ATP Nitto Finals Best Bets Including Alcaraz vs Musetti

ATP Nitto Finals Turin Group A

Fritz – De Minaur: 13.11.2025 14:00 CEST
H2H: 5-6

Taylor Fritz has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Turin, the American defeated Musetti in the opening group match in straight sets. He was great under pressure, offering and saving four breakpoints. Fritz ended the match with thirteen aces and zero double faults. This is his fourth appearance in the ATP Nitto finals. In the second group match, the American lost to Alcaraz in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court.  Last season, Fritz lost to Sinner in the final in straight sets.

Alex de Minaur has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Turin, the Australian lost the opening match to Alcaraz in straight sets. He led 5-3 in the opening set tiebreak, but fumbled under pressure. This is his second appearance in the ATP Nitto finals. In the second group match, de Minaur lost to Musetti in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. He led 5-3 in the deciding set, but fumbled under pressure. Last season, de Minaur did not make it past the group stage.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Fritz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played well so far this week in Turin, defeating Musetti and keeping it close against Alcaraz. On the other hand, de Minaur struggled in both matches. We expect Fritz to be a better player tomorrow and secure his spot in the semifinals.

That being said, Fritz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Taylor Fritz -3.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365

Alcaraz – Musetti: 13.11.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 7-1

Carlos Alcaraz has won three of his last five matches. This week in Turin, the Spaniard defeated de Minaur in the opening group match in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set tiebreak, but turned it around. Other than that, Alcaraz dominated throughout the match. In the second group match, the Spaniard defeated Fritz in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 6-7. This is his third appearance in the ATP Finals. He has never made it past the semifinals. Last season, Alcaraz lost in the group stage.

Lorenzo Musetti has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Athens, Musetti had a solid run. He was eventually stopped by Djokovic in the final, losing in three tight sets. Djokovic withdrew from the ATP Nitto finals, so Musetti got the spot. In the opening group match, Musetti lost to Fritz in straight sets. He mainly struggled on his serve, offering twelve breakpoints. In the second group match, Musetti upset de Minaur in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is in great form and leads 7-1 in head-to-head meetings against Musetti. In their only two head-to-head meetings, the Spaniard defeated Musetti in straight sets both times. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow.

That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365