Four college baseball teams that could crash the Super Regionals party

Clear your schedule and grab your favorite beverage – the NCAA D-I Baseball Tournament kicks off this weekend. Sixteen regional hosts look to clinch spots in the Super Regionals and each has little doubt about their own chances to advance. But as history tells us, they're not all headed that direction.

Here are four college baseball teams that could crash the Super Regionals party in the country's most underrated sporting event. Shield your eyes, Clemson and non-SEC fans. You might not like this one.

1. Kentucky Wildcats (29-24)

Look, these aren't hunches – we're using established data and proven models here. And those data and models suggest the No. 3 seed in the Clemson Regional could move forward. The Wildcats' starting rotation is strong – namely sophomore Ben Cleaver – and this region is made up of imperfect, incomplete teams.

The aggregate regional advance rate between College Baseball Insider (CBI), 643 Charts and PEAR metrics give Kentucky a 26.2 percent chance of advancing, third-best among No. 3 seeds. CBI lines UK with a 36.2 percent chance to advance to a Super Regional.

2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (34-21)

Heading into the SEC Tournament, Mississippi State won 10 of its final 12 games, including a sweep over Kentucky and a 2-1 series win over regional host Ole Miss. State has one of the best pitching-batting blends of any No. 3 seed, a big advantage against pitcher-driven Northeastern and host Florida State.

CBI gives the Bulldogs more than a one-in-three likelihood of winning the Tallahassee Regional (34.6 percent). Only 2.5 percent separates State and No. 2 seed Northeastern in terms of advancement in the aggregate.

3. Florida Gators (38-20)

To finish the season, Florida stole series wins over Alabama and tournament hosts Texas and Arkansas, finishing just shy of a hosting bid themselves. The Gators are the only power conference member of the Conway Regional, hosted by underrated Coastal Carolina.

No two-seed has a better implied likelihood of securing a Super Regional bid than Florida (31.9 percent). One of MLB's top prospects, Colby Shelton, gives the Gators needed star power and only seven tournament teams have a better field-independent pitching (FIP) mark on the season.

4. USC Upstate Spartans (36-23)

If there's a No. 4 seed ready to find its way to a Super Regional (and nearly Omaha), it's USC Upstate.

Upstate owns the best chance to advance of any No. 4 seed (10.9 percent), led by 643 Chart's 16 percent (note: this metric balances out advance rate starkly over others).

The reason? Its 157 wRC+ (weighted runs created), bested only by Duke, Tennessee and Arkansas. Pitching isn't this region's forte and the Spartans could take advantage of a slip-up from any of the other teams.