Despite heartbreaking loss to No. 20 Texas, No. 9 Vanderbilt still has path to CFP

No. 9 Vanderbilt was trying to knock off its third consecutive top-20 foe on Saturday at No. 20 Texas, but the Commodores came up a little short after mounting a furious fourth-quarter comeback.

Despite the 34-31 road setback, Vanderbilt can still get to the 12-team College Football Playoff, but for the remainder of the 2025 regular season, the Commodores have zero margin for error.

Vanderbilt's final three regular-season games are home against Auburn and Kentucky and then on the road versus No. 14 Tennessee in an in-state rivalry battle.

Those first two Southeastern Conference contests are absolutely winnable. Vanderbilt's game against the Volunteers will be tough. Tennessee, on Saturday night, was set to host No. 18 Oklahoma in Knoxville.

However, if the Commodores (7-2 overall, 3-2 SEC) were to sweep that trio of encounters, Vanderbilt would end the 2025 regular season at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in SEC play.

Vanderbilt has a legit path to the CFP

A 10-win regular season, in the country's toughest conference, would give the Commodores a strong case to land an at-large bid to the 12-team CFP.

Vanderbilt has three victories over teams that were ranked when they played. The Commodores defeated South Carolina on the road and both LSU and Missouri at home.

Plus, Vanderbilt's losses are "good" setbacks, so to speak. The Commodores fell to Alabama, which is now No. 4 in the country, on the road, along with the three-point loss to Texas on Saturday in Austin.

One thing not helping Vanderbilt's CFP case is that the Commodores and the Longhorns could be among those vying for one of the final at-large invites to the College Football Playoff, and Texas owns the head-to-head over Vanderbilt.

On Saturday, the Longhorns led 34-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Commodores rattled off 21 straight points to pull within a field goal. In the game's final minute, Vanderbilt nearly covered an onside kick, but it didn't happen, and Texas held on.

Both quarterbacks, Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia and Texas' Arch Manning, played well, with each signal-caller throwing for more than 325 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

If the Commodores hadn't gotten themselves in such a big hole earlier in the game, Vanderbilt could have completed its fourth-quarter comeback and beat Texas on the road. Even with that outcome, though, the Commodores can control their own CFP destiny.