Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

A.J. Dillon's 2024 free agency contract projection

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Josh Queipo | Last updated 2/10/24

The NFL's regular season is over, which for most teams, means it's time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.

NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months.

We've officially come up with our own contract projections for the NFL's top free agents that include context behind each player's 2023 season, the likelihood of a franchise tag, the projection itself, and the first-year cap hit for a team that's “all-in” and is needing to reduce that first-year hit in order to maximize their cap dollars.

So, without further ado, let's check out the projection for Green Bay Packers running back, A.J. Dillon.

A.J. Dillon 2024 Contract Projection

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

When AJ Dillon broke out in 2021, Green Bay appeared to have as menacing of a two-headed rushing attack as the Browns’ duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Dillon and Aaron Jones had excellent years in 2021 and 2022, but the wheels came off the bus for the big bruiser Dillon last season. In limited usage in his rookie year, AJ averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and leveled out his average to 4.3 and 4.2 yards per carry in 2021 and 2022 when he received over 175 carries each season. That average dropped to 3.4 in 2023, and his yards after first contact average dropped from 3.18 in 2021 to 2.69 in 2023.

Dillon is a respectable talent, but the grim reality of the nonexistent market for Tier 2 or 3 running backs basically wipes his immediate earning potential. AJ is young enough to not risk getting suckered into a low-number, two-year deal before turning 26; recognizing his limited market in 2024 and accepting a slight discount to play for the right organization could give Dillion a chance to shine once again and set himself up for a more lucrative offseason in 2025.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3M, $3M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $1.8M

Be sure to check back in and around the site for more projections, as we will add more in the coming days and weeks.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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