Found March 21, 2013 on Monkey with a Halo:
Last year I did this little exercise to demonstrate how much bang the Angels got for their buck payroll-wise. It was a look back at how on a WAR basis, the Angels' various investments paid off. Folks seemed to like it, so I thought I'd do it again. As with last year, the big caveat is that this is a valuation model of about $4.5 million per WAR. That amount is essentially what the player would be paid if he were to hit the open market. Obviously, a lot of players don't hit the open market which is why youngsters like Trout and Trumbo provide so much monetary value. Even with that in mind, it is still fun to look over, if only to realize just how lucky the Angels are to have Trout under control for the next five years. Here is how the WAR to salary breakdown worked for the 2012 season (italicized figures are estimates): PLAYER 2012 fWAR VALUE 2012 SALARY DIFF Mike Trout 10.0 $45,000,000 $480,000 $44,520,000 Torii Hunter 5.3 $23,600,000 $18,500,000 $5,100,000 Albert Pujols 3.9 $17,700,000 $16,000,000 $1,700,000 Erick Aybar 3.4 $15,400,000 $5,075,000 $10,325,000 Jered Weaver 3.0 $13,500,000 $14,200,000 -$700,000 Howie Kendrick 2.8 $12,700,000 $4,850,000 $7,850,000 Alberto Callaspo 2.7 $12,300,000 $3,150,000 $9,150,000 C.J. Wilson 2.5 $11,200,000 $10,500,000 $700,000 Mark Trumbo 2.4 $10,800,000 $500,000 $10,300,000 Peter Bourjos 1.9 $8,700,000 $500,000 $8,200,000 Kendrys Morales 1.8 $8,200,000 $2,975,000 $5,225,000 Dan Haren 1.8 $7,900,000 $12,750,000 -$4,850,000 Zack Greinke 1.3 $5,700,000 $5,162,000 $538,000 Chris Iannetta 1.3 $5,700,000 $3,633,333 $2,066,667 Jerome Williams 1.1 $4,800,000 $820,000 $3,980,000 Bobby Wilson 0.8 $3,700,000 $487,500 $3,212,500 Maicer Izturis 0.7 $3,100,000 $3,966,667 -$866,667 Vernon Wells 0.6 $2,500,000 $21,000,000 -$18,500,000 Kevin Jepsen 0.6 $2,900,000 $501,000 $2,399,000 Ernesto Frieri 0.6 $2,500,000 $489,100 $2,010,900 Jordan Walden 0.5 $2,200,000 $495,000 $1,705,000 Scott Downs 0.4 $1,700,000 $5,000,000 -$3,300,000 Garrett Richards 0.3 $1,200,000 $480,000 $720,000 Hisanori Takahashi 0.2 $1,100,000 $4,200,000 -$3,100,000 LaTroy Hawkins -0.1 -$500,000 $3,000,000 -$3,500,000 Bobby Abreu -0.2 -$800.000 $9,000,000 -$9,800,000 David Carpenter -0.3 -$1,400,000 $480,000 -$1,880,000 Jason Isringhausen -0.3 -$1,500,000 $650,000 -$2,150,000 Ervin Santana -0.9 -$3,900,000 $11,200,000 -$15,100,000 TOTAL 48.3 $216,000,000 $160,044,600 $55,955,400 With nearly $56 million in surplus value, it is kind of impressive to see the Halos come out so far ahead after an off-season of reckless spending. Of course, almost all that surplus comes from Trout, who was under team control. It goes to show that having young cost-controlled players is vital to a team's sustainability, especially when you look at the bath the Angels took on Wells, Santana and Abreu. Now, let's apply the model to its more practical use. The 2012 example is hindsight, but if we apply the same math to the 2013 using their 2012 WAR values and 2013 salaries, which is really what they were being paid on if they hit the open market. This is my assumed Opening Day roster (again, italicized values are estimates and Madson's WAR is from his 2011 season): PLAYER 2012 fWAR VALUE 2013 SALARY DIFF Mike Trout 10.0 $45,000,000 $510,000 $44,490,000 Josh Hamilton 4.4 $19,600,000 $17,400,000 $2,200,000 Albert Pujols 3.9 $17,700,000 $16,000,000 $1,700,000 Erick Aybar 3.4 $15,400,000 $8,750,000 $6,650,000 Jered Weaver 3.0 $13,500,000 $16,200,000 -$2,700,000 Howie Kendrick 2.8 $12,700,000 $9,100,000 $3,600,000 Alberto Callaspo 2.7 $12,300,000 $4,100,000 $7,800,000 C.J. Wilson 2.5 $11,200,000 $11,500,000 -$300,000 Mark Trumbo 2.4 $10,800,000 $540,000 $10,260,000 Peter Bourjos 1.9 $8,700,000 $500,000 $8,200,000 Jason Vargas 0.8 $3,400,000 $8,500,000 -$5,100,000 Joe Blanton 2.4 $10,800,000 $6,500,000 $4,300,000 Tommy Hanson 1.0 $4,500,000 $3,725,000 $775,000 Chris Iannetta 1.3 $5,700,000 $5,050,000 $650,000 Andrew