Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/31/12

If Jordan Zimmermann can put together a full, 200-inning season, he’ll be a fantasy force to be reckoned with. His walk rate went from very good to pretty much elite last season, and there’s definitely room for growth with his strikeout rate. In fact, if Zimmermann made the standard 33 starts last season instead of just 26, his PSR would have risen from 0.79 to 2.47, which would have ranked him 141st overall. The Nationals appear to be a team on the rise, so wins shouldn’t be as scarce in Washington as they have been in recent seasons. With a little more durability and another strikeout per nine innings, Zimmermann will thrust himself inside the top 100.

Best case scenario: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
Similar players: Shaun Marcum (MIL), Doug Fister (DET), Chris Carpenter (STL)
Worst case scenario: Tim Stauffer (SD)

Strengths

ERA, WHIP, control. A 3.18 ERA and 3.16 FIP tell us Zimmermann is a damn good pitcher, and if he’s able to come close to his 1.73 BB/9 last season then he’ll be among the league’s best in terms of WHIP as well. If he can become above average in either wins or strikeouts, he’ll be a legit fantasy number two starter.

Weaknesses

Durability. I won’t label Zimmermann’s win or strikeout potential as weaknesses because both of those stand to improve this season, we just don’t know how much yet. His durability is a concern, though. He’s already had Tommy John surgery in his career (2009) and last season they looked to cap his innings in is first full season back. How many innings will he throw this year?

ADP Report (120.6)

Zimmermann is currently getting drafted after starters like Josh Johnson (106), Brandon Beachy (118), Johnny Cueto (121), Matt Garza (126), Gio Gonzalez (132) and Matt Moore (168), who we all have ranked behind Zimmermann (that’s our rank in parentheses by the way). That makes J-Zimm a good value here.

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