Why Mets are 'considered the favorite to land' Tarik Skubal over Dodgers in free agency

While the Los Angeles Dodgers did well to acquire ace Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers in early August of this year, the Dodgers did not sign him to a contract extension leading up to free agency, which is set to begin Monday at 5 p.m. ET.

For an article published on Monday morning, MLB insider Jeff Passan of ESPN shared that the Dodgers and the New York Mets are the "two most obvious suitors" regarding the Skubal sweepstakes. In that same piece, ESPN's Jorge Castillo said that the Mets "are considered the favorite to land the prize of this free agent class," Skubal, for multiple reasons. 

Will Mets hand Tarik Skubal a blank check?

"There's a clear need for a top-tier starting pitcher," Castillo wrote about the Mets. "They're one of the very few teams willing to pay top dollar for premier free agents." 

Passan pointed out that Skubal is expected to sign a deal "well in excess of $300M, potentially in the $400M-plus range." History shows that Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns would likely prefer to pass on handing such a contract to any starting pitcher, even a proven ace such as Skubal. That said, SNY MLB insider Chelsea Janes has reported that big-spending Mets owner Steve Cohen "will push for" Stearns to give Skubal a long-term deal.

Would Tarik Skubal reject the Mets to stay with the Dodgers?

SNY's Danny Abriano and others have noted that a Mets team coming off a 74-88 season is expected to target multiple starting pitchers in free agency. However, ESPN's Alden Gonzalez mentioned in Monday's article that his "sense is Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers" this fall. 

"He truly seemed to relish his 2.5 months in Los Angeles," Gonzalez said about Skubal. "He loved the culture, particularly being among so many established, veteran players who were singularly focused on winning. He became besties with Blake Snell, was awed by the organization's resources and, overall, seemed to fit in seamlessly. But it's going to come down to price. And whether the Dodgers would be willing to match Steve Cohen's Mets or any other suitors that materialize, given the threat of a salary cap, remains to be seen."

Of course, Gonzalez was referencing what may or may not happen after the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association expires on Dec. 1. According to Passan, "the expectation is" Skubal will sign with a team before the lockout officially begins in a month.