Can Anyone Beat the new Carlos Alcaraz?

For some time now, it has been clear that Carlos Alcaraz has been maturing into an even better player and his victory over Jannik Sinner in the final at the US Open was arguably the culmination of that process.

Alcaraz dismantled Sinner in New York, and it’s fair to say he played the best match of his career. Why the best? Because it’s one thing to, say, crush Stefanos Tsitsipas in a Roland Garros quarterfinal, and quite another to overwhelm Sinner in a US Open final.

Before the match, Sinner was a slight favourite according to many. His greater mastery on hard courts and his ability to stay focused for the entirety of a match arguably tipped the scale in his favour, albeit only slightly. He had also beaten Alcaraz in what had become almost his own backyard at Wimbledon. But Alcaraz, since that defeat in SW19, had redoubled his efforts and arguably become an even better player. His win over Sinner was proof of that and the world #1 ranking is his reward.

But what does “better player” mean, exactly?

Well, imagine a player with a fantastic forehand and just as strong a backhand. Imagine a player with phenomenal volleys and an equally phenomenal drop shot. Imagine a player who returns brilliantly, moves superbly, and covers the court like few others. Imagine a player with high tennis intelligence, someone who consistently makes the right decisions about how to use his varied armoury. Now add to that a player who serves magnificently and stays in the zone for an entire match. Picture him, and then try to imagine if there is anyone who can beat that player.

Yesterday, Alcaraz played close to tennis perfection, and it was two aspects of his game – ones that in the past had given him trouble – that pushed him to that level. The fact that he already had five Grand Slam titles despite those weaknesses shows just how frighteningly good he is. But Sinner had raised the bar in the last two years, and it had become clear that the Spaniard lagged behind in certain areas, despite their head-to-head clashes typically favouring the Spaniard.

Alcaraz, for instance, had lapses in focus, both within matches and over the course of a season. His serve, too, had at times been a weakness to target. That was hardly unusual for someone still so young, but already before Roland Garros it was clear he was becoming that “next-level” player. What no one could have anticipated, however, was that he could serve the way he did in the US Open final. That was the element that made him practically unbeatable. And it wasn’t only about yesterday, though doing it against one of the best returners on tour gave it even greater weight, but because on his way to the title, Alcaraz won 98 of his 101 service games.

What did Alcaraz do to Sinner?

Since 1991, the only player to win a Grand Slam title while dropping three or fewer service games along the way was Pete Sampras. At Wimbledon 1994, he held 103 of 106 service games, and three years later at the same tournament he held 116 of 118. To do that requires tremendous focus and Alcaraz showed it. He entered the match fully charged and never let go of that intensity until the final point, which fittingly ended with an ace. At no moment in the match did he look nervous. He maintained sharpness, focus, and a positive mindset even in those stretches when it seemed Sinner might seize the initiative.

In the first set, Alcaraz was all over Sinner’s second serve, combining aggression and variation that knocked the Italian out of his rhythm. Some will again, out of context, babble about Sinner’s low first-serve percentage (48 percent in the match) and his uncharacteristic unforced errors. But that’s what Alcaraz did to him. He piled huge pressure on Alcaraz’s second serve, winning 33 percent of those points in the first set, 29 in the third, and 48 in the last. He did it with a mix of aggression and variety, totally destroying Sinner’s timing.

One smaller but important element in that story was Alcaraz’s cross-court slice, mysteriously absent from the Wimbledon final, which repeatedly dragged Sinner into hitting forehands short in the court. Sinner made at least five of his 16 total forehand unforced errors as a direct result, including two on break points. In the second set, Sinner restored some balance and looked as though he might take control, but Alcaraz quickly rediscovered his first-set form. From that point on, it felt like there was only going to be one winner.

Sinner kept struggling with his first-serve percentage and even with his first serve itself, because Alcaraz put impossible balls back into play in sequences that created relentless pressure. That pressure produced the match’s first real collapse from Sinner: at 2–2, 30-all in the fourth set, he double-faulted – almost certainly due to the pressue Alcaraz was putting on his second serve, and then, on break point, he missed a forehand from mid-court by just a few centimeters.

An unimaginable level

In the final game, Sinner threw everything he had at Alcaraz, but by then the Spaniard was moving so freely that he looked capable of matching him easily in the baseline rallies, where Sinner is usually at an advantage. The Italian did manage to save two consecutive match points, but Alcaraz then landed two first serves in a row, the second of which was the ace already mentioned.

In total, he hit 10 aces in the match and piled up a host of service winners. Still, it’s telling that at 5–3 in the fourth set, in rallies lasting fewer than five shots, Alcaraz had won 80 points to Sinner’s 55. In the end, Alcaraz lost just nine points on his first serve throughout the entire match. At one point, he even began recording unusually high speeds for himself (216 km/h), and overall, it was the shot where he made the biggest leap compared to the Wimbledon final.

But it was also a match that leaves a legitimate question hanging: is there anyone at all who can beat this version of Alcaraz?