Romine 0.2 $900,000 $500,000 $400,000 Hank Conger -0.1 -$450,000 $500,000 -$950,000 Kole Calhoun 0.0 $0 $500,000 -$500,000 Jerome Williams 1.1 $4,800,000 $2,000,000 $2,800,000 Sean Burnett 1.1 $4,800,000 $3,625,000 $1,175,000 Ryan Madson 1.7 $7,600,000 $3,500,000 $4,100,000 Vernon Wells 0.6 $2,500,000 $21,000,000 -$18,500,000 Kevin Jepsen 0.6 $2,900,000 $1,181,250 $1,718,750 Ernesto Frieri 0.6 $2,500,000 $500,000 $2,000,000 Scott Downs 0.4 $1,700,000 $5,000,000 -$3,300,000 Garrett Richards 0.3 $1,200,000 $500,000 $700,000 TOTAL 49.0 $219,750,000 $147,581,250 $72,168,750 One of the first thing you might notice is that despite all their roster changes, the Angels picked up all of 0.7 WAR in the process. You'll then also see a lot more surplus value, but that is kind of misleading because the Angels have a few million in dead money on the books with Haren's $3.5 million buyout and the milion bucks they sent to the Royals in the Santana trade, still, it is a nice jump up from 2012. My favorite part might be that, for 2013 at least, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols are actually UNDERPAID. Definitely did not see that coming. Strangely enough, the biggest acquisition misstep according to value appears to be the trade for Jason Vargas who is over $5 million in the hole. That discrepancy though points out that sometimes teams pay less for past performance and more for expected future performance. With that in mind, here is the same 2013 breakdown, only this time using the WAR value for 2013 as projected by ZiPS: PLAYER 2013 ZiPS fWAR VALUE 2013 SALARY DIFF Mike Trout 7.4 $33,300,000 $510,000 $32,790,000 Josh Hamilton 3.2 $14,400,000 $17,400,000 -$3,000,000 Albert Pujols 4.1 $18,450,000 $16,000,000 $2,450,000 Erick Aybar 2.7 $12,150,000 $8,750,000 $3,400,000 Jered Weaver 4.4 $19,800,000 $16,200,000 $3,600,000 Howie Kendrick 2.4 $10,800,000 $9,100,000 $1,700,000 Alberto Callaspo 2.2 $9,900,000 $4,100,000 $5,400,000 C.J. Wilson 3.5 $15,750,000 $11,500,000 $4,250,000 Mark Trumbo 1.8 $8,100,000 $540,000 $7,560,000 Peter Bourjos 2.6 $11,700,000 $500,000 $11,200,000 Jason Vargas 1.7 $7,650,000 $8,500,000 -$850,000 Joe Blanton 1.6 $7,200,000 $6,500,000 $700,000 Tommy Hanson 2.1 $9,450,000 $3,725,000 $5,725,000 Chris Iannetta 1.7 $7,650,000 $5,050,000 $2,600,000 Andrew Romine -0.1 -$450,000 $500,000 -$950,000 Hank Conger 0.8 $3,600,000 $500,000 $3,100,000 Kole Calhoun 0.3 $1,350,000 $500,000 $850,000 Jerome Williams 0.8 $3,600,000 $2,000,000 $1,600,000 Sean Burnett 0.5 $2,250,000 $3,625,000 -$1,375,000 Ryan Madson 0.6 $2,700,000 $3,500,000 -$800,000 Vernon Wells 1.0 $4,500,000 $21,000,000 -$16,500,000 Kevin Jepsen 0.4 $1,800,000 $1,181,250 $618,750 Ernesto Frieri 0.5 $2,250,000 $500,000 $1,750,000 Scott Downs 0.3 $1,350,000 $5,000,000 -$3,650,000 Garrett Richards 0.0 $0 $500,000 -$500,000 TOTAL 46.5 $209,250,000 $147,581,250 $61,668,750 Like most projection systems, ZiPS is conservative, knocking the Angels down a full 2.5 wins. The value takes a commensurate dive. As luck would have it though, the surplus value, once you remove the dead money, is almost the exact same as the surplus for the 2012 roster and payroll. The more things change the more they stay the same, I guess. If ZiPS proves true, the Angels don't have huge wastes of money on the roster, other than Wells, but that's a given. The projection for Hamilton gets a lot worse though, which isn't so fun when you consider how backloaded the contract is. Madson also looks like a potential waste, especially if any of his $3.5 million in incentives kicks in. Ultimately, this is all just for fun as the valuation model is supposed to create surplus for cost-controlled players. If anything, I just find it amusing that if the Angels instituted a scale where they paid players by WAR, they'd essentially have the Dodgers' payroll. Silly Dodgers. Silly, stupid Dodgers. [follow]
THE BACKYARD
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
RELATED ARTICLES

