USA-Turkiye: Three factors that could decide the USMNT's third World Cup fixture

Record-setting Turkish profligacy

Turkiye might have lost its opening two World Cup games, but it didn't lose them because it wasn't trying. The team tallied a frankly absurd 62 shots against Australia and Paraguay, but those 62 shots translated into 13 shots on target and zero goals. It's the most shots taken without a goal by any nation in the history of the World Cup.

"Honestly, something like this has never happened to me in 35 years of football," said Turkiye coach Vincenzo Montella, via Gazzetta.it. "It's clear that, in these two matches, fate wasn't on our side."

Whether it was fate, luck or just good old-fashioned inaccuracy, Turkiye's inability to score defined its 2026 World Cup journey. Will that continue in this final game against the USMNT or will the team pull itself together to regain its dignity on the world stage? 

Montella believes his players have it in them to write a happier ending. 

"They’ve got nothing to hold against themselves in terms of their behavior or their commitment," Montella said, via fifa.com.

“We need to harness all of that out on the pitch in the way we prepare for our next game. That’s our responsibility, that’s our duty, but we need to show the spirit that has characterized us right up until now.”

Heavy USMNT rotation

This game doesn't mean anything—the USMNT will win Group D and Turkiye will be eliminated no matter how it shakes out—but that lack of pressure opens the door for some of the USMNT's lesser-used players. Coach Mauricio Pochettino is likely to rotate out a handful of his starters to save their legs for the knockout rounds.

The four most likely rotations are defenders Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson, midfielder Tyler Adams and striker Folarin Balogun. All four picked up yellow cards earlier in the group stage and all four would be suspended for the USMNT's first knockout game if they picked up another here. That opens the door for their natural backfills: Mark McKenzie or Miles Robinson for Richards, Max Arfsten for Robinson, Sebastian Berhalter for Adams and Haji Wright for Balogun.

“We go into that game just trying to get three points," Richards said of the potential rotation. "Whoever’s on the field, we know we’re going to go out there and give 110%, and whoever isn’t playing, we’re going to be on the sideline backing them."

"The tournament is going to be won with 26 guys," McKenzie agreed. "Everybody’s going to be called on at different points in different capacities. Being ready, I think, is the biggest thing for each and every guy."