Players With the WORST xG Difference in the Premier League

There aren’t many ‘natural finishers’ in the Premier League today. The days of Ruud van Nistelrooy, Robbie Fowler and Andy Cole seem to be long gone – but which Premier League players have displayed the most profligacy in front of goal this season?

We’ll be aiming to figure that out today, using xG as our point of reference. We’ve included players from Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Leeds United in this list – can you guess who they are?

As a quick refresher, or for those who don’t know, ‘xG’ is a contraction of ‘expected goals’. It essentially means the amount of goals a player is expected to score based on the quality and quantity of their shots – as such, it provides a useful method of analysing the finishing ability of footballers.

Jean-Philippe Mateta

Jean-Philippe Mateta had an excellent start to the season with Crystal Palace, earning him a spot in the France international squad. Since the turn of the year, however, the 28-year-old has scored just three Premier League goals for the Eagles.

On the face of it, some would put this down to a dip in form – in reality, Mateta has been struggling with injuries. He scored a brace in his last game, as Palace overcame Newcastle United by a score of 2-1 at Selhurst Park.

Mateta has scored ten goals in the Premier League this season, with an xG of 13.81 – as such, his overall goals to xG ratio stands at -3.81.

Kevin Schade

For a natural winger, Kevin Schade has accumulated a surprisingly high xG score this season, with an overall xG rating of 11.16 since the start of the campaign.

He has scored seven goals this season – these are impressive number for a player out wide, but they become less notable when his xG is taken into account.

Schade has had a strong season with Brentford, but one may suggest his finishing needs work. Overall, his xG to goals ratio is -4.16 this season.

Ollie Watkins

One shouldn’t be too surprised to see Ollie Watkins in a list such as this. It hasn’t been the Aston Villa man’s best season by any stretch, having scored just nine goals over the course of the campaign.

By comparison, Watkins scored 16 Premier League goals in the 2024/25 season – of course, he could still match or even exceed this tally with the season still ongoing, but it looks highly unlikely.

He has been getting his fair share of service, too. With an xG rating of 13.19 in the Premier League this season, Watkins has an overall goals to xG ratio of -4.19.

David Brooks

Out of all the players on this list, David Brooks has the lowest xG rating by a considerable margin. With just 5.65 xG to his name, one wonders how he could be so high up in a list such as this.

Then, when you look at the Welshman’s goals tally, it all begins to make sense – Brooks has only scored a single goal for Bournemouth in the Premier League this season.

As such, we can mark this down as a disappointing season for Brooks. A skilful winger, finding the back of the net on a consistent basis clearly isn’t his strongest suit.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has picked up a lot of praise this season – but is it warranted? Given his xG to goals ratio from the current campaign, these plaudits may be somewhat misplaced.

We don’t mean to be disparaging – with ten goals in 29 Premier League appearances this season, Calvert-Lewin certainly hasn’t had a poor year. Nevertheless, it certainly could’ve been better.

With an xG rating of 15.73, Calvert-Lewin has a goals to xG ratio of -5.73 – not something you want to see out of your star striker.