Found April 20, 2013 on
Waiting For Next Year:
With Friday night’s disheartening 3-2 loss at the Houston Astros, your Cleveland Indians are now 5-10 on the season. They’ve lost 110 of 13 since winning the first two ballgames of the season and have lost five straight dating back to Sunday afternoon against Chicago.
First, the important news: It’s sensationally early in the season. According to some preliminary math, it would appear that 15 games is slightly less than one-tenth of the 162-game usual MLB schedule. That means that if the Indians are to be a .500 team — as many of us WFNY writers predicted only a few weeks ago — then there’s still plenty of time to make up only 5 games.
But then you get into why this losing streak has happened. And it’s been pretty explainable, albeit flukey, which should at least again present some hope going forward.
Here’s the one line I want to leave as the biggest takeaway over the most recent five-game stretch. Practically speaking, this nearly explains about everything you need to know:
2-for-27 (.047) vs. 15-for-47 (.319).
Those numbers above are the Indians’ batting average with runners in scoring position over the last five games compared to their opponents’ over the same stretch.
In order to give those numbers a little more context, I had to do some quick research per ESPN.com for statistics entering Friday’s action around the league. At that point, over a five-game stretch, the average MLB team would have been averaging 10.4-40.0 (.260) in at-bats with RISP. So obviously, things are skewed in all sorts of negative directions for the Indians when looking at the numbers above in bold.
First, the Indians are getting too few at-bats with runners in scoring position. That means they’re not getting the requisite place-setters 1 to even lead to clutch situations in the first place. They’re averaging 5.4 at-bats per game with RISP over this stretch, when the average is established as 8.0.
Obviously then, the Indians have not been converting on these precious few opportunities. Most spectacularly, folks could point to the season RISP marks belonging to Asdrubal Cabrera (1-for 18, .056) and Jason Kipnis (1-for-10, .100).
Then, on the opposing side, the Indians pitchers are giving up too many opportunities off the bat with runners in scoring position. In this five-game stretch, opponents are getting 9.4 compared to that established 8.0 MLB average. While obviously that’s less of a difference from the average than the Indians’ precious few opportunities, it’s still notable and it’s still bad.
Of course, if that wasn’t bad enough, opponents are hitting .319 in such extended opportunities. That was low-lighted by Boston going 13-for-29 (.448) in the final two games of this week’s series.
As I mentioned before, this success with RISP practically can explain just about everything you need to know about the Indians current five-game losing streak. It would certainly explain why they’re being out-scored 11-25 during this stretch. And it certainly epitomizes some of the ongoing areas of concern that fans have seen thus far in the short span of 2013.
On that note, here are two other statistics that I’ve been observing that obviously are related to those clutch struggles above, but also are noteworthy on their own:
The Indians have scored 3 runs or less in 9/12 games and 10/15 overall
For The Diff on April 10, I created a spreadsheet of every single American League start in 2013. Fortunately, I also saved the final scores of every AL outcome as well.
According to this large overall sample of 2,268 games for 2012 AL teams, the expected winning percentage when scoring 3 runs or less is .208 (209-796).
The Indians are 2-8 (.200) in such games this season. That winning percentage is right on par with the expected average. The problem is simply that these such games are occurring way too often so far. Any team can’t be competitive like that.
The Indians have posted quality starts in 2/9 games and 6/15 overall
This was the whole thesis of last week’s edition of The Diff. Simply posting a quality start gives a team an incredible opportunity to win the game. Let’s review the numbers again.
With a quality start: .701. Without a quality start: .313.
In 2013, the Indians are 5-1 (.800) when posting a quality start and 0-10 (.000) when not. The good starts have been decently good and the bad ones have been really, really bad. There’s very seldom a middle ground.
Entering Friday night, the Chicago Cubs were the worst in MLB with a 16-for-104 (.154) mark with runners in scoring position through their first 14 games. That’s just the beginning of the positive news I’d share going forward.
There’s no way the Indians can continue to be this unlucky with runners in scoring position. Obviously, not getting enough such opportunities is the first concern, but from there, I’d expect the team to regress more toward a normal batting average over time. They won’t bat sub-.100 for much longer.
And over time, opponents won’t continue to bat .319. Combined, those two effects would mean that the starters would generally post longer and more effective starts, while the runs would start to show up on the scoreboard offensively. Again, it all comes down to the relatively flukey 2 nature of this one important split.
So Friday’s night’s loss wasn’t the most depressing yet of the season. It was a close-fought game that was never that far out of reach; Brett Myers pitched a relatively effective game (despite his reported flexor tendinitis) and Lonnie Chisenhall at least kept it competitive with his two-run homer. But the struggles in Houston were simply a microcosm of what’s been going on for a strange five-game stretch of bad baseball. And hopefully, the clutch funk should end soon for the fading Indians.
Certainly a related factor to Michael Bourn’s recent absence. He had a fairly respectable .375 OBP in 48 plate appearances before injuring his hand in Sunday’s loss, then going to the disabled list.
Calling batting average with RISP entirely flukey is a bit off. It’s like the sabermetric debate with RBI. They’re meaningful; just not as meaningful as people though circa 1998. Over a long stretch, no MLB team will actually bat sub-.100 because they can’t possibly be that bad. Slight deviations from the norm are normal, but that’d be too extreme.
BEST OF MAXIM
For the first time in over two years, left-hander Scott Kazmir is scheduled to appear in an MLB game tonight. The now-29-year-old former pitching phenom will be the starting pitcher for the Cleveland Indians at Houston at 7:05 p.m., as the Tribe looks to break a five-game losing streak.
Officially, Kazmir has returned to the Cleveland Indians’ 25-man roster today, taking the spot...
The Indians have placed right-hander Brett Myers on the 15-day disabled list with a right arm injury and have called up right-hander Fernando Nievefrom Triple-A Columbus.
Myers has been dealing with tendonitis in his right flexor tendon since spring training. His performance has suffered as a result, and his velocity was down about 5 MPH in his start on Friday. He was sent to...
Danny Salazar (SP, Akron Aeros): 5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K.
Ah, now that’s more like it. Before Saturday, there was a mix of good and bad from Salazar in his previous three starts with the Aeros. He started the season out with a nice showing where he allowed one run over five innings, but the right-hander then allowed a total of eight earned runs in 7 2/3 innings since. However, Salazar...
The Columbus Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak by blanking the Toledo Mud Hens 1-0 Saturday.
Behind the spectacular performance by right-hander Carlos Carrasco, the Clippers were able to squeeze out the victory despite the recent struggles by the offense.
Manger Chris Tremie said that the weather has had an affect on his hitters’ performances.
"You know, it’s...
Around the Farm takes a quick look at some of yesterday’s performances by Indians prospects throughout the system. The positions listed below are where the player was playing in yesterday’s game.
Note: Both Carolina and Lake County were postponed due to inclement weather.
Trevor Bauer (SP, Columbus): 7 IP, 2 R, 2 ER, 7 SO.
Bauer’s start against Toledo was one of the most positive...
Cleveland Indians right-hander Brett Myers is expected to miss about a month due to tendinitis and a mild ligament sprain in his right elbow.
Myers pitched five innings of three-run ball against Houston on Friday, then said he had been dealing with a problem with the flexor tendon in his arm since spring training. He is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in three starts and one relief appearances...
Player of the Game: Nick Swisher (4-for-7 with 3 2Bs, 3 runs, and 2 RBI)
Finally! After a dismal stretch of baseball that left the Tribe in search of any offense, the bats rang loud in the heart of Texas as Cleveland toppled Houston, 19-6 ending their five game losing streak.
Astros starter Philip Humber would record just one out in the first inning before yielding...
Twenty-five years ago, when they were briefly teammates on a typically mediocre 1980s Cleveland Indians squad, John Farrell seemed to bring out the best in Terry Francona. I’m not just basing that on some random, hazy childhood memories, either. I actually went to the trouble of looking it up—which should say something about how entertaining last night’s ballgame was. ...
From the Bait Shop:
It’s never good to go from first place-to-last place in a week, even if it’s only the second full week of the Carolina League season. The only good news for the Mudcats is that it is only the second week of the season, and the Muddies are only three games out of first place.
Things will definitely need to improve quickly after they went 1-6 this week.
One fan sitting in right field of Sunday’s Indians-Astros game showed why you don’t try to catch a home-run ball with a popcorn bucket. If not for the fan dumping popcorn into his mouth, Rick Ankiel would have robbed Stubbs of a home-run.
Video: Popcorn here, popcorn everywhere!
Houston left fielder J.D. Martinez has left Friday night's game against the Indians after spraining his right knee while batting in the fourth inning.
Martinez was injured on a check swing. His knee buckled and he fell to the ground in pain.
He remained on the ground for a couple of minutes while Astros trainers attended to him. He was then helped to his feet and hobbled with...
MLB News: The Houston Astros activated pitcher Travis Blackley off of the 15-day disabled list Saturday. While no role has been set in stone, it appears that he will be pitching middle-long relief with an outside shot at starting down the line.
Fantasy Ramifications: Blackley offers fantasy baseball enthusiasts no value. He should remain a free agent in all leagues.
The post Houston...
“Wild Thing” [bum bum bah bah bah] You make my heart sing [bum bum bah bah bah]…” (
Cleveland Indians “farmhand” (really?) Daisuke Matsuzaka seems to be emulating the Indians fan favorite Rick Vaughn (a.k.a. Charlie Sheen) in everyone’s favorite late 1980′s baseball movie “Major League”. After getting “red tagged” out of Spring Training, Matsuzaka figured...
Cleveland Indians (7-10) at Chicago White Sox (7-11)
Series 7, Games 18, 19 and 20
U.S. Cellular Field, Chicago: 0.827*, Extreme pitchers park.
The Indians will play the White Sox for the second series this season. The first series was very entertaining and I expect this one to be the same.
Slugger Adam Dunn has certainly...