ATP Race Update: Auger-Aliassime and Rune launch Shanghai surprise; Musetti under fire for spot in Turin Finals

While the Shanghai Masters is underway, most of the favorites have already been eliminated, with only three Top-10 players remaining in the competition and Novak Djokovic at the head of the draw. With the ATP Race to Turin entering its final stage, the fight for one of the eight spots in the ATP Finals is tightening, with Carlos Alcaraz (11,040 points) and Jannik Sinner (8,500 points) as the only players currently qualified, although several others are practically guaranteed a spot.

The ATP Race exclusively measures points earned in the calendar year—starting from the first week of 2025—and will award eight spots to Turin. Alcaraz secured his qualification after eight titles and two finals, while Sinner has three titles and four other finals. Between their trophies, they shared two Grand Slam titles each.

In 3rd place in the Race is Djokovic (4,380 points), who has his first chance to secure his 18th career qualification for the ATP Finals—a tournament he has won seven times. The Serb is the only Top-5 player still competing in the Shanghai Masters and, if he wins the title, will mathematically secure his qualification (the current Qualification Cut is at 4,940 points).

The good distance from his pursuers—and the few remaining tournaments—make the 24-time Grand Slam champion's qualification practically assured. With a calendar of barely 12 tournaments, he maintains a good distance from his pursuers (far from, for example, the 21 tournaments played by 4th-place Zverev). Semifinals at all four Grand Slams and the final at the Miami Open make Djokovic the leader of the second tier in the Race.

However, just behind him is German Alexander Zverev (4,230 points)—an Australian Open finalist and an ATP 500 champion. The German was tied with Djokovic, but his early elimination in the Shanghai Masters second round against Arthur Rinderknech definitively leaves him in 4th place, also close to achieving qualification, which would be the 8th time in his career.

The mid-pack battle: Americans, De Minaur, and Musetti

The top zone has Djokovic and Zverev on the verge of qualification, which "Nole" could guarantee this week. However, things get tighter starting from 5th place.

Taylor Fritz (3,785 points) arrived in Shanghai with good confidence after reaching the Tokyo Open final last week, but he was surprised by Giovanni Mpethsi Perricard and lost the chance to keep adding points in a wide-open draw marked by surprising defeats and injuries. His compatriot Ben Shelton (3,720 points) follows him closely in the battle to finish the year as American No. 1, but he was defeated in the first round by David Goffin in what was his first appearance after an injury that kept him out for the last few weeks.

The two players who would currently occupy the last two spots are Alex de Minaur (3,445 points) and Lorenzo Musetti (3,435 points). Both players remain in the competition in Shanghai—in the Round of 16—and will take the court this Wednesday looking to advance to the quarterfinals. Both players could gain positions by reaching at least the semifinals—leaving the Americans further behind—although the most important thing is certainly to take distance from those coming up behind, as there are no major threats for the moment.

The 9th spot is currently held by Jack Draper, who was injured in the latter part of the season and has already concluded his 2025, so he will not enter the dispute for a spot in the ATP Finals. The Brit's injury took some pressure off Musetti and De Minaur, as the three were in a close dispute for several weeks, but Draper's time off the courts ended up leaving him out of the Top-8.

Auger-Aliassime and Rune's Finals hope

The biggest 'threat' to the current top eight is Félix Auger-Aliassime (2,805 points), who is more than 600 points away from the 8th spot and qualification, but is still competing in the Shanghai Masters, where he surely has high hopes. The Canadian will face Musetti—precisely the 8th-place holder—and could continue to close the gap. If Auger-Aliassime reaches the final, he would practically be in a three-way tie with De Minaur and Musetti, and everything would be decided in the final weeks, with the Paris Masters still ahead.

Even more complicated is the case of Holger Rune (2,490 points), who is 12th in the Race and, to stay in the running, is practically forced to lift the title. It is impossible for the Dane to catch Musetti even if he wins the trophy, but he still has a couple of commitments to play in the final part of the year. Both Rune and Auger-Aliassime keep their chances of qualifying for the ATP Finals alive despite the distance, although reaching finals would be an essential requirement during the last weeks to dream of a spot in Turin.