ATP Shanghai Final Prediction: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot

Yes, it’s technically the pair’s first meeting — but you can go back to 2018 to when Rinderknech took out Vacherot at an ITF Futures tournament in a quarterfinal match, winning 6-2 6-4. That match came around the time the pair played college tennis together at Texas A&M University in Texas, and Rinderknech and Vacherot know each other’s game very well as a result. Their ITF meeting shouldn’t have any weight here.

On top of the trophy, ranking points and prize money at stake, what will feel different is that both Rinderknech and Vacherot won’t be facing off against a top-ranked opponent, perhaps creating some pressure and awkwardness. The two have been on a tear against Top 20 players in Shanghai: Vacherot has taken out opponents like Alexander Bublik, Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic, while Rinderknech has beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Zverev and now Daniil Medvedev. For Rinderknech, he’s an impressive 8-3 since June against Top 20 foes, as the current World No. 54. Vacherot is now 7-1 against Top 50 opponents in 2025. 

Most recently, Vacherot exploited Djokovic’s fitness struggles in a 6-3 6-4 semifinal win Saturday. Djokovic faced issues with his left leg, while Vacherot was able to fire 23 winners to just Djokovic’s nine, ultimately running the Serb off the court and tiring out the 38-year old. He also won an impressive 78% of first-serve points, an impressive stat against an avid returner like Djokovic. The final escape for the Monégasque saw him fend off a break point and win the semifinal with clutch serving.

Rinderknech was also on fire with his serve, but his flat, powerful forehand dictated much of the match against Medvedev. He served his way out of countless break point pressure points, saving 10 of 11 break points. The Frenchman’s key to winning on Sunday will simply be firing strong serves to control the rallies; that strategy on Saturday saw Rinderknech hit 48 winners and pressured Medvedev into taking risks.

It’s hard to tell who is the definite favorite, but Rinderknech has more experience long-term on the ATP Tour. Neither player has won an ATP title, with Rinderknech losing a brutal ATP 250 final in Adelaide in 2022 in his only tour-level final appearance. Rinderknech has a bit more firepower from the back of the court, and his ability to volley at the net could trouble Vacherot.

For Vacherot to win, he has to avoid making costly unforced errors — something obvious for any player, but especially pertinent to the Monégasque as he’s never been in such a high-profile situation like this during his career. The Frenchman’s experience and aggression leads me to pick Rinderknech in a close three-setter.

Prediction: Rinderknech in 3