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Collin Morikawa tees off at the Memorial Tournament on May 30, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Why these three stars have no shot to win U.S. Open

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Jun 11, 2025 10:33 AM ET

Oakmont Country Club presents an extremely demanding test that only an elite player can tackle. The winner of the 2025 U.S. Open — set Thursday-Sunday near Pittsburgh — will likely come from the top of the odds board, but it won't be any of these three stars.

Here's why:

Collin Morikawa

When Morikawa knocked off two major championships in his first eight starts, we thought we were witnessing the start of a historic major career. Well, he's now gone 14 straight major starts without another win, and he's failed to finish inside the top 10 in four straight.

This is a brutal golf course for Morikawa because of his lack of distance off the tee. He'll hit fairways and stay out of trouble, but the sheer length of Oakmont requires Morikawa to be brilliant in every other facet of the game. The American has lost strokes from around the green in five of his past six starts, and his past three tournaments marked his three worst iron performances of the season.

Morikawa's game isn't clicking the way it needs to be for him to contend at Oakmont.

Justin Thomas

It was great to see Thomas score his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship earlier this year at the RBC Heritage, but there's a reason it came at that tournament. Harbour Town Golf Links is a short, positional golf course that doesn't require a driver off most tees. That's why Thomas was able to dial in his irons and fairway woods on his way to the victory.

So much talk about “what would X handicap shoot at Oakmont”…
Why don’t we find a way to make it happen? Have a 5, 10, 18 whatever handicap play Monday after the @usopengolf. Back tees full rules of golf, and see what happens? May have to let a few groups thru and allow for 6-7…
— Justin Thomas (@JustinThomas34) June 10, 2025

That won't be possible at Oakmont, as a golfer must be aggressive with driver on nearly every hole to give himself birdie opportunities. The problem is that missing fairways brings big numbers into play because of the thick rough and deep bunkers littered all over the property.

In his past two starts, which came at similarly long courses that demand drivers off the tee, Thomas missed the cut at the PGA Championship and finished T31 at the Memorial. He also lost strokes on approach in both tournaments because he was playing from the rough too often.

Brooks Koepka

It's time to admit Koepka might be over the hill.

The 35-year-old used to be a lock to contend in major championships as long as he was healthy, but that's no longer the case. Koepka has finished cut, cut, T43, T26, T26, T45 and T64 in his past seven major starts. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship by eight and the Masters by three, and he hasn't been playing any better on LIV Golf.

In eight LIV starts this season, Koepka ranks 38th in driving accuracy, 34th in greens in regulation percentage and 30th in scrambling. And remember, there are only 54 players on LIV, and many of them are past their prime. Koepka might just be a member of that crew.

TV broadcast information (all times Eastern):
Thursday, June 12: 6 a.m.-5 p.m (USA Network), 5-8 p.m. (Peacock)
Friday, June 13: 6:30 a.m.-1 p.m.; 7-8 p.m. (Peacock), 1-7 p.m. ET (NBC)
Saturday, June 14: 10 a.m.-noon (USA Network), noon-8 p.m. (NBC)
Sunday, June 15: 9 a.m.-noon (USA Network), noon-7 p.m. (NBC)

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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