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The Orioles need to unwind past deals if they are going to rebuild
Kevin Gausman of the Baltimore Orioles delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the game on July 7, 2017 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Orioles 9-6. Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

The Orioles need to unwind past deals if they are going to rebuild

There is only one question to ask when discussing the Baltimore Orioles in 2017: what the hell happened here?

Just a few months ago, the O’s looked as if their breakout of 2016 had just been the start of something much bigger. Armed with one of the game’s most potent lineups, built around a premiere star in Manny Machado, the defending American League home run champ in Mark Trumbo and a hero of the World Baseball Classic, Adam Jones, the Orioles were taking the rest of the American League to task. Throughout most of April and May, they were the class of the AL East and a team whose output rivaled that of the Houston Astros.

But while the Astros continue to soar to stratospheric heights, the O’s are mired in a much different predicament, they have taken one of the most unforeseen free-falls in recent memory. Now as the decide-or-divide line in the sand that is the July 30 trade deadline draws nearer, the team is preparing itself to cash out on the year and turn towards an increasingly bleak future.

The plummet the club has taken over the past few months is one that upon further inspection is not an unexpected one, as in many ways it was past due to arrive. This is because the Orioles an unevenly designed ballclub; one that was upheld more on dependability of few and an overly optimistic viewpoint of others. And it all begins on equal footing of errors of badly played time in the free agent market, as well as a tragic of errors in assessment of the potential of in-house options.


Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado reacts after a home run in the first inning by the Chicago Cubs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 14, 2017. Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

The summer for the O’s boiled over when the team simply could no longer hide that their starting pitching is plainly not good. In years past, the presence of an elite bullpen troops, an above average defense and power-laden lineup has been able to carry the them over its most obvious deficiency. But as Machado has struggled through his worst season to date, and a cocktail of injuries and regressions have pulled back the curtain that has surround a rotation that has long survived while being comprised of other team’s castoffs, failed free agents and underwhelming, formerly prized prospects.

A look around the arms that have taken to the mound this year shows a unit that looks more the part of a team that planned on being in transition than once again reaching Wild Card status. The Orioles rotation ERA finds itself comfortably lodged as the worst in all of baseball, allowing over six runs per game. This comes while allowing opponents to hit nearly .300 against them on the year, while working the third fewest innings in the game.

At the height of the Oriole slide, the rotation narrowly missed setting a dubious piece of history, when they allowed five or more earned runs for 19 straight games, one short of the MLB’s longest-dry spell. It is a drive down a dead end road that should have been foreseen for far longer than was acknowledged.


Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dylan Bundy could be on the move as the trade deadline nears.  Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

While the Oriole staff has never been brilliant, it has always been serviceable enough to get the job done. The issues this year start squarely with an over-investment what both Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were ready to provide now. While Bundy has been solid, his 4.33 ERA and 8-8 record is nothing to write home about, but compared to what Gausman has been, he looks like a Cy Young candidate. After a second-half a year ago that made him appear to be ready to make the leap towards becoming the type of young ace the organization long had him tagged to become, the peak for him so far in 2017 was getting the ball on Opening Day. 

And the veteran portion of the rotation has not been able to pick up the pieces either. Chris Tillman, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez have combined for a grotesque 9-18 record, coupled with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.79 ERA. Along with Gausman, Miley and Jimenez inhabit three of the top five spots in the American League in walks allowed. Miley and Gausman also carry the two worst WHIP marks in the AL, at 1.80 and 1.79, respectively. And they will hold it until the event that Tillman hits the minimum innings mark to take over this decidedly dubious honor, with his 2.01 mark.

It is far from unfair to say that Gausman, Tillman and Jimenez have been among the worst starters in all of baseball on the year, but the fact that this is all that the team has to offer is comedy of errors in judgment by general manager Dan Duquette. While it is understandable that attempting to avoid paying the premium prices that top flight  – even mid-grade – starting pitching can cost today, with a team as offensively capable as the Orioles, it is a sacrifice that could be made to pay off substantial dividends.

But instead, for the second consecutive offseason, the team ignored upgrading its lineup and instead focused on giving out substantial deals to the limited bats of Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, who were rewarded nearly $200 million on the heels of each leading the AL in home runs the year before reaching free agency. And despite that fact that neither were exactly coveted by any other club, the Orioles decided to reinforce an already offensively capable team without either of the two similar sluggers, they paid them princely sums instead of reallocating funds back into upgrading their rotation.

Because of these issues, the Orioles are now forced to consider moving on from all their greatest assets  – relievers Zack Britton, Brad Brach, Darren O’Day and even Machado himself. It is a classic example of a team whose shortsighted viewpoints brought an equally rapid fall to a once promising roster.


Orioles center fielder Adam Jones should be part of a rebuilding effort in Baltimore.  Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

These issues aside, there is still hope for the Orioles. While dealing from their stockpile of late-game arms to balance things out and reboot the rotation would be prudent, and could go a long way towards pulling up the club’s league-worst -94 run differential on the year. In some way or fashion, three-fifths of the Baltimore rotation needs to look completely different by spring training next year. And although Machado’s future with the club is uncertain, as the uber-talented third baseman has given no indication of having interest in avoiding his impending date with free agency after next season, there is still time to cash in on having one of the game’s great talents on board. Second baseman Jonathan Schoop's continued development has seen him become an All-Star this summer, while rookie OF/DH Trey Mancini has put on an impressive debut campaign in his own right. And with Jones, Davis and Trumbo still having enough good baseball ahead of them over the next two years to make a difference, the Orioles window may be diminishing some, but it can still be cashed-in upon.

But if that last ditch effort is ahead, being sellers in the meantime (along with being less prone to overpaying for shiny objects), could mean becoming winners again in short order. Because the future does hold some unavoidable obstacles, including the potential of a Machado-less lineup and some substantial deals that don’t return close to the value that they put out. But with a bit of strategically smart urgency, 2017 can be bump in the road, as opposed to a premature drive off the proverbial cliff for Buck Showalter’s club. 

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