Losing Nolan Ryan: The Angels Biggest Mistake

By Rob Goldman - AngelsWin.com Staff Writer In eight seasons with the Angels Nolan Ryan had helped lead the team from obscurity to serious contention. And he had conducted himself with the utmost class, professionalism and dignity. The fans, press and ownership loved him unconditionally, so even though Ryan was without a contract heading into the 1979 off-season, there was little...

Player Profile #19: Josh Hamilton | OF | LAA

For the entirety of Josh Hamilton‘s major league career, he’s been regarded as an elite fantasy option. For a player with only a little stolen base potential, I find it interesting that he’s earned this reputation despite some non-stellar power totals. That changed last year as Hamilton hit 43 homers, 11 more than his previous [...]

And That’s the Way It Was: AngelsWin.com’s 2013 Spring Training Fanfest Roundtable with the Media

TEMPE, AZ, March 16, 2013 — AngelsWin.com talks with Joe McDonnell (FOXSportsWest.com and; FoxSports.com), Jeff Fletcher (Orange County Register), Alden Gonzalez (MLB.com), and Victor Rojas (Fox Sports) about the highs and lows of their jobs, their favorite sports moments, and their best and toughest interviews. Moderated by David Saltzer, the Senior Writer for AngelsWin.com...

AngelsWin.com Podcast - #AWFanfest13 Recap

Join host Geoff Stoddart as he welcomes in AngelsWin.com's Founder, Chuck Richter, and Seinor Advisor, Bruce Nye, to discuss the site's 2013 Spring Training Fanfest. The event welcomed Angels legend, Tim Salmon, General Manager, Jerry Dipoto and a round table media discussion from Joe McDonnell (FOXSportsWest.com; FoxSports.com), Jeff Fletcher (Orange County Register...

