College football Week 8 Top 25 betting guide

SMU is 1-5 ATS on the season and that includes five straight ATS losses. They might be getting a little bump for being at home and I don't like the hook but Cincinnati is the more complete team. This game has upset potential but SMU has failed to come through this season. At this point, they are what they are. 

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 30 - SMU 24
A great teaser spot because of that hook but good value either way. 

Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -29.5
Total: 49.5

Iowa continues to struggle on offense, and that might be putting it lightly. They don't move the ball well and they don't punch it into the end zone so even though their defense is elite they struggle. It is hard to see that changing much on the road. Ohio State was off last week so they should be primed to make a statement. When they are healthy they are probably the best offensive team in the country. That is why no spread is really out of reach. 

Don't put much stock that Iowa has covered the last two games against OSU, those were in 2017 and 2013. Their inability to score is going to wear the defense down eventually. This is a very big number for a Big Ten game not involving Rutgers.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 33 - Iowa 7
This does feel like a little too much of a margin for the Buckeyes to cover even though the game will be comfortable throughout. 

Syracuse Orange at Clemson Tigers
Spread: Clemson -13.5
Total: 49.5

This is probably the end of being undefeated for Syracuse. No matter the result they have had a nice start, even beating NC State in convincing fashion, a game most thought would be close, but really wasn't. Clemson has had some struggles with Syracuse in the past but they are at home for this one and getting healthier. They have probably done enough to this point that as long as they keep winning they are in the playoffs. Thanks to lighter scheduling in the ACC of course. 

I think we are getting a nice value bump with the home side just because Syracuse is ranked and hasn't lost yet. I would have made this one closer to 20 points because once the Tigers shut down Syracuse's run game they are going to have no way to counter. 

Score Prediction: Clemson 41 - Syracuse 20
This is one I think the Tigers are in control of the whole game so 1st quarter and 1st half lines are also good. 

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Spread: Texas -6.5
Total: 61.5

Texas gutted out a win last week against Iowa State. As predicted the Cyclones played them tough after the Longhorns dominated Oklahoma and the win keeps Texas in the hunt in the Big 12. Texas has shown they can compete with really good teams, but they also play down to their competition some. Oklahoma State was on the road last week and played TCU to overtime before losing. It is a game they should have won though so this could be a letdown spot. The Cowboys have moved the ball against everybody this season. 

This line feels fishy. Texas might have the most stars when you rate its roster but the Longhorns have not won on the road this season and I think they are overrated after that win against OU. I am not sure they are a TD better than OK State this season.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 38 - Texas 35
The Pokes have scored against everyone. They will keep the pressure on the Longhorns to keep pace. 

Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers
Spread: LSU -1.5
Total: 67.5

Ole Miss is the undefeated team nobody is talking about; even Syracuse seems to be getting more pub. That is because nobody expects them to emerge from their remaining gauntlet of a schedule triumphantly but underrating the Rebels is risky. They might not have that one elite element but they don't have a weakness either. LSU rebounded from their humbling loss to Tennessee by beating Florida last week. That does not carry as much cachet this season but the Tigers are actually in the hunt in the SEC West right now. They have just one loss in conference play and have shown improvement over the course of the season.

I thought Ole Miss would get a little more respect with this line but fading LSU in Death Valley is a tough thing to do, even for oddsmakers. I like the Rebels to get their first win at LSU in a while. 

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 31 - LSU 27
This will be one of the more entertaining and meaningful games of the day. I think we can get it to +3 if we wait until kickoff. 

UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks
Spread: Oregon -5.5
Total: 70.5

UCLA did not play last week and brings their undefeated record up to Eugene. After Syracuse, the Bruins have to be the least likely undefeated team still remaining. UCLA is still a bit of a mystery to me but with Chip Kelly as coach they should be well prepared for what is coming at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have continued to show that their humiliating loss to Georgia was an aberration. If they win on Saturday it will be easy for them to make the case as the best team in the Pac-12 at this point of the season. This is a well-rounded, tough group.

