Quarterfinal Curse: Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur Struggle to Break Grand Slam Barrier

For de Minaur, the Slam quarterfinal stage has been especially harsh. His four-set loss to Auger-Aliassime at this year’s US Open was the first time he even won a set in a quarterfinal. His other attempts:

• 2020 US Open: lost in straights to Dominic Thiem
• 2023 US Open: lost in straights to Jack Draper
• 2024 French Open: lost in straights to Alexander Zverev
• 2024 Wimbledon: withdrew before facing Novak Djokovic (groin injury)
• 2025 Australian Open: lost in straights to Jannik Sinner

de Minaur eluded to this situation, facing the media after his loss to Auger-Aliassime at the US Open “Right now, I’m looking at this like a wasted opportunity. It’s tough,” De Minaur admitted. “There’s no other way I’m probably gonna deal with this, but just seeing it straight, and that’s what today was. Today was an opportunity to break new ground. I was nowhere near the level I needed to be at. That’s frustrating, because you don’t get these chances often.”

Rublev’s history is longer, but just as frustrating. He has been swept aside by Novak Djokovic twice, Daniil Medvedev three times, Rafael Nadal, and Jannik Sinner — all elite champions. But the most painful losses may have come against Marin Čilić in a fifth-set tiebreak at Roland Garros 2022, and Frances Tiafoe later that year at the US Open. Each was a golden chance, and each slipped away.

The pattern is clear: Rublev’s power game is lethal against most players, but in best-of-five matches against elite opponents, he can be erratic, tire physically, and crumble mentally. De Minaur, on the other hand, lacks the firepower to hit through top opponents at this stage, relying instead on speed and counterpunching that often aren’t enough when the level rises deep into a Slam. He has also shown nerves in these big matches.

What’s Next?

Both men have achieved enough to suggest a Slam breakthrough isn’t impossible. Reaching quarterfinals year after year shows consistency, and eventually a favorable draw or an off-day from an opponent could open the door. Players such as Marin Čilić and Stan Wawrinka hit similar walls before eventually breaking through to win majors.

History offers perspective:

• David Ferrer reached 17 Slam quarterfinals, but also six semifinals and the 2013 Roland Garros final.
• Tommy Robredo never broke through, finishing 0–7 in Slam quarterfinals.
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (18 quarterfinals, 1 final), Kevin Anderson (6 QFs, 2 finals), and Gaël Monfils (10 QFs, 2 semis) all lived in the “almost” category.
• Tomas Berdych made a Slam final and multiple semis but was dubbed a “nearly man.”
• Marin Čilić and Stan Wawrinka, after years of frustration, became Grand Slam champions.

For Rublev and de Minaur, the question is whether they follow the path of Čilić and Wawrinka, or remain stuck like Robredo and Monfils.

They are unlikely to rise to the level of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, or Novak Djokovic, three of this year’s four US Open semifinalists. But tennis isn’t only about champions; it’s about endurance, heartbreak, and the pursuit of excellence. For Rublev and de Minaur, the pain is obvious, but so too is the possibility of triumph still to come.

Rublev’s coach, Fernando Vicente offered a similar perspective, in Tennis Temple he offered advice for both tennis, and life “Andrey must always remember to enjoy life, not to suffer at every tournament, and not to worry as much as if it were a matter of life and death.

Of course, we do all this work to win, but the mental strength is to accept defeat, not to put unnecessary pressure on ourselves, and to try to fight with good humor, and not to suffer mentally.”