Millions Died from the Super El Niño in 1877. What Will Happen This Time?

Per The Washington Post:

“The climatic shift devastated crops nearly 150 years ago, raising the question of whether a similar disruption could threaten global food security yet again. The strongest El Niño on record from 1877 to 1878 fueled conditions that led to a global famine which killed more than 50 million people across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere. That was 3 to 4 percent of the estimated global population at the time, equal to at least 250 million people if it happened today.”=

In a study regarding the mass casualties following the 1877 El Niño, researchers wrote:

“It was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity and one of the worst calamities of any sort in at least the last 150 years, with a loss of life comparable to the World Wars and the influenza epidemic of 1918/19.”

Currently, the latest models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are showing water temperatures reaching 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. That would suggest a historic, Super El Niño.  

As University of Albany Professor of Atmospheric Science, Paul Roundy put it:

“The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month,” writes Roundy. “The model isn’t well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”

So, what do we do if this Super El Niño materializes? Batten down the hatches? Pile into the nuclear bunker? Probably not. Human technology has advanced drastically since the 19th century, but still, we could be in for a doozy this year.

Stay tuned.