2013 Player Projection: Tommy Hanson

The Angels took a big gamble trading for Tommy Hanson in the off-season. Will he bounce back and push the Angels rotation to the next level or will he turn out to be the second coming of Scott Kazmir? 2012 Stats: 174.2 IP, 13-10, 4.48 ERA. 4.57 FIP, 183 H, 71 BB, 27 HR, 161 SO, 1.01 GB/FB, 1.0 fWAR 2013 ZiPS Projections: 169.2 IP, 11-10, 3.92 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 166 H, 57 BB,...

Catching Mike Trout

Think fast! Tell me something Mike Trout isn’t very good at. If you said “winning Most Valuable Player awards”, you’re not wrong. If you said “ice hockey” you’re also not wrong, probably. But in terms of on-field baseball skills, Trout is across-the-board outstanding. There are, of course, some things he’s better at than others, and one notes that he just had twice...

The Trumbo Drop

Ah, the story of Mark Trumbo and the wild ride that was his 2012 season.  For those who did manage to grab Trumbo, their apparent genius was rewarded handsomely… at first. Trumbo started heating up in May and carried that through July, looking like the fantasy steal of 2012. From May through July, Trumbo socked 24, count ‘em, 24 home runs! Trumbo added 61 RBIs and also...

Angels players have clubhouse pool going for whether Josh Hamilton will be booed or cheered in Texas

There is very little doubt that Josh Hamilton is going to be booed when the Los Angeles Angels travel to Arlington this season to face the Texas Rangers. His career in Texas ended on fairly sour terms, and Rangers fans probably became even more irritated with him when Hamilton said Dallas is not a true baseball town. Hamilton will get the reception out of the way early, as the Rangers...

Angels 6, Indians 5

Tommy Hanson insisted he was OK and wanted to stay on the mound. The Los Angeles Angels took a different approach with their new starter. Hanson was pulled because of tightness in his right triceps as he warmed up for the fourth inning in Wednesday's 6-5 win over the Cleveland Indians. ''It's fine,'' Hanson said during the game. ''I think they just...

Rangers top Hamilton, Angels in first meeting

SURPRISE, Ariz. (AP) -- Josh Hamilton homered in his first game against his former team, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick and Hank Conger also homered off Derek Lowe in the Los Angeles' 10-9 loss to the Texas Rangers on Thursday night. Leonys Martin hit a bases-loaded double with one out in the bottom of the ninth to lift Texas. Conger added a two-run triple in the sixth and Erick...

Halo Headlines: 'dead arm' no longer troubling Weaver, does Trout or Harper have a higher ceiling?

The March 22nd, 2013 edition of daily news for the Los Angeles Angels including 'dead arm' no longer troubling Weaver, wondering whether Trout or Harper have a higher ceiling and much more... The Story: Jered Weaver threw nearly 90 pitches with an 89 MPH fastball in an intrasquad game yesterday. The Monkey Says: His annual dead arm phase is now behind him and Weaver...

Rangers 10, Angels 9

Josh Hamilton knows there will be some boos when he returns to Arlington the first week of the season. If he performs the way he did during his first game against Texas on Thursday night, they will be well earned. Hamilton hit one of four home runs for Los Angeles in the top of the fourth inning off Derek Lowe, but the Angels lost 10-9 to the Rangers. ''The guys already...

MLB umpire Tim McClelland calls pitches from behind mound at Angels/Brewers spring training game (Video)

We've posted some pretty interesting moments from 2013 MLB spring training so far but this moment from last Tuesday's Los Angeles Angels/Milwaukee Brewers game might take the cake. In the first inning, home plate umpire Seth Buckminster was injured after a pitch thrown by Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Willie Peralta deflected off Angels slugger Albert Pujols and then hit...

MLB Season Preview- AL West

Stop me when this sentence sounds familiar, “The Angels made the big splash of the offseason.” It was like déjà vu, only this time they stole Josh Hamilton from division foe Texas Rangers. Did the Rangers do enough to compete after losing Hamilton? Nah. Did last year’s division winning Oakland Athletics do enough to repeat? Probably not, but let’s not under estimate Billy...
Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.