The line here is bigger than expected and prime for a teaser. Oregon is 4-1 ATS since the Ducks got hammered by the Dawgs. Getting them as favorites by less than a TD at home shows a narrowing of the gap by UCLA that might not be there.

Score Prediction: Oregon 35 - UCLA 24
UCLA responds after an early punch from Oregon but not enough to really threaten the Ducks.

Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave 
Spread: Tulane -7.5
Total: 56.5

In this matchup, it is actually Tulane that is the ranked team. It is still a mystery how they lost to Southern Miss, but their win over Kansas State has aged really well. The Green Wave are 6-1 SUATS but the back half of their schedule is much tougher. Memphis is not having the same level of success and is looking to bust up a two-game losing streak. They lost in OT on the road last week to ECU so another road game is going to be a tough spot to turn it around.

When you see those -7.5 they are daring you to take the underdog, or tease it. Tulane is winning with strong defense this season so backing them to hold a lead is not too daunting. 

Score Prediction: Tulane 31 - Memphis 24
A 7.5 point spread almost has to be teased otherwise you are not playing the "game." I would lean to the home side here. 

Boston College Eagles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons 
Spread: Wake Forest -20.5
Total: 61.5

All of this talk about Syracuse aside it is a very real possibility that the second-best team in the ACC is Wake Forest. They are 5-1 SUATS and the only blemish on their record is a loss to Clemson in OT. This should be a pad-the-stats kind of game for the Demon Deacons. BC just lost to Clemson by 28 points last week and things have not gone well in Chestnut Hill this season. When the QB came back there was optimism, but the Eagles have struggled to move the ball and the defense has only been marginally better. The program has regressed this season.

Last year this game was a 41-10 victory for Wake Forest. That feels like a pretty good expectation again, especially in Winston-Salem.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 41- Boston College 10
Wake Forest has become one of the truly elite scoring teams. They move the ball on everybody so a big number is totally doable. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide
Spread: Alabama -21
Total: 60.5

Mississippi State was supposed to have an easy time with Kentucky last week, but that was far from the case as they lost outright as a road favorite. Things do not get easier this week, though their passing attack could have some success against Alabama, which was just shredded through the air by Tennessee. However, do you really want to face an Alabama team that is coming off a loss? There is nothing wrong with the Crimson Tide offense right now, that's for sure.

In the last four seasons, Alabama has dominated in this matchup. They have not given up more than nine points in a game and shut out MSU both times at home. Mike Leach has had success against other SEC programs but not Nick Saban's.

Score Prediction: Alabama 45 - Mississippi State 10
How can you ignore the recent dominance of the Crimson Tide? I know you could say the same thing about their dominance of Tennessee but you can't fade them two in a row. 

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Spread: Penn State -4.5
Total: 44.5

Penn State saw its undefeated campaign come to a halt last week as Michigan literally ran all over them. Losing QB Sean Clifford didn't help either, but the most he would have done was give them a chance to make it more respectable. Returning home makes a big difference this week. Minnesota has a very balanced offense so they have to like their chances against a deflated PSU team. That is if they can get up off the mat too. They have lost back-to-back games after starting the season 4-0. 

That total feels low but perhaps not. Penn State is an easy favorite at home against a team that has lost outright as a favorite the last couple of weeks. 

Score Prediction: Penn State 27 - Minnesota 20
It is hard to have much confidence in either side right now so leaning the home team makes the most sense.

Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs
Spread: TCU -3.5
Total: 54.5

TCU is now the lone unbeaten team in the Big 12, but Kansas State has no league losses this season. That makes this a big one. Kansas State has been very effective thanks to the QB/RB combo of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn. Just because you know it is coming does not make it any easier to stop. TCU is a little more diverse in its attack but new coach Sonny Dykes has the Horned Frogs humming and they just keep finding ways to win. 

TCU is the favorite at home but that line says these teams are close to each other on the field. I agree and expect a game where whoever has the ball last wins it. TCU has played a lot of those already so they are primed.

Score Prediction: TCU 38 - Kansas State 31
Just like a 7.5 teasing a 3.5 makes a lot of sense here. You just have to wait until the end of the day to see what happens which is never fun.