2025 AL Wild Card Preview: Tigers vs. Guardians

When these two teams met last year in the ALDS, the tale of the offenses looked very different. The Tigers scored just 682 runs during the 2024 regular season. This year, Detroit’s offense spiked considerably.

As noted in our look at the Tigers’ postseason team a few days ago, Detroit’s offense was buoyed by a more balanced, deeper lineup. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson both surpassed the 30-home run marker. Kerry Carpenter, who should start every game in this series given the projected starters for Cleveland, nearly hit that marker.

However, the Tigers’ offense of late has not been great. Riley Greene hit .195 with 31 strikeouts over 23 games in September, while Wenceel Perez and Gleyber Torres barely hit above .200. The real star of the offense this month has been journeyman Jahmai Jones.

Jones hit .424 with six extra-base hits in September, with three of those being home runs. He hit a massive home run to lead off the game on September 25 against Parker Messick, who’s not scheduled to start in this series.

As for the Guardians, it’s been more of the same, compared to 2024. Cleveland’s offense didn’t rank among the elite in 2024. But in 2025, no team in the American League scored fewer runs than Cleveland.

Still, that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.

The Guardians’ lineup came alive over the final four weeks of the year. Jose Ramirez picked up 14 extra-base hits in September, while Bo Naylor hit .290 with three home runs and 16 runs driven in. That RBI total was second-most on the team behind only Ramirez.

There’s not a lot of true home run power on this team, even though the Guardians had eight players in double-digits in home runs over the regular season. How the Guardians beat teams is how they’ve done it over the past few years: make contact, get on base, and cause chaos.

A Look at the Pitching

The Game 1 matchup should be highly entertaining.

Tarik Skubal returns to where his last playoff start occurred, one that ended with a grand slam from Lane Thomas off a middle-middle fastball that pushed the Guardians to the ALCS.

Skubal dominated the Guardians, though, in the regular season this year. The likely 2025 AL Cy Young winner struck out 40 (38.5% K%) Guardians this season and held them to a .461 opponent’s OPS. He only allowed one home run and two earned runs in total.

Detroit has not announced who will start Games 2 & 3. Jack Flaherty, who struck out 188 this season, faced the Guardians in each of his final two outings and did not pitch over the final weekend. Flaherty gave up four runs over 9.1 IP in those starts.

But if last year was any indication, expect A.J. Hinch to heavily leverage his bullpen.

The Guardians, meanwhile, have announced their starters for all three games. Gavin Williams, one of the best pitchers in the second half, will be followed by Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi.

Williams is a power pitcher who doesn’t get a ton of chases. However, what Williams can do — when he’s on — is overwhelm with the fastball up, then play the curve and sweeper off it. The Guardians right-hander can throw that curveball for strikes, something very dangerous when executed well. Williams finished 2025 with 80 called strikes on curveballs, tied with Seth Lugo.

The Guardians’ Game 1 starter chewed up the Tigers this season. He struck out 29 over 17 frames, and posted a 1.06 ERA against Detroit.

Bibee, the Game 2 starter, struck out 13 over his last 12 innings, all of which were against the Tigers.

Our Prediction

This series has the chance to be something special. Both teams have seen their top starters often. Both teams have very good bullpens.

Cleveland comes in as a scorching-hot team. The Tigers, meanwhile, haven’t had a good few weeks; in fact, it wouldn’t be hyperbole to state that Detroit backed in after having firm control of the AL Central just four weeks ago.

We’ll go with the Guardians and the hot hand.