Found January 23, 2013 on Obstructed View OLD:
A lot of things have been said and written about him over the last year so I thought a closer look at Brett Jackson was appropriate. We'll also take a closer look at Josh Vitters later on. Brett Jackson has come to be defined by his strikeouts and will continue to be defined that way until he shows he can make contact more frequenty than he has. Strikeouts have been a problem for him going all the way back to his college days. Jackson's strikeout rate at each level where he's had 100 or more plate appearances are below. 2009 A-: 18.9%, 106 PA 2009 A: 25%, 128 PA 2010 A+: 20.2%, 312 PA 2010 AA: 23.5%, 268 PA 2011 AA: 24.9%, 297 PA 2011 AAA: 29.8%, 215 PA 2012 AAA: 33.8%, 467 PA 2012 MLB: 41.5%, 142 PA As a college draft pick, Brett Jackson's 18.9% strikeout rate in short-season Boise was especially high even though it's only 18.9%. We see by the time he's really at an age appropriate level for prospects his strikeout rate increased to 23.5% (roughly 24.2% over his 500+ PA at AA). At AA it increased it even more, which is what we'd expect and at the MLB level it was absurd. Let's get one thing clear at this point: Brett Jackson is not going to have any long-term success at the MLB level if his strikeout rate is as high or even nearly as high as it was at the MLB level in 2012. We should expect that rate to regress next season just because it's quite unlikely his true talent strikeout rate is over 40%. I didn't even want to focus on strikeouts as much as I have here. There is more to a player than one skill. Few players are great at everthing. Players combine various skills at the MLB level and even for really good players these skill levels can vary. Aramis Ramirez was a very good hitter, but rather poor defensively and and he was also bad on the bases. He made up for his weaknesses by hitting for average, power and being better than average at getting on base. Most Major League players will have varying skill sets. Brett Jackson will probably never be very good at hitting for average. Even if his strikeout rate drops considerably, it's still going to be high. As a result, he will hit for a low average unless he can somehow sustain a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). And we know BABIP tends to be around .300 so I think we can safely say that Jackson won't be hitting for a high average. In 2011 I was thinking Brett Jackson might hit about .240/.340/.440 at he MLB level with above average defense at a premium position. I'm not ready to adjust that downard just yet. Brett Jackson does do some things well. Lost in all the talk about his strikeouts is talk about what those things are. He's always gotten on base in the minor leagues. His minor league OBP was 97 points higher than his batting average. He's very good at getting on base via walk. Despite a putrid .175 batting average at the MLB level last season, his OBP was .303. National League average was .318. Among players with 140 or more plate appearances last season, Brett Jackson's 15.5% walk rate was 5th best in baseball. We can expect his walk rate to regress just like we can his strikeout rate, but Jackson is very good at getting on base without a base hit. His .167 ISO isn't great or anything, but during his first taste of big league action, it's better than I expected. He does have some power to go along with his ability to get on base. He also plays defense well according to many scouts. If Jackson could cut the strikeout rate down to a more manageable level, I still think there's a very good chance he can be a productive MLB player. The best case scenario for Jackson is that he overcomes his strikeout issues and goes on to become the star player that he is capable of becoming. Though he'll never be a contact hitter and will have higher than usual strikeout rates, he could lower it enough to become a very good player. Time isn't necessarily on his side at this point. He turned 24 in early August so we shouldn't expect his skill level to improve all that much at this point. That being said, there's really only one issue holding him back. Dale Sveum seems confident they've fixed the issues with his swing so it will be interesting to see how he does in 2013. He should be the everyday starter, but will probably have to earn the job in spring training. The worst case scenario is that his strikeout rate continues to be ridiculously high, though not at all likely to be as high as in 2012. If that happens, he'll probably be relegated to a bench role. If he can excel against right handers, he could be effective in that role. He won't be as valuable as we once thought he could be, but there's still value in a left handed hitting bench player who can play all three outfield spots, hit for power and draw walks. That's especially true considering that role would mean that a higher percentage of his plate appearances would come against right handed pitchers. The post A closer look at Brett Jackson appeared first on Obstructed View.
THE BACKYARD
BEST OF MAXIM
RELATED ARTICLES

Better Know a Cub: Lendy Castillo

I actually like Lendy Castillo a fair bit. Lendy Castillo was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006… as a shortstop. He actually showed considerable promise on the defensive side, but could not hit to save his life. 2007: 684 OPS 2008: 566 OPS 2009: 453 OPS After it was apparently there was no way he was going to hack it even as an all-glove shortstop, the Phillies ended...

