Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 7/9/14

Jun 2, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Casey McGehee (9) hits an two run RBI single during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
In the pantheon of strange MLB seasons, Casey McGehee’s name deserves some prime real estate. Somehow he’s driven in 53 runs this year — 13.7% of the Marlins’ total runs on the season — with just one, lone home run. Giancarlo Stanton has 62 RBI, just nine more than McGehee, but he’s hit 20 extra blasts. Sometimes baseball doesn’t make sense. numberFire featured a post on Wednesday providing some explanation for McGehee’s odd season: McGehee leads all of baseball with a .398 batting with RISP. The next closest hitter to him is Cleveland’s Lonnie Chisenhall, at .370. That’s a ridiculous number, far better than the MLB average with RISP of .249. And as most followers of baseball know, hitting with runners in scoring position is a difficult feat to repeat on a year-in, year-out basis. These are McGehee’s career numbers in that department. This is a fairly typical fluctuation in batting with RISP, something the struggling St. Louis Cardinals offense has discovered this year. Click here to read the rest of the article. They go on to explain that McGehee is due for regression. This is absolutely true, but it’s actually not something we’ve begun to see even as the Marlins offense continues to sputter. These are McGehee’s RBI totals by month: April: 16 May: 18 June: 14 July: 5 (8 days) In an attempt to project McGehee’s rest-of-season RBI totals, let’s look at what his RBI total should look like at the midway point had he not benefited from both Miami’s ridiculous start and his own great batting average with RISP. Over the last 30 days the Marlins have scored 103 runs, which ranks 23rd in the league. Already that seems like a fair estimate. Miami isn’t the worst offense in baseball, but they’re definitely not in the top half either. That works out to 3.81 runs per game. If you project that rate over the full season, you get an adjusted season total of 343 runs. As of July 9, Miami has actually scored 387 runs, so our estimated 343 is 88.6% of their actual total. McGehee is batting .398 with RISP, averaging 1.24 RBI per hit for a total of 46 RBI in these situations. Let’s say he’s more reasonably a .285 hitter (with a .302 average this season thanks to a .373 BABIP, that seems like a good estimate). If McGehee had batted .285 this season with RISP instead of .398, his RBI total with RISP would be 33, not 46. That 13-RBI adjustment would bring his season total down from 53 to 40. That’s 40 RBI per 90 team games. With 72 team games remaining, our math projects McGehee for 32 RBI the rest of the way, bringing his season total to 85. That’s still a great season on the whole, but his production down the stretch certainly will be underwhelming. McGehee must have more power than he’s displayed thus far (just 1 HR on the season), so his only real chance at coming close to his current RBI rate is to go on a mini power binge in the second half, but even then he’d need 7-9 HR the rest of the way just to keep pace with his current RBI rate. I doubt many people are buying McGehee at this point, but with 53 RBI on the year at a shallow third base position, maybe you can cash in before the correction.
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Brad Stevens: Celtics had 'real conversations' after loss to Hawks

Les Miles unsure about his future at LSU

Saban will not rule out Kenyan Drake for Iron Bowl

Andre Drummond responds to Khris Middleton saying he doesn’t like contact

Lacking Jazz: Why Utah’s offense has struggled this season

Magic to bench Victor Oladipo, start Channing Frye


10 unheralded NFL players set to make a major impact in Week 12

Top 10 matchups for Week 12 of the NFL season

Tyrann Mathieu says Blaine Gabbert has a ‘better grip on what’s going on’

NCAA frees Kansas blue chipper Cheick Diallo

Rockets hold in-season training camp in attempt to rebound from disastrous start

Kansas City Chiefs: No Jamaal Charles, no problem

Blaine Gabbert was only person at his press conference

Report: Alabama DC Kirby Smart a front-runner for South Carolina job

Kristaps Porzingis really wants to meet Turtle from ‘Entourage’

Top storyline for each Week 12 NFL game

WATCH: Ref injures Yakupov's leg by pulling him down

Ryan Fitzpatrick shaves beard to ‘switch up the mojo’

Bedlam is bigger than ever, but which team will be better than ever?

5 outrageous predictions for Week 12 of the NFL season

How the Detroit Lions became the face of football on Thanksgiving Day

The 10 most disappointed fan bases of the 2015 college football season

Jimmy Butler wants Mason Plumlee to pay his $2,500 fine

Jose Bautista's bat flip inspires a holiday sweater

The Kristaps Porzingis comparison project

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Top storyline for each Week 12 NFL game

Top 10 matchups for Week 12 of the NFL season

The 10 most disappointed fan bases of the 2015 CFB season

Gronk: Takes mental toughness not to overeat on Thanksgiving

Blue Jays fans create website in effort to keep David Price

The five most overrated teams in the Week 13 coaches' poll

10 storylines for Week 13 of the college football season

Ranking the 10 best games of 2015 college football rivalry week

Examining the Mavericks' hot start

Johnny Bench(ed): Manziel demoted to third string

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker