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Donovan Mitchell is the NBA's most confident rookie
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Donovan Mitchell is the NBA's most confident rookie

Donovan Mitchell’s confidence should be bottled and sold next to energy drinks in convenience stores. The Utah Jazz’s rookie is playing like a multi-year veteran, and Quin Snyder has no problem letting the kid learn on the job.

Over his last 10 games, Mitchell is averaging 23 points while shooting 50/40/87 from the field with a .610 TS% and a usage rate over 30. In any league on any planet with any amount of experience, these are, for all intents and purposes, the numbers of a franchise player. Mitchell has taken full advantage of the opportunities given to him because of the wealth of injuries dealt to the Jazz this season, and this recent rise has added a new name to the Rookie of the Year race.

Mitchell’s quest to deliver his name into every NBA-watching household may not be sustainable. His near 18 points per game are coming off 15.5 shots per contest, and he’s shot below 35 percent from three-point range in 15 of his 31 games in the league so far. Mitchell, as rookies are wont to be, is inconsistent. When finishing at the rim, he has an over-reliance on his right hand that feels like a weakness reserved for most lefty guards. He doesn’t pass or handle as well as an NBA-level lead guard — but he is rapidly improving in both areas — and doesn’t have the natural size as a prototypical wing. He’s caught between archetypes and is often searching for ways to prevent teams from exploiting those inherent weaknesses.

However, for everything that Mitchell lacks, he makes up for with his confidence. It helps that he plays in a system as fluid as Snyder’s. The constant movement off the ball, both with Mitchell handling and with Mitchell off the ball, has created a situation in which his weaknesses are minimized.

Coming out of Louisville, he was believed to be a three-and-D role player, but Snyder utilizes Mitchell off the ball like he’s a sniper. While the catch-and-shoot opportunities are there for Mitchell when he wants them (and he should want them as he’s shooting north of 40 percent on these opportunities), running him off screens is about creating space for Mitchell to attack in isolation situations.

As a rookie, Mitchell’s scoring arsenal is already incredible. He has a gorgeous shooting stroke and can knock them down with the best when he’s on. He’s able to shoot off the dribble going both ways and has a disgusting hesitation move that keeps defenders off-balance. His first step is explosive, and if he’s able to gather his feet at the rim, he will attempt to end the career of anyone who dares to jump with him. Mitchell understands his body and his athleticism and knows how to put the defense in compromising situations with both. With bigger defenders, the speed shines. With smaller defenders, he becomes a little more shifty. His 6-10 wingspan (he’s listed at 6-3!) helps shoot over smaller guards and allows him to finish at the rim over bigs waiting for him to arrive.

Mitchell isn’t just doing this in garbage time where a lot of young players rack up empty numbers. He’s become one of the best players in the league with the game on the line, and to this point in the season, he's the best rookie in this category. According to SLC Dunk, Mitchell is sixth in the NBA in fourth-quarter scoring and first among rookies. For rookies who have played clutch minutes in at least 10 games, Mitchell ranks first in points, fourth in field goal percentage, third in three-point percentage and fourth in efg%. Not only is Mitchell getting buckets during the most pressure-filled minutes of an NBA game, but he’s efficient in doing so. His confidence when the Jazz need him the most is sky high right now, and not even LeBron James could bring him down to earth.

The biggest question mark for Mitchell is how well he’ll adjust to the added attention that comes with NBA coaches game planning against his specific talents. Ben Simmons has handled these adjustments particularly well, not changing the way he approaches the game; he’s just more patient with when he decides to pick his spots. Lonzo Ball seems to get better as the season progresses. Kyle Kuzma is turning the ball over a bit more, but his game hasn’t wavered much. Jayson Tatum has also been phenomenal in this area, even considering that he’s likely in the best situation for any rookie in the league right now.

Mitchell’s transition from "rookie off the bench" to "offensive focal point" has been fun, but his physical limitations (size, wavering ball skills) could make attacking defenses geared to stop him a little more difficult than his classmates.

A fully healthy Jazz team will help (Mitchell will sit out of Utah’s next game to nurse a big toe injury). Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors in the lineup at the same time will take pressure off Mitchell’s expected production. Ricky Rubio is settling better in the role he should have with the makeup of this Jazz team after jacking up shots early in the year. If nothing else, Utah is in a much better situation with Gordon Hayward leaving than anyone could have expected because of Mitchell’s unexpected brilliance.

With the 76ers regressing to the mean and Utah rising in the Western Conference standings, Mitchell’s case for Rookie of the Year could improve if Utah can find a way to sneak in to that eighth spot out west (currently one game behind New Orleans for the eighth seed). Simmons will undoubtedly finish the year with better numbers than anyone else in this class, but Mitchell’s role in getting Utah into the postseason when the team was projected to hope for lottery balls to bounce in its favor could trump Simmons's insane year.

This isn’t a conversation that anyone believed we would have when the season started. Well, maybe Mitchell, the rookie with all of the confidence. Let’s bottle it.

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