Sammy Sosa Wants The Cubs To Retire His #21 (Video)

Sammy Sosa had an opportunity to go down in history as one of the best Chicago Cubs ever.  Then in 2003 a report came out that labeled Sosa as one of many players the used PED’s, and well the rest is history. Sosa now says he’s ready to forgive the Cubs, and during a live webcast that he set up, stated that the Cubs should have been retired his #21 jersey via ESPN Chicago. “I...

The Chicago Cubs 42 Man Roster Needs to Get to 40, While Still Fixing a Glaring Hole

I am not sure how closely you have been paying attention, but the Chicago Cubs have been making a number of free agent signings over the off season making their 40 man roster a mess, Their free agent signings did not stop last night when reports came out of the newest acquisition Scott Hairston, formerly with the New York Mets. Even though the ball club has not yet confirmed the...

Cubs seek help for renovation plan

The Chicago Cubs plan on restoring Wrigley Field, with or without the city's help. The team announced a five-year, $300 million plan to rebuild the Friendly Confines at the annual Cubs Convention on Saturday, and owner Tom Ricketts said his family is willing to foot the entire bill -- but only if some long-standing restrictions are lifted. "[We would] like to be treated...

Spring Training Broadcast Schedule Announced

Less than one month until Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air! WGN Radio will broadcast nine games. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the rest are covered on Gameday Radio, as was the case last year. No word yet on any televised games, though I would be surprised if any are non-weekend games. The post Spring Training Broadcast Schedule Announced appeared first on Obstructed View.

Colin Kaepernick picked pro football over pitching

Chicago Cubs scout Sam Hughes watches Colin Kaepernick nowadays and still wonders what the strong-armed NFL quarterback might look like on a pitching mound, as a power arm in the pros. It's hard not to, seeing the zip and accuracy on each throw, the competitive fire and focus. The Cubs never even watched Kaepernick throw a baseball before drafting him in the 43rd round almost...
COOPERSTOWN CALL

Sosa: McGwire and I should be in Hall

Sammy Sosa answered several questions during a web chat, and he said that he and Mark McGwire should be in the Hall of Fame.

Sources: Cubs, Hairston agree to deal

The Chicago Cubs, adding another veteran to their outfield, have reached agreement with free agent Scott Hairston on a two-year contract, according to major league sources. Hairston, 32, figures to platoon with another free-agent signee, Nate Schierholtz, in right field. David DeJesus is projected to be in center and Alfonso Soriano in left. The New York Mets, New York Yankees...

Sosa says he and McGwire belong in Hall of Fame

Sammy Sosa thinks he and fellow steroid-tainted star Mark McGwire belong in the Hall of Fame. Slammin' Sammy also said the Chicago Cubs should retire his number, and he left open the possibility of running for president of the Dominican Republic during an interview Wednesday on the website Ustream.com. Asked if he thinks he or McGwire belong in the Hall, Sosa said: ''...

Cubs Convention 2013- Mixed review.

After a whirlwind weekend and trying to get back to “real life”, I finally have a chance to sit down and give my take on the Convention this past weekend.  Now, keep in mind, I went to the Convention with my 13 year old son who lives and breathes baseball, so this weekend was to be more about him than seminars and Q&A sessions.  I would have loved to get to more of the...

Worse Presidential Candidate: Sammy Sosa Or Wilmer Valderrama?

Last we checked in on former Chicago Cubs slugger Sammy Sosa, he allowed me to absolutely, 100% legitimately spend two days with him and his new public relations team, as they are trying to attempt to rebuild his image with the hopes of getting him back into the good graces of the incredibly evil Baseball Writers Association of America. Basically, it seems that Sosa wants to get...

Sammy Sosa speaks his mind. Yawn!!

Sammy Sosa woke up.   Someone must’ve told him he didn’t get elected to the Hall of Fame.  Now he’s all over the media talking about he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and how the Cubs should’ve retired his number a long time ago.   To the first point, I say no. [...]

Images and Details Show Possible Rebirth of Wrigley Field

Since the Ricketts family purchased the Chicago Cubs, one of the looming questions has been renovating baseball’s second-oldest ballpark in Wrigley Field. With the Red Sox completing a 10-year renovation to the league’s oldest ballpark, it was shown that renovation over a completely new facility could be done in a way that would modernize even the oldest of structures to allow...
MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.