Originally written on The Outside Corner  |  Last updated 11/14/14
Royals_vs_twins_adcf

From our Twins season preview last Friday...

Burning Question
Is Francisco Liriano ever going to consistently be an ace pitcher?

In his rookie year of 2006, at age 22, Francisco Liriano threw 121 innings for the Twins, striking out 144 with a 2.16 ERA. He was worth 4.1 fWAR. That season remains the second best of his career. He blew out his elbow and didn't throw an inning in 2007, and while recovering in 2008, he split the year between AAA Rochester and Minnesota, throwing a combined 194 innings between the two levels, striking out 180 and walking 63. It wasn't a bad effort, but the fact that most of his year was spent in AAA was a red flag to some people. In 76 innings in the majors that season, Liriano struck out just 67 and walking 32.

Liriano spent all of 2009 in the majors, and it was a borderline disaster. He had a 5.80 ERA, struck out 122 and walked 65. The major sticking point with Liriano was the 21 homers he allowed. Liriano also only started 24 games that season, while also coming out of the bullpen five times. 2010 was the year that gave his fans hope, as he made 31 starts, struck out 201 (more than a batter per inning), and only walked 58. Plus, he cut the homers down to just nine. GLORY GLORY IN THE HIGHEST!

Things went in an opposite direction in 2011, which gave rise to the doubters again. He only made 24 starts, and had a career low strikeout rate and a career high walk rate (112 strikeouts and 75 walks in 134 1/3 innings). The homers also spiked, as he allowed 14 dingers that year. Liriano's career path is bizarre. He has a four win season, a six win season, and three one win seasons. What the hell?

Looking at Liriano's one win seasons, I noticed a trend. In each of those three seasons, his average fastball velocity was under 92 miles per hour. In his two good seasons, his velocity was over 93.5 miler per hour. That's a pretty significant spike, which tends to point towards injuries. It also appears that in those two seasons with increased velocity, Liriano threw his fastball under 50% of the time, while in the one win seasons, he threw it over 50% of the time. Coincidence, or the sign of a bigger problem?

Liriano's success is tied into his fastball: how much he uses it, and how hard he throws it. When his fastball is thrown harder, and used more sparingly, he's successful. When it's not thrown as hard, and used more frequently, he struggles. This points to injuries for me. When he's healthy, Liriano is an awesome pitcher. He's qualified for one ERA title during his career. Hell, he's thrown more than 140 innings in the majors just once in his career. At his raw core, Liriano is a dominant pitcher. But it all comes down to health. If he's able to stay healthy, Liriano can be the class of the Twins rotation. If not, he's a back-end starter who can't be counted on for much.

We can't really solve the problem of consistency, though. Liriano is now 28, and has thrown less than 700 career innings. While he's sublimely talented, the Twins really can't count on him to consistently provide a good performance for their team. He's worth the $5.5 million he's making this season, and if he turns in a healthy year, some team would probably be willing to give him something in the range of a three year, $30 million deal this offseason. But if he has another 130 inning disaster, he should consider himself lucky if he gets $2 million. Liriano is a huge risk/huge reward kind of pitcher, and this season will be key in determining just what becomes of his career.

[follow]

{loadposition content4}

GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Jon Jones’ manager: Former champ may never fight again

No easy solution to the problem of early NFL draft entrants

Josh Smith: Rockets played ‘hero ball’

Pacquiao to have surgery to repair 'significant' shoulder tear

Chris Paul ruled out for Game 1 against Rockets

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Stephen Curry thanks father in touching MVP speech

Lawrence Taylor's son pleads guilty to statutory rape

49ers FB Bruce Miller charged with vandalism

Report: Winston snubbed ESPN out of draft interview

Report: Some Colts players unhappy with first-round pick

Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff: Focus is on Julio Jones contract

What’s next for the San Antonio Spurs

Five players on the block after the NFL Draft

Five overhyped NFL Draft storylines that didn't play out

WATCH: Chris Johnson wants to play for the Cowboys

WATCH: Chewbacca throws out 1st pitch at Red Sox game

WATCH: Kyrie Irving carves up Bulls' defense for layup

WATCH: Metallica goes Jimi Hendrix for national anthem

Brandon McCarthy shares disturbing info about himself

Ole Miss fan got pregnant because of upset over Alabama

Willie Cauley-Stein legally changes middle name to 'Trill'

Marcus Mariota welcomed to Tennessee with billboard

Five takeaways from the first round of the NBA playoffs

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

No easy solution to the problem of early NFL draft entrants

What’s next for the Spurs

Cauley-Stein changes middle name to 'Trill'

NFL has Los Angeles Rams webpage

10 undrafted free agents to watch

Report: Winston snubbed ESPN

Life without Love: The new-look Cavs

Drafted player changes Twitter name to ‘Pick 245′

Floyd Mayweather Punch Out mock video game is great

Report: Steph Curry to be NBA MVP

Kelly: Tebow here to compete for job

Tony Allen booed for being rude?

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.