WTA Finals Race Breakdown: Rybakina or Andreeva in Riyadh

The WTA Finals in Riyadh are just 10 days away, and seven participants have already been confirmed. With only one spot remaining, we’ll take a look at who has the best chance to secure that final place in the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

This week features only two WTA events, and the outcomes at those tournaments will ultimately decide who makes it to Riyadh. The players who have already qualified are Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys, and Jasmine Paolini.

Still in contention for the final spot are Mirra Andreeva and Elena Rybakina. Rybakina, who competed at the event last year, has yet to secure her place this time around, although she has a strong chance.

Earlier in the season, Andreeva looked like a lock for the Finals after winning two WTA 1000 events. However, her form declined sharply in the second half of the year, putting her participation in serious doubt.

She suffered early exits in both the Wuhan and Ningbo events, failing to earn the points needed to clinch her spot in Riyadh. Meanwhile, Rybakina’s victory in Ningbo has put her firmly in control of the race for the final berth.

Andreeva has essentially conceded her WTA Finals chances by choosing not to compete this week, while Rybakina will be in action in Tokyo. She needs just two wins to surpass Andreeva, so all eyes will be on her performance there.

If Rybakina wins two matches, she’ll be heading to Riyadh in about 10 days. If she falls short, Andreeva will take the final spot. Rybakina enters the Tokyo event as the second seed and receives a first-round bye. In the second round, she’ll face either Maria Sakkari or Leylah Fernandez, both of whom have proven to be tough challenges for her in the past. Fernandez recently claimed a title as well, indicating she’s in top form.

To overtake Andreeva, Rybakina must win her second-round match and one more to earn the 166 points required. Reaching the semifinals would give her 195 points, which would seal the deal, but the draw is anything but easy.

Potential opponents in the quarterfinals include Eva Lys, Victoria Mboko, and Bianca Andreescu. None of them are pushovers. Either way, we’ll keep you updated every step of the way, so stay tuned.