Max Scherzer or Trey Yesavage, who should make Blue Jays’ ALDS rotation?

Of those 25 runs allowed, 17 of them came off Scherzer in the first inning, where opponents hit well over .500 against him and slugged 1.000. What’s worse is that two of his final four starts came versus New York and Boston, with both clubs jumping out to three-run leads in the opening frame.

Even with as much playoff experience as Scherzer owns, his recent track record in October has been fairly unreliable, as he hasn’t posted a quality start since 2021 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In fact, the veteran right-hander has been tagged for 14 runs — including six home runs — over his last four post-season appearances.

It should be noted that Scherzer pitched three scoreless innings for the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of the 2023 World Series, allowing him to face the Arizona Diamondbacks once through the order before departing. That strategy, however, doesn’t seem as feasible this time around, amidst his recent first-inning woes.

Could the Blue Jays solve this problem by using an opener? Maybe. But you probably don’t want Scherzer warming up in the bullpen during the first inning, considering his age — increasing the risk for injury — and the potential of disrupting the creature of habit’s routine.

Yesavage, on the other hand, presents many exciting possibilities.

Normally, throwing the organization’s top prospect — who’s already enjoyed an astonishing first professional season, dominating at all four stops through the minors and saving enough in the tank for a trio of major league starts — into the fire of the post-season would be a lot to ask.

Yesavage isn’t an ordinary rookie, though. He’s proven that countless times this season. Even at 22, he’s already well beyond his years and has shown that he isn’t intimidated by pitching under the bright lights. Take, for example, last Saturday’s pivotal outing. In what was a must-win game to keep pace with the Yankees, he perfectly fit the part with five shutout innings versus the Rays, forcing the club’s hand with what comes next.

One way or another, Yesavage will be part of Toronto’s ALDS roster. That’s all but confirmed at this point. The only thing left to be decided is whether it’ll be as a starter or a reliever. If it’s the latter, the 6-foot-4 righty would likely be utilized in a hybrid role, offering multiple innings out of the ‘pen in any situation.

There is, however, a compelling case to be made about keeping him in the starting rotation.

The stuff will play for Yesavage in the post-season. With the rising star’s unique over-the-top delivery, his three-pitch arsenal — featuring a four-seamer, splitter and slider — will create a difficult matchup for either the Yankees or Red Sox. Plus, neither of those clubs has faced him yet, tipping the unfamiliarity scale in his favour.

Because of Yesavage’s release point — 7.09 feet above the ground, second-highest in the majors behind Justin Verlander (7.10 feet) — he’s able to overpower opposing hitters when his command is precise, and that’s the key word here. He needs to attack the strike zone to be successful, particularly early in counts, effectively setting up his splitter that perfectly tunnels off his fastball.

It’s all about getting to the splitter for Yesavage, which opponents are 2-for-18 (.111) against through three starts, inducing a swing and miss over half the time. That’s his bread and butter, and it’s one of the most lethal weapons around for neutralizing left-handed batters.

Considering both the Red Sox (Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Nathaniel Lowe, Wilyer Abreu) and Yankees (Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon) feature a full cascade of lefty hitters, Yesavage’s splitter would present a favourable matchup in the ALDS versus either opponent, both of whom have endured ups and downs in 2025 against right-handed pitchers with that offering — New York more than Boston.

Another advantage to having Yesavage start is that the Blue Jays could operate more creatively than they could with Scherzer. They could treat this like a traditional start, pushing Yesavage as deep as possible. Or they could pull him after completing one turn through the batting order, piecing the rest of the innings together via bullpen matchups.

Imagine this: Toronto starts Yesavage, then brings in Lauer when the top of the Yankees or Red Sox order comes around a second time, preventing either club’s window of left-handed batters from having multiple at-bats against his fastball-splitter combo.

Or, in the best-case scenario, they let Yesavage cook.

This is a good problem to have, and it does not require solving until Saturday. That’s the beauty of securing a first-round bye. The Blue Jays still have time to weigh their options, which also includes choosing neither Scherzer nor Yesavage in favour of a bullpen game after last Thursday’s worked to perfection against the Red Sox, as the combination of Louis Varland, Lauer, and Yariel Rodríguez
carried a perfect game into the seventh inning.

Having off-days after Games 2 and 4 affords the Blue Jays flexibility to do just that. Still, in any other scenario, it’s tough to ignore the evidence that supports Yesavage. Almost everywhere you look, every metric you canvass, indicates he should be their guy.

Sure, Toronto could have Scherzer start and use Yesavage as a piggyback option. But that likely doesn’t maximize their chances of winning. And if Scherzer isn’t a starter, he probably isn’t on the roster at all, considering his age and frequency of allowing home runs make him ill-equipped for a bullpen role.

Whatever final decision the Blue Jays’ brass makes, it’ll likely hinge on which complement of pitchers they can trust most to record 27 outs.