, enough where five to 10 defenders could have won the Norris in another season. Why shouldn’t they be in the Hart conversation?

Hutson, in particular, might be a surprise to some. When you think of MVP candidates on the Canadiens, Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield likely come to mind first. But with how Hutson evolved his defensive game from his rookie season (-4.7 defensive GAR in 2024-25 vs. 4 in 2025-26), along with the addition of a shot to his offensive repertoire, has him leading the NHL with a 30.2 GAR.

Hughes was a long shot for the Hart Trophy when he was traded to Minnesota, but since the move, he has not only returned to form but also played the best hockey of his career. His 1.15 GAR/60 with Minnesota beats any other season by a wide margin, as he had just 0.738 in his Norris Trophy-winning season in 2024. Additionally, his offensive GAR/60 (0.834) and defensive GAR/60 (0.208) were also the highest marks of his career. His struggles with Vancouver drop the overall number to 0.874, but with how he changed the Wild’s contention window with his arrival, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him here.

And then there’s McDavid. No explanation is needed here, especially when he’s in the mainstream conversation for the award. As for the other popular candidates, Nikita Kucherov just missed the cut in fourth (26.5 GAR), while Nathan MacKinnon (23, ninth) and Macklin Celebrini (20.5, 16th) are further down due to poor defensive numbers.

James Norris Memorial Trophy

Winner: Lane Hutson (Montreal Canadiens)
Finalists: Quinn Hughes (Minnesota Wild/Vancouver Canucks), Moritz Seider (Detroit Red Wings)

Like the Hart Trophy, the Norris Trophy candidates were determined using Evolving Wild’s GAR model, but the pool was limited to defensemen.

With Hutson and Hughes finishing first and second in the Hart Trophy results, it should come as no surprise that they both finished first and second for the Norris, so no explanation is needed here.

Now, if you wanted to award the Norris Trophy to the best two-way defender, Seider is the only option. He was the only defenseman this season to rank in the top 10 in offensive GAR (15.3, sixth) and defensive GAR (10.1, tied for third), and he did so on a Red Wings team who were mediocre at preventing chances. He didn’t face the tough minutes he has in past seasons, but it’s still an impressive season, one well worthy of Norris votes.

As for the other mainstream candidates, Zach Werenski and Evan Bouchard just missed, ranking fourth and fifth in GAR, while Cale Makar appeared to take his foot off the gas as the Avalanche were dominant this season, finishing 12th.

Vezina Trophy

Winner: Logan Thompson (Washington Capitals)
Finalists: Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins), Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders)

The Vezina Trophy candidates were selected based on Evolving Hockey’s 5v5 goals saved above expected model.

Whether I used GAR or GSAx, Thompson was the runaway winner for the Vezina. He was a heavier mainstream favourite earlier in the season, but as the Capitals dropped down the standings, so did his chances of winning. However, his .912 save percentage is quite impressive when you factor in that he played behind a defense that allowed the ninth-most 5v5 expected goals against per 60 this season, ultimately giving him a 42.74 5v5 GSAx.

Swayman wasn’t far behind in GSAx at 40.01, but it makes sense when you break down his numbers against Thompson’s. Despite the Bruins allowing slightly more 5v5 xGA/60 (tied for fifth most with 2.97), Swayman was also slightly worse in the SV% department at .908. In the end, it evens out.

The same goes for Sorokin. The Islanders had a worse 5v5 xGA/60 than the Capitals and Bruins (tied for third-worst at 3.05), but Sorokin had a worse SV% of .906. There was a point where he was the frontrunner for the award, but his struggles down the stretch (which also saw the Islanders slip out of a playoff spot) dropped his 5v5 GSAx to third with 32.94.

Calder Memorial Trophy

Winner: Jesper Wallstedt (Minnesota Wild)
Finalists: Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders), Justin Sourdif (Washington Capitals)

The Calder Trophy candidates were selected based on Evolving Hockey’s GAR model, but limited only to the pool of rookies. Like the Hart Trophy, goaltenders’ rankings on these lists were determined by comparing their GAR/60 rates to the top skaters.

The Calder Trophy might highlight an issue with comparing rate stats when incorporating skaters and goalies into the same pool, as Wallstedt has played fewer games than most of the top skater rookies. However, whether you sort based on GAR or GAR/60, Wallstedt has the advantage over the likes of Schaefer, Sourdif, and Ivan Demidov. For comparison, Jakub Dobes has the same GAR as Wallstedt (23.7), but with eight more games played, he has a drastically different GAR/60 (0.564 to Wallstedt’s 0.713), which drops him out of the top three entirely.

Of course, Wallstedt’s win isn’t meant to discredit Schaefer’s season, as he led all rookie skaters in GAR with 14.4, and was even tied for 23rd among all defensemen this season. Despite how easy he made the transition to the NHL look, there were some defensive issues down the stretch, and his -1.4 defensive GAR put him back ever so slightly in the race for the award.

