Can Anyone Stop Jannik Sinner at the US Open?

Someone might answer “No” to the question in the title and end the article after a dozen words. And they wouldn’t even be that wrong, as Jannik Sinner has been proving to be the best player on hard courts for the last year and a half. Before his match against Auger-Aliassime at the Cincinnati Open, his win streak on this surface stood at 24. Since the beginning of 2024, he has also won three Slams (Australian Open ×2, US Open), the ATP Finals in Turin, three Masters 1000 titles (Miami, Cincinnati, and Shanghai, all in 2024), and the title in Rotterdam.

Can Anyone Stop Sinner at the US Open?

But there’s an even more impressive stat. Without counting Cincinnati, since the start of 2024, he has won 60 matches on hard courts and lost only three. And one of those losses has a sort of asterisk: in Montreal, he had to play twice on the same day, and it was his first tournament after a bout of tonsillitis that had forced him to miss the Olympics in Paris. No disrespect to Rublev, who earned the win on the court, but under different circumstances, the Italian likely would have won. So basically, the only player in the world who has managed to defeat him is Carlos Alcaraz – twice, both in 2024: at Indian Wells and in Beijing.

One True Rival: Carlos Alcaraz

What does this tell us, ten days before the US Open begins? First of all, Sinner is the clear favourite. Even the bookmakers give him a slight edge over his rival, Alcaraz. Nowadays, the Spaniard seems to be the only player who can truly challenge Sinner. Their last (and only) meeting in a Slam on hard courts was at the US Open in 2022, where Alcaraz saved a match point, emerged victorious from an epic five-setter, and went on to win the tournament – his first Grand Slam. Three years later, many things have changed, but at least Carlos still has a chance against Sinner, as he has proved several times recently.

What about the other players? The rankings suggest that the opponents most likely to challenge Sinner are Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz, ranked No. 3 and No. 4, respectively. Yet the last two Grand Slam finals tell a different story, as the World No. 1 earned comfortable wins over both without losing a set. Novak Djokovic also seems to have little chance: he couldn’t take a set off Sinner on clay or grass, so how can he trouble him on his favourite surface?

The Dangerous Outsider: Ben Shelton

In the top 10, the player who may have some chance is Ben Shelton. Some may point out that the American has lost his last six matches against Sinner – also without winning a set – but almost all of the sets were close (six tie-breaks played). Shelton also has something many other top players don’t: a big serve, as seen in the second set against Diallo in Cincinnati. A big server can cause Sinner problems. He admitted the risks of such matches, saying you could even lose them if you don’t play well in the key moments. That’s probably why he was glad it happened before (and not during) a Grand Slam.

As for the rest, it’s hard to name a third player who could challenge Sinner. Why? Because it would mean picking between players with a terrible head-to-head record (De Minaur, 0–10), others who struggle on hard courts (Musetti, Ruud), those dealing with injuries (Draper), and those going through a rough patch (Medvedev).

An Unexpected Contender: Holger Rune

But there is, in fact, one other rival: Holger Rune. The Dane defeated Sinner in their first two meetings, but more importantly, he kept challenging him after the Italian stepped up and became one of the best in the world. He did it at the ATP Finals in 2023 – where only Novak Djokovic managed to stop Sinner in the final (after losing to him in the round robin) – in Monte Carlo in 2024, and again this year at the Australian Open.

Eventually, it was always Sinner who won, but Rune managed to take a set every time. That says a lot about the Dane, who has the mental toughness to keep up with Jannik. Maybe it’s too soon to expect him to upset the World No. 1, especially as he has been inconsistent all year and has never gone past the fourth round at a Grand Slam on hard courts – but if he keeps working on his game, he has a chance in the future.