Ohio State showdown could be crucial to perception of Arch Manning

The biggest matchup of the 2026 college football season so far takes place in Austin, Texas this weekend. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes will travel to the Lone Star state to take on Arch Manning and the Longhorns in Week 2. How could a game of this magnitude impact the perception of Manning as we look ahead to the season and the NFL Draft in April in 2027?

Arch Manning's last encounter with the Buckeyes

On Aug. 30, 2025, the Manning era officially kicked off in a season opening showdown against defending national champion Ohio State in Columbus. It was Manning's first game as a full-time starter and awash in preseason hype generated by his last name. 

The 22-year-old threw for just 170 yards, one touchdown and an interception in a 14-7 loss. It was a defensive battle, as the Longhorns were only one of three teams to hold the prolific Buckeyes offense to 14 points or fewer last season (Miami, Indiana). 

Manning didn't have the "flashy" debut the masses hoped that day, and the five-star recruit's struggles were exhibited throughout the entire first half of last season. 

Manning's ups and downs in 2025

After the loss to Ohio State, Manning's struggles were at the forefront in an embarrassing loss to a reeling Florida Gators team. Manning threw for 263 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while having a QBR of 70.5. The Texas quarterback absorbed six sacks and his lack of pocket awareness was on full display. 

The struggles continued in an unnecessarily close victory against Kentucky and a beatdown against SEC heavyweight Georgia.

However, Manning led Texas to a 7-1 record to close out last season, which included monumental wins over in-state rival No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 9 Vanderbilt and No. 18 Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Manning showcased much better pocket awareness, ball security and decision making. As the season progressed, Manning seemed to play more relaxed and with greater confidence in the latter half of the season. 

What's at stake for Manning in 2026

The hype and expectations were perhaps too much for Manning to handle last season, especially in the first half. However, since he finished last season strongly and kicked off the 2026 campaign with 305 passing yards and four touchdowns against Texas State, perhaps that momentum can carry into Saturday's game. 

At this juncture, Manning is likely to be the No.1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft come April. Prominent quarterbacks such as Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Oregon's Dante Moore could be in that discussion, but the No. 1 spot is Manning's to lose. 

If Manning can play well against the Buckeyes, as well as against premier opponents such as No. 18 Tennessee, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 8 LSU and No. 10 Texas A&M, there is no draft analyst that won't have Manning as the de facto first pick in the draft.