On the flip side, it was Sourdif’s defensive play that earned him a spot as a Calder finalist despite only sitting in a tie for eighth in scoring with 35 points. He was the only rookie to have an offensive GAR higher than five and a defensive GAR higher than one, so a respective 6.3 and 4.2 in those stats gave him the second-best mark among skaters.

As for the other mainstream Calder candidate who went unmentioned in Beckett Sennecke, he was much further down the list, as he was tied for 23rd among rookies with a 4.4 GAR. His 8.2 offensive GAR wasn’t in the top 10 among rookies, so it wasn’t enough to overcome a -4.7 defensive GAR.

Frank J. Selke Trophy

Winner: Noah Cates (Philadelphia Flyers)
Finalists: Blake Coleman (Calgary Flames), Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)

The Selke Trophy candidates were determined by Evolving Hockey’s defensive GAR model, but limited only to the pool of forwards. Additionally, the forward had to rank in the 85th percentile or higher in Evolving Hockey’s GAR+-/60 stat in their Quality of Competition model.

Suzuki is another player many will think is a snub for these awards. The de facto Selke winner is not an option with Aleksander Barkov out this season, and it appears Suzuki is the guy everyone is talking about. He’s still in the conversation (he ranked 8th in defensive GAR among players in the 85th percentile or higher in quality of competition), but he’s not the clear-cut favourite some think he is.

Instead, it’s Cates, who’s so far ahead of the pack, it’s insane. He leads all forwards in defensive GAR at 9.4. The next closest? Jordan Kyrou with 6.7. Add in his deployment as the shutdown center for the team, which was third in 5v5 xGA/60, and it’s an easy case for him. Cates has been a favourite in my past versions of these awards, as he was a finalist in 2023 and 2024. So it’s no surprise he finally wins one this season.

Rounding out the top three are Coleman and Reinhart. Reinhart is no stranger to the Selke conversation, as he’s finished in the top four the past two seasons, and with a 5.6 defensive GAR this season, he more than adequately filled in for Barkov as the shutdown guy on the Panthers. Coleman isn’t in the conversation as much, receiving only a handful of votes over his career, but with a 6.1 defensive GAR, he was one of the few bright spots on a putrid Flames team.

Jack Adams Award

Winner: Jared Bednar (Colorado Avalanche)
Finalists: Rod Brind’Amour (Carolina Hurricanes), Travis Green (Ottawa Senators)

The Jack Adams Award candidates were determined based on their team’s respective 5v5 expected goal shares. While it was ranked based on 5v5 xG%, the team also had to rank in the top 10 in both expected goals for and against per 60 minutes.

While the Avalanche were one of the “luckier” teams in the league, outperforming their 5v5 xGF% with a 62.86% 5v5 goal share, they were still the best team in terms of xGF% with 57.06%, and Bednar deserves some credit there. Sure, he has a talented roster. But when every forward skates like they’re MacKinnon and every defenseman skates like they’re Makar, it speaks to how well Bednar selects players for his teams and how effective his systems are at elevating those players.

Brind’Amour is a similar type of coach, one where his impact is quite apparent because every player buys into the system and plays with energy throughout the game. Say what you will about it tiring out his players for the playoffs, but in the regular season, it always works, and it did again this season with a second-ranked 56.31% 5v5 xGF%.

Green’s impact might be the most noticeable, though. He’s only been with the Senators for two seasons, but since his arrival, the team has transformed into one of the league’s best defensive teams. Over the past two seasons, Ottawa ranks third in 5v5 xGA/60 at 2.39, improving to first in 2025-26 at 2.36. Green’s systems do limit the Senators’ offensive creation a bit, something which burned them in the playoffs, but you can’t deny he was a big reason Ottawa got to the playoffs in the first place.

Lady Byng Memorial Trophy

Winner: Jackson Lacombe (Anaheim Ducks)
Finalists: Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets), Philip Broberg (St. Louis Blues)

The Lady Byng Trophy candidates were determined using Evolving Hockey’s penalties-taken GAR model.

It’s not often a defenseman wins the Lady Byng. Jaccob Slavin has won it twice in the past five seasons, but before him, Brian Campbell was the only defenseman since 1954 to win the award. With how much ice time defensemen get, and how much the slightest mistake can result in a penalty, it’s rare they finish with few penalty minutes, so voters always lean towards forwards.

But this season, we saw three instances of excellent discipline from defenders, and with how much they play, it rewards them all the more. Werenski’s 18 penalty minutes don’t seem like the cleanest season, but he also averaged the second-most minutes in the league. Broberg didn’t play as many minutes as Werenski, but was favored well in Evolving Wild’s model. Both defensemen finished the season with a GAR of 2.9 penalties taken.

It was quite close at the top as well, as Lacombe edged out Broberg and Werenski by 0.1 in penalties taken GAR, as Lacombe finished with an even 3. The Ducks defenseman playing the full 82 games likely proved the difference over Broberg’s 81 and Werenski’s 75.

The model favoured defensemen in general, as the top 10 in penalties taken GAR were all blueliners. The top forward? Kyle Connor tied for eighth with 2.5.