US Open 2025 Men’s Preview: Draw Analysis, Key Matches, and Projections

On the other side of the quarter, Alex de Minaur has a great chance to make another second-week run at a Slam, with his biggest challenge before the quarterfinals likely coming against Karen Khachanov , a former semifinalist here in 2022. Out of form but still a crowd favorite, Stefanos Tsitsip as could be vulnerable to another early exit, especially against the tricky Alexandre Muller in the opening round.

Elsewhere, a possible Gael Monfils vs Felix Auger-Aliassime second-round clash promises popcorn entertainment, while Hamad Medjedovic vs Daniel Altmaier and Francisco Cerúndolo vs Matteo Arnaldi also stand out as intriguing early-round contests.

Upset Potential: Tsitsipas against Muller
Quarter Projection: Zverev def. Khachanov

Third Quarter: Djokovic, Rune, and Fritz Highlight a Stacked Third Quarter

Going for history in the form of a 25th Major title, Novak Djokovic opens his campaign against Learner Tien, a player half his age but full of potential. A possible clash with either Frances Tiafoe or Holger Rune down the line would make for great theatre, but even at this stage of his career, Djokovic seems to have only two problems: Sinner and injuries, neither of which should trouble him in this quarter.

The No.1 ranked American, Taylor Fritz , has a manageable draw to begin his championship run and, in truth, should make the quarterfinals if his legs hold up after what has been a hectic two-and-a-half months of tennis. His trickiest test before then could be against Jakub Mensík, but the Czech has yet to fully crack the code of best-of-five Grand Slam tennis.

Among the early rounds, Joao Fonseca vs Miomir Kecmanovic has the potential to be the loudest firs t-round match of the tournament, while Holger Rune vs Botic van de Zandschulp also stands out as one to keep an eye on.

Upset Potential: Rune against van de Zandschulp
Quarter Projection: Djokovic def. Fritz

Fourth Quarter: Shelton, Medvedev, and Ruud Stand in Alcaraz’s Path to the Semifinals

Arguably the best player in the world this season, Carlos Alcaraz opens his US Open campaign in what could be a tricky first-round test against the big-serving Reilly Opelka . If he navigates that early challenge, his path looks relatively manageable, though a potential fourth-round clash against Daniil Medvedev would be a blockbuster rematch of their 2023 semifinal.

On the other side of the quarter, No.2 ranked American Ben Shelton has a draw that should allow him to make at least the fourth round. Standing in his way could be Casper Ruud or Jiri Lehecka , but given Shelton’s current form and confidence on hard courts, he’ll be favored to book another major quarterfinal appearance.

Early-round intrigue comes in the form of Jiri Lehecka vs Borna Coric and Corentin Moutet vs Jordan Thompson, both of which promise high-quality rallies and highlight moments. Still, the marquee matchup of the opening round will be Alcaraz vs Opelka, a clash of contrasting styles tha t should draw plenty of attention, even if it doesn’t produce the cleanest tennis.

Upset Potential: Medvedev against Bonzi
Quarter Projection: Alcaraz d. Shelton

Final Thoughts

From Djokovic chasing history to “SinCaraz” fighting it out for the World No.1 ranking and the Americans looking for a home Slam run, every quarter of this draw has its drama waiting to unfold.

Who are your picks to make it out of each section, and who do you see lifting the trophy in New York? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments!