Some teams reportedly 'wary' of offering record-breaking deal to Tarik Skubal due to injury history

Ace Tarik Skubal is widely considered the top prize of this fall's MLB free-agent class, and he almost certainly will put pen to paper on a historic contract whenever his camp accepts an offer.

On Tuesday, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN suggested that concerns related to the upcoming lockout and to the threat of a salary cap may not be the only reasons certain clubs with deep pockets pass on attempting to win the Skubal sweepstakes. 

Will "risk factors" scare certain teams away from entering Tarik Skubal sweepstakes? 

"Some teams are wary of offering a record-breaking deal to Skubal because of his history of arm issues," McDaniel wrote. "Tommy John surgery in 2016 while in college, a 2022 surgery on the flexor tendon in his throwing elbow and a 2026 procedure to remove a loose elbow particle. Add in that he's turning 30 years old in November, and a number of teams just won't offer a retail price on a long deal to any pitcher with those risk factors."

One would think that the New York Mets would be among the teams referenced by McDaniel, as Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has shown throughout his tenure with the organization that he isn't keen on giving a long-term deal to an aging pitcher who could miss an entire season (or more) due to needing Tommy John surgery.

However, a Monday story noted that the Mets "are considered the favorites" to sign Skubal, as team owner Steve Cohen is apparently prepared to spend big following the club's 74-88 season.

As for how much Cohen may need to spend, McDaniel thinks Skubal will get something in the neighborhood of an eight-year, $352M deal. Skubal is expected to sign before the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association expires on Dec. 1, and McDaniel believes "the smart money is a pretty quick process that ends with a contract guarantee between $300M and $400M." 

Could a sleeper team win Tarik Skubal's signature? 

Before the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Skubal from the Detroit Tigers in early August of this year, he made his MLB debut with the Tigers in 2020 and pitched only for that organization.

It's assumed the Dodgers are either 1A or 1B among the favorites to land Skubal, but McDaniel mentioned that the Tigers "are monitoring for a discount." Additionally, the New York Yankees are allegedly "thinking about" signing Skubal, which would allow the Yankees to trade somebody currently in their rotation. 

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are seen as "sleepers with ownership changes behind the interest" regarding Skubal.

For what it's worth, Anthony McCarron of SNY shared on Tuesday that he is among those who believe the Mets will "give the No. 1 free agent in an otherwise-iffy market the No. 1 pitching contract in baseball history" at some point before Dec. 1 comes to an end.