Supercomputer predicts surprise Champions League winner

Which teams look promising ... and which don't?

That Arsenal is leading the pack reflects more than just statistical noise. Its early form has been impressive, while rivals have already stumbled.

On Tuesday, Liverpool was stunned in Istanbul, beaten 1-0 by Galatasaray as Victor Osimhen converted from the spot. The defeat came on the back of a Premier League wobble, raising questions over its consistency in both domestic and European competition.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid made light work of Kairat Almaty behind a 5-0 win, with Kylian Mbappe hitting a hat trick to remind Europe of his potency. Bayern Munich also sent out a message with a 5-1 victory at Pafos, with Harry Kane striking twice alongside goals from Raphael Guerreiro, Nicolas Jackson and Michael Olise.

Wednesday’s fixtures added further twists. Arsenal saw off Olympiacos, 2-0, with Gabriel Martinelli opening the scoring before Bukayo Saka sealed the result late on. It was a sixth straight group-stage win that highlights its momentum domestically and abroad.

In Spain, PSG edged Barcelona, 2-1, thanks to Goncalo Ramos' stoppage-time strike, while Manchester City was held to a 2-2 draw in Monaco after Eric Dier’s last-minute penalty canceled out Erling Haaland’s brace.

These results have already shifted the model’s outlook. Liverpool’s slip weakens one of the favorites, creating space for so-called dark horses. Arsenal’s depth, boosted by its summer spending, is translating into sustained performances, while PSG continues to look capable of back-to-back triumphs. Bayern’s firepower, led by Kane, remains undeniable, but City’s lapses echo the problems that undermined it last season.

Of course, predictive models are no crystal ball. A few percentage points gained or lost after one result is far from decisive. What the Opta simulations do offer, however, is a snapshot of how the balance of power is evolving. Two matchdays in, the Champions League remains wide open, and the supercomputer suggests fans should expect more drama to come.