Sal Stewart is the Clear NL Rookie of the Year

Stewart is not only leading the league in home runs and RBI amongst NL Rookies, he’s almost lapping the competition. His 31 home runs are 14 more than Wetherholt, who ranks second in the category. Stewart’s 105 RBI is 41 more than TJ Rumfield, who is second.

Rumfield’s name will come up when you search through NL Rookies as he leads in doubles and has a five-point lead over Stewart in OPS. While Rumfield has had a terrific season that deserves its own shine, his impressive .291/.384/.442 slash line will not get nearly as much love as Stewart’s run production.

To me, this goes to show how much power plays into the awards consideration. Home runs have always been a stat that grabs people’s attention, especially when it comes to voting for awards.

Of the past eight position players to win NL Rookie of the Year, all have been in the top two in home runs, with five finishing with the most home runs.

To make this as simple as possible, every rookie to hit 30 home runs and collect at least 100 RBI has won the award. There have only been a couple of players, both AL and NL, to hit 30 home runs and not win the award, although we are likely to see it this year in the AL with Munetaka Murakami.

Of course, power is not the only attribute Stewart brings. If all he did was hit home runs and take advantage of a hitter-friendly ballpark, we would be having a different discussion.

Stewart is a better pure hitter than you might think. He uses all fields and is not above shooting a single the other way when a pitch is perfectly located on the outside edge.

Via Baseball Savant 

We all love an evenly distributed spray chart, don’t we?

Especially when it comes with power to all fields. Without a doubt, Stewart’s season has established him as the best rookie hitter in the NL and, in my opinion, the clear frontrunner for the award. However, there is a pitcher who has a chance to steal it.

Does Nolan McLean Have a Chance?

Nolan McLean was the favorite heading into the season, and for good reason. What he showed down the stretch in 2025 was no joke, and the talent in his arm is undeniable.

Following up a 2.06 ERA and 2.97 FIP across eight starts in 2026 with a 3.06 ERA and 3.60 FIP in 27 starts in 2026 would usually be enough for the odds on favorite to win the award, but not this year.

Comparing batters to hitters is a tough task. Not only from a purely statistical angle, but also because a pitcher only plays once every fifth day, making their impact more difficult to compare side by side.

Don’t get me wrong, most people can understand Chris Sale being more impactful than Mauricio Dubon, but when it comes down to closer comparisons, it can be difficult.

We have seen this in the MVP discussion with Pete Crow Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani.

Since 2010, only five pitchers have won the NL Rookie of the Year award, with one coming in the shortened COVID season. Overall, roughly 65% of NL Rookie of the Year Award winners have been position players. Maybe it is a coincidence, or due to the frequency of injuries causing inning limits on rookie pitchers, or several other factors. But position players win more than pitchers, which only helps Stewart’s case.

So, what would it take for McLean to win? Outside of a prayer, he would have to put together a dominant stretch that might still put him on the outside looking in.

The last three starters to win NL Rookie of the Year were:

2024 – Paul Skenes – 1.93 ERA, 170 K, 133 IP

2014 – Jacob deGrom – 2.69 ERA, 144 K, 140.1 IP

2013 – Jose Fernandez – 2.19 ERA, 187 K, 172.2 IP 

McLean’s 3.06 ERA, 172 strikeouts, 155.2 innings (through 9/4) is not quite at the same elite pace as the winners before him. In order to win as a pitcher, you have to be throwing at a level elite enough to be considered for other pitching awards, not just Rookie of the Year.

McLean has that working against him on top of the fact that Stewart’s 30 HR/100 RBI combo has been a proven lock throughout history to capture the award. Even with a remarkable finish, there’s little chance McLean can do enough to change the minds of voters.