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Chicago Bears trending up and trending down most at the bye
Gervon Dexter applies pressure up the middle on Lions QB Jared Goff. David Reginek-Imagn Images

As Ben Johnson and even Matt Eberflus often have pointed out, improvement in the NFL is not always linear.

There are leaps forward and small steps backward for players. Others have larger steps back.

The hope is for overall movement is in a positive direction. With rookies, there tends to be greater upward and downward movement game by game until they can achieve the consistency that veterans seem to possess.

Establishing which players are on real upward trends requires more than a game of positive movement. Sometimes two games isn't enough.

Likewise, anyone can have a poor game or two and it doesn't mean they need to be headed for waivers.

If you put some Bears fans on social media in charge of personnel decisions, Cole Kmet would probably have been cut last week based on one dropped pass and another tough catch he probably should have made. This is a guy with over an 80% catches-to-targets ratio the last two seasons. Consider slack as cut.

There are definite upward trends to be continued and downward trends to be ended among Bears this season. Here they are.

Trending Up

S Kevin Byard

With three interceptions and passer ratings against of 68.7 and 20.8 in the last two games based on Stathead/Pro Football Reference, Byard has definitely added to an overall movement in the right direction.  His passer rating against overall had been going up for two seasons but his current number of 85.4 is right along the path it took in his best NFL seasons with Tennessee.

LB Tremaine Edmunds

Although last week constituted a decline overall from the first three games, his season in general has not reflected the problems their defnse has endured. Edmunds, in his eighth year and still only 27, has this season and one more left on his Bears contract and has made 26 tackles the last two weeks after 14 total in the first two. As a pass defender, his 75.1 rating against is outstanding compared to many linebackers. The 6.6 yards per completion he is allowing is the lowest of his career.

CB Tyrique Stevenson

His two games since the debacle in Detroit have turned his season around and also helped turn the Bears' season. Considering where he was after Week 2, he still needed a hug leap just to make the upward trend list. Two fumble recoveries, a forced fumble and an interception tend to bolster marks on any grading system. According to Stathead, his career passer-rating against is a solid 88.3 and his trend has been downward in passer rating against each of the last two seasons even with the occasional gaffe like the Fail Mary. He is the highest graded defensive player the Bears have, according to PFF.

WR Rome Odunze

His catch percentage has climbed this year by 3.6% but the real upward trend on his ledger is passer rating when targeted. It's at 112.6 after being a low 82.7 last year. His five TD catches in five games even have him talking league records, which probably isn't realistic. It all reflects both his upward trend and Caleb Williams' upward trend.

QB Caleb Williams

It's difficult to find statistics where Williams hasn't improved over last year. Whether it's in analytics, like with his expected points added for passing or in his PFF statistics with being No. 1 against the blitz, Williams is showing the effects of taking the time to develop step by step instead of having steps skipped, like last year. Intangibles, like his leadership, are not measured by yards but by wins over losses and the last two games have revealed much. Next Gen shows he can afford to be more aggressive as a passer and does need to bolster his completion percentage, but those are just a few flaws compared to great improvement to date overall..

DT Gervon Dexter

At least in one particular area, Dexter might be the most improved Bears player over last year. PFF grades him third overall among defensive tackles at rushing the passer. He still has only one sack but has nine total pressures and a tipped pass. If only they could get his type of improvement from other defensive players. On the other hand, he's still a below-average run defender and needs improvement here drastically.

Trending down

G Jonah Jackson

It's too soon to say Ryan Poles wasted a sixth-round pick by trading for him and committing to $14.75 million this year and $17 milion the next two years for him, or to demand that rookie Luke Newman play right guard. And it must be remembered that Ben Johnson is probably even more responsible for Jackson being in Chicago than Poles. However, the first four games have not been a memorable joy ride. Jackson hasn't given up sack but has committed four penalties and allowed eight pressures. PFF grades him 71st out of 102 interior offensive linemen. That's far down from last year when sat out major chunks of the season and was 40th out of 136.

Dayo Odeyingbo

The Bears brought Odeyingbo in for $48 million and said he was stout against the run while being on the verge of a breakthrough as a pass rusher. He's been neither. It doesn't mean he can't be, but the trend has been downward. He is graded 131st out of 165 edge players. Run defense has not only not been the strength the Bears said, it's a weakness. He's 144th out of 165 edge rushers, and his pass rush has been a middling 70th of 165. The numbers suggest they could have done just as well bringing back DeMarcus Walker.

Grady Jarrett

PFF's grades for Jarrett look worse even than last year when he had the built-in explanation that he was coming off a torn ACL. He has three pressures and is 107th out of 179 players overall according to PFF, 124th on pass rush and 78th stopping the run. Jarrett is the 3-technique and he's supposed to be a run disruptor. He has no tackles for loss or sacks.

Montez Sweat

His PFF grades reflect someone playing at an above-average level. He's paid to be higher than an above-average level. Sweat is graded 30th out of 165 edge rushers by PFF at rushing the passer, but it's hard to say he's been trending up when he still has one sack and two for his last eight games. PFF has been kinder to Sweat (12 pressures) than Stathead (5 pressures) and he does have three tackles for loss. Pressure is nice. The Bears need sacks. Sweat isn't producing them.

Braxton Jones

He's trending so far down that he might be down for the count, at least in Chicago. Brad Biggs' earlier Tribune report this week had Jones headed to the bench and Theo Benedet taking over. There's no certainty Benedet will succeed or that Jones wouldn't be back at some point. For now, though, last week's inability to finish the game and struggles against the Raiders dropped Jones to 72nd overall among 109 tackles PFF grade, 100th as a pass blocker and 54th as a run blocker. He's never been worse than 39th overall at the end of a season for his career.

This article first appeared on Chicago Bears on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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