Cubs take two steps back with starting pitchers' brutal injury updates

As Chicago Tribune Cubs beat writer Meghan Montemurro noted on social media, the organization has been hit hard by injuries to starters, with Brown and Cabrera joining Jameson Taillon (hamstring), Cade Horton (elbow) and Justin Steele (elbow) on the injured list.

Brown, in his third MLB season, is having a career-year, posting a 1.85 ERA in 20 appearances (eight starts), allowing 14 earned runs and 45 hits in 68 innings. His knuckle curve has been one of the league's most flummoxing breaking pitches, with batters hitting .124 against it this season after going .252 in 2025. Per Baseball Savant, Brown has 42 strikeouts while allowing only 56 batted ball events with the pitch.

Cabrera has had less success, posting a 6.08 ERA and allowing multiple earned runs in his previous 12 starts since consecutive shutout appearances to begin the season. But his absence will further test Chicago's depth with Triple-A replacements Vince Velasquez and Gavin Hollowell inspiring little confidence.

Despite notching decent strikeout numbers, Velasquez, 34, has a 6.42 ERA in 10 games (six stars) for the Triple-A affiliate Iowa Cubs, while Hollowell's 43 career MLB appearances, including three this season, have come out of the bullpen with the 2019 sixth-rounder posting a 5.73 ERA.

Chicago's pitching woes are threatening to spoil a once-promising 2026 season. On May 8, Baseball Reference gave the Cubs a 97.7 percent chance of making the postseason after improving to 27-12. Their odds sit at 55.1 percent entering Wednesday, plummeting 20.4 percentage points over the last 30 days, the fourth-largest drop in the majors during that span. Chicago (41-37) sits six games back of the Milwaukee Brewers (48-29) for first in the division.

In a tie with the San Diego Padres (41-37) for the third NL wild card, the Cubs may need to be aggressive on the trade market ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline to make up for the copious injuries to their starting rotation.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently revealed a pessimistic outlook for Steele, who has been out since Apr. 7, 2025. In April, Horton underwent season-ending elbow surgery, while Taillon will be out until at least the All-Star break from Jul. 13-16.

Boyd's return offers some relief, but Chicago likely needs more reinforcements to withstand the number of absences. Standing pat is increasingly becoming less of an option.