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Did the 49ers beat the Patriots at their own game?
Jimmy Garoppolo is ready for the spotlight. Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Did the 49ers beat the Patriots at their own game?

The 49ers and Patriots on Monday swung the most significant midseason quarterback trade since the Bengals sent Carson Palmer to the Raiders in 2011 in exchange for a first- and second-round pick.

Obviously the Niners hope this deal works out better for them than that one did for Oakland. At the very least they made a move far more shrewd and less based in desperation. In fact, given what the Patriots had hoped to get in exchange for Jimmy Garoppolo months ago, the 49ers played this about as well as they could have. Now they're still loaded in the draft, and they have a young passer with experience that head coach Kyle Shanahan has admired for years.

Let’s look at all the reasons why the trade happened now and how it shapes both teams' approaches.

Competing offers


Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson was reportedly displeased his team didn't land Jimmy Garoppolo. Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports

That the Patriots settled for less than a first-round pick to move Garoppolo is among the most surprising aspects of the deal. That was their reported demand for most of this past offseason. This spring, during the NFL draft, the Patriots turned down an offer from the Cleveland Browns that would have been for a second-round pick, as well as one or more from later rounds. Since both the 49ers and Browns are presently winless, it’s likely their respective second-round picks will fall within a few places of one another.

While that compensation may ultimately be similar, there are indications that Garoppolo himself might have had some input on his destination. NFL reporter Chris Mortensen tweeted following the trade that the Patriots have a great relationship with Garoppolo’s agent, Don Yee, and that the trade to the Browns was never going to happen. Of course, had the Browns been willing to part with a potential top-five pick, perhaps things would have been different.

Timing was an issue


Garoppolo no longer will back up a future Hall of Famer who just keeps going. Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Even with Tom Brady playing well this year at age 40, the Patriots know there is only so much time left for their future Hall of Fame quarterback. The Pats made extensive efforts to sign Garoppolo to a long-term deal in the past few months and were willing to spend time carrying two starting quarterback salaries to make it happen, according to Albert Breer — except Garoppolo was too interested in being a starter now. That may also be a reason why the Pats turned down the Browns’ similar offer. New England likely believed with more time, Garoppolo might come around on the idea of waiting on Brady to retire.

With Garoppolo set to become a free agent after this season, this was the Pats’ last chance to get compensation for him before he walks. Now the 49ers have to worry about getting him signed to a long-term deal. With the starting job there assured, there's little reason to believe that won't happen.

Garoppolo has time to ease in to the offense


Kyle Shanahan is all smiles after landing a quarterback he's coveted for years. Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers’ new quarterback isn’t going to play in this Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, and that certainly makes sense. At 0-8, San Francisco didn’t make this move with the expectation that it would change its fortunes in 2017, though it wouldn’t be altogether surprising if Garoppolo can steal the team a win or two in the second half of the season. It’s likely we’ll see Garoppolo start some games for the Niners before the season is over, even if Shanahan isn't promising his new QB will play this season. Playing him before 2018 rolls around will be beneficial to the team as he’ll have some familiarity with the system in meaningful games before next season, when fans and the media will expect returns from this arrangement.

While fans would probably like to see Garoppolo play well when he does get reps and starts in the San Francisco offense in 2017, the fact that the team has already essentially removed itself from the playoff picture will buy him plenty of leeway. That said, this is the NFL, and any truly awful performances are likely to lead to hot takes from somebody.

What this means for the 2018 QB class


While USC quarterback Sam Darnold may stay in school, his draft stock shouldn't be affected by the Garoppolo trade. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, it should do little to tamp down the hype associated with next year’s rookie quarterbacks, though the move sends a message that Shanahan at least doesn’t think any of them will turn out to be better than Garoppolo. Where it gets interesting, and potentially more helpful to San Francisco, is being in position to reap the benefits of trading down. Barring a crazy eruption of competence, the Niners are likely to be picking in the top three next spring, possibly even No. 1. Now, of course, the 49ers are set at quarterback for at least 2018.

Knowing how these types of trades have gone down in the past when quarterback frenzy grips the nearly everyone, the Niners are likely to collect at least one extra first-rounder. That’s critical for a roster that has been drained of talent in recent years. Even after the trade, San Francisco still has four picks in the first three rounds next spring. Getting a quarterback is central to contending, though the Niners need to build the roster around him first.

The Pats just like second-round picks


Bill Belichick continues to load up on second-round picks. Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

That the Patriots likely will wind up with the 33rd, 34th or 35th pick in exchange for Garoppolo suits them just fine. It’s not that Bill Belichick hates picks at the top of the first round. It’s that he considers picks at the top of the second round to hold the highest value. The way the draft is structured now, having picks at the top of the second round is extra valuable since a day separates when the first and second rounds of the draft take place, giving teams picking at the top of the second ample opportunity to set up trades.

The Brady dilemma


What will the Pats do now if Tom Brady suddenly starts showing his age? David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

In the past two months, the Patriots have dealt Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo. The former was a capable backup then and a decent starter for another team now. The latter was the heir apparent to Brady. While Brady is playing well and committed to taking care of his body through stringent dieting, he and the Patriots are entering uncharted territory. It’s not wholly unreasonable to believe he could give the team three or four more seasons of high-level production, but that’s a lot of risk to take on for the next two years.

Presumably the Patriots will end up drafting a quarterback this spring. That rookie most likely won’t be playing at a level that would make him anything but a liability to a contender for another year or two after that. Brady has only had one really bad injury in his career, yet he is taking more hits this season than he generally does. Betting on Brady has never hurt them before. With each passing season, however, it becomes a dicier issue.

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