Can Ben Shelton Upset Jannik Sinner?

Ben Shelton is consistently delivering top results at the Majors and has established himself as the leading light of American men’s tennis. The 23-year-old is into yet another quarterfinal at the Australian Open as he looks to reach the semi finals for the second time in a row. He has started 2026 very well building on a strong 2025 season.

Path to the Quarterfinals

Shelton has had a non dramatic journey to the last eight as compared to some of his other quarterfinalists. That’s not to take away the quality of the opponents he has faced. Ugo Humber in the first round can be tricky but Shelton locked in during the tiebreakers and that was fantastic to see.

Valentin Vacherot, who won the 2025 Shanghai Masters, in the third round was another decent test for Shelton. The American again played a solid match on his serve and did not let up in a third set tiebreaker.

The fourth round against Casper Ruud was his greatest test yet as the Norwegian was increasingly looking like his old self. Despite dropping the first set, Shelton was not deterred as for the next three sets his serve was not broken and the American dominated proceedings with his electric game style.

The Jannik Sinner Conundrum

While Shelton has almost breezed through the first week, what he faces next will be anything but a breeze. He takes on the second seed and two time defending champion in Jannik Sinner. The head to head tells a startling story with Sinner leading 8-1. The lone win for Shelton came at their first meeting in Shanghai in 2023 but the American has lost eight straight since.

Perhaps the best barometer for the upcoming match will be their semifinal match at the last year’s Australian Open. Shelton was able to pretty much have the upper hand in the first set and even had set points to close it out but was unable to do so and lost the tiebreaker. What followed was a domination by Sinner in the next two sets.

Shelton will do well not to squander any chance he gets because similar to last year, things can go downhill very rapidly especially when Sinner gets in the mood. Shelton’s serve will be key as always but he will need to be ultra aggressive on any chance he gets as rallying with Sinner is a lost cause.

Our experts give Shelton only an outside chance to upset Sinner and with good reason. Sinner has dominated this rivalry and the American’s backhand is not very reliable. However, Shelton plays this game with a lot of heart and plenty of power, so with just a little bit of momentum who knows what the American can achieve.