26 predictions for the 2026 World Cup

Of the three host nations, on paper the United States is the best team. However, the last couple years have been up and down, and also the United States has the toughest group of the three host teams. We aren’t going to predict which game the U.S. wins, and we aren’t saying the other two games will be losses. We’re just saying the Americans only win one game on its home turf.

Messi and Ronaldo are two all-time greats of the game. Argentina won the last World Cup, and Messi was the best player for the team. While he now plays in MLS, and this is assuredly his last World Cup, we think he scores at least one goal (but probably not more than a couple). Meanwhile, Ronaldo has been a goal poacher for Portugal for, oh, six years? He actively hurts the Portuguese team now, and we think he ends this tournament without a goal.

The Canadians are a host nation, but Alphonso Davies is the one true blue (or true north, as it were) star the team has. Home cooking (poutine, we assume) won’t help the Canadians win the group. Now, they will smash Qatar, because Qatar is a trash squad, but we think the Swiss take Group B.

Four nations are playing in their first World Cup. Those teams are Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. That means 12 opportunities for a nation to win in its first World Cup. Plus, there are countries in this tournament that have never won a game previously. Uzbekistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are in the same group. That increases the chances of somebody getting a first win.

Norway has Erling Haaland, and he isn’t a one-man team. Having said that, Norway is not a deep team by any means. It got drawn in with France, Senegal, and Iraq. While Norway is the favorite to beat Iraq, it is likely to lose to France. If Senegal beats Norway, Norway has to be one of the best eight third-place teams. We’re betting against that happening.

That being said, we don’t see any seismic exits in the group stage. The fact 32 teams out of 48 advance helps. Brazil, Germany, France, and the like will all make it out of the group stage, and most of them should win their groups. Italy won’t advance, but that’s only because it isn’t even in the tournament.

There are a couple teams we can easily envision finishing this tournament with three losses. Qatar, for example. Tunisia for another. However, Haiti is in line for a rough experience. It is far from a footballing nation, having only previously appeared in 1974. It lost all three games with a minus-12 goal differential. Haiti will face Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland in the group. A repeat performance of 1974 is to be expected.

Both de Bruyne and Salah have had excellent careers domestically, though both haven’t had as much international success as they may have hoped. KDB was the best player of Belgium’s golden generation, and Salah is the best player Egypt has ever produced. It’s possible Salah will play in another World Cup, simply because who is going to rise up in Egypt to replace him, but we think in 2026 both of these Premier League icons score one last World Cup goal.

We mentioned the Democratic Republic of Congo is looking for its first World Cup win. When the nation was known as Zaire it appeared in a World Cup, but lost all three games. There are some talented players in line to play this summer, such as Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Yoane Wissa. The DR Congo is also in a group with Uzbekistan and a Colombia team on a downswing. As such, we see the African nation making it through the group stage.

Alright, so who is going to cruise through the group stage? Spain is the easiest pick, as it will face Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. It won Euro 2024 and is loaded right now. Germany is a bit down, but in a group with Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador we think it picks up three wins. Lastly, while Senegal should play France tough, we think the French sweep through the group as well.

We mentioned Qatar and Haiti as being in a likely battle for the worst World Cup performance. However, we see four teams failing to pick up a point. Those two, of course, but Panama, Jordan, New Zealand, and Iraq also all serve up the possibility of a three-loss World Cup.

Kane is still scoring goals left and right for Bayern Munich. He’s scored 78 goals for his country, the most in the history of England. It will just take two more goals for him to hit a new threshold by getting to 80 goals. Yeah, we think Kane can score at least two goals before England is eliminated.

Yamal is already one of the most-famous, most-impressive players in the world. He’s also still only 18, and at Euro 2024 he scored a goal as a 16-year-old literal child. We noted Spain has an easy group. One of these games, Yamal is going to find the back of the net three times.

Again, this is a prediction where we aren’t sure who will be the person who does it. Pulisic is the best player America has ever produced. He plays for AC Milan, and he has done great things in the American jersey. Pulisic is also still in his prime. However, 2026 has been rough for him, and even if he is fine, or even pretty good, at the World Cup, we think somebody else leads the way. If we were pressed to name a name for a prediction, we'd go with Malik Tillman.

As noted, Germany isn’t as impressive as we are accustomed to. There is a bit of a sea change in terms of former key players aging out with the young generation not being as impressive. Obviously, we don’t know what the matchup will be in the round of 32 or the round of 16. We just know we figure Germany loses before the quarterfinals.

Mexico and Canada, with their groups, have a good chance of making the round of 32. The United States, as a host nation with plenty of talent, has a good chance as well. At that point, though, none of these teams are close to being one of the eight-best footballing nations in the world at present. We might not even have any of them in the top 16. This will be a World Cup without a single host nation in the quarterfinals.

African teams in the quarterfinals have been rare, and in 2022 Morocco made history by being the first African team to make the semis. Somebody is going to make the quarterfinals this year. Maybe even the Democratic Republic of the Congo! More than likely, though, it will be Morocco or Senegal, aka the teams from the totally-chill African Cup of Nations final.

That being said, we don’t see anything surprising in the semis. Europe and South America have been the top footballing continents for decades on end. Asia, Africa, North America, and Oceania will all have collectively bowed out by the semis. The final four will be drawn from the usual places, South America and Europe.

In 1994, the United States hosted the World Cup for the first time. The leading goal scorers tied with six goals. One was Bulgarian legend Hristo Stoichkov. The other was the Russian Oleg Salenko, who scored five goals against Cameroon. In 2022, nobody surprising got to four goals, but we think 2026 will yield a surprise on that front.

Luka Modric is 40 and still a key player for Croatia. Edin Dzeko is 40 and still serving as a striker for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those are two of the prominent fortysomethings in line to play at the 2026 World Cup. One of them is going to score a goal.

These are the two teams that played in the final in the previous tournament, but we don’t see either returning. That’s hard to do! France has been in the last two finals, but Brazil from 1994 through 2002 is the last time a team has made it three World Cups in a row. Meanwhile, 2026 was effectively the Last Dance for Argentina. They aren’t going to do it again.

Sure, these two teams could get stuck facing one another before the final. Ultimately, though, we’re going with Spain and Brazil. Both are a nice mix of burgeoning young talent and guys still in their prime. This would make for an exciting final, to be sure. Also, it would be Brazil’s first final since 2002.

Spain has won one World Cup, in 2010. It did so between winning Euros. Spain won Euro 2024. It feels like Brazil is always just a little too chaotic to get over the hump. We’re taking Spain to win World Cup 2026 over Brazil on the outskirts of New York City.

A player need not be from the winner to be the MVP, aka to win the Golden Ball. When Spain is firing on all cylinders, it has attacking talent, but also a midfielder pulling all the strings. He’s also a Ballon d’Or winner. Rodri will add another golden trophy to his resume at the 2026 World Cup.

Rodri won’t score the most goals, though. Neither with Yamal. Actually, we’re looking outside the final here. France will likely go deep into the tournament, possibly to the semis, and thus to the third-place game. That will give Kylian Mbappe enough time to score the most goals in this tournament.

Yes, the ticket prices are ridiculous. Sure, travel is going to be tough. There will be stadium annoyances. There will be lackluster games. People will complain vociferously about the World Cup. Also? Mostly the games will be good and people are going to have a ton of fun watching them. It’ll be a World Cup, in short.