ATP Shanghai Semifinal Predictions Including Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot

It’s semifinal time at the ATP 1000 event in Shanghai, and it’s been a tournament of havoc and upsets. Four players remain, two of whom are Grand Slam champions and seeds, while the other two are looking to continue their hot streak of upsets. LWOT previews and predicts the matches.

ATP Shanghai Semifinal Predictions

Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-0

While Rinderknech has surprised many by reaching it to this stage, perhaps Medvedev could say the same this week. After a rough 2025 season which has seen the Russian temporarily fall out of the Top 20 ATP Finals race, Medvedev has strung together four solid wins, the latest one a 6-4 6-4 beatdown over Alex de Minaur. Both players rely on flat, heavy hitting, but Rinderknech may dictate play with his faster serve. However, Medvedev is a bit more consistent and has the confidence in being this tournament’s 2019 champion. He also defeated Rinderknech in straight sets in their only meeting at the 2022 US Open. Look for Medvedev to continue his steady form with a win here.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2

Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot

Head-to-head: First meeting

Vacherot, with a ranking outside the Top 200, has stunned seven players this week as the underdog in what may be one of the best runs of the 2025 season. He’ll surpass his career high ranking dating back to June 2024, cracking the Top 100 and creating a good chance to qualify for the Australian Open main draw. In the way for Vacherot is the always-formidable Novak Djokovic, a four-time champion at the Shanghai Masters.

While Djokovic hasn’t been able to replicate his peak form this season, he should have the experience to win this match by using his defense to break down Vacherot’s powerful groundstrokes. Vacherot will have to serve well, otherwise the 24-time Grand Slam champion could expose the underdog with his strong return. Djokovic has notably struggled on break point opportunities in his last two matches, only taking three of nine chances in his quarterfinal win over Zizou Bergs.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2