Originally posted on Football Nation  |  Last updated 6/10/13
As we hope you will appreciate, the folks here at Football Nation.com have decided to do a series of fantasy football based articles. I have the inevitable task of trying to determine the fantasy value of the second round draft choice of the New England Patriots, Aaron Dob-son.Aaron was a disappoint as far as statistics were concerned in his last season at Marshall University. Though he caught 50 plus balls and had over 500 yards in receptions, he was targeted some 92 times and ironically he had no recorded drops. Almost a conundrum!His fantasy value with the Patriots could go either way, and they depend upon what the rest of the receiving corps looks like personal wise, and how they perform as a unit. I could see him either a bust or as a surprise!As it stands right now he has made some really good catches in the OTA's, but conversely he has also dropped some all by myself catch able balls. His progress is a one day good, one day bad type of start. So when trying to determine is fantasy value, I will evaluate as sufficiently as possible.Here's goes my analysis: As he is a rookie WR on a veteran squad I don't see Aaron Dobson as a big play early in the season. I would maybe take him with a back up spot if my league was a multiple WR league. I could easily see him blossoming towards the end of his first season provided he isn't injured before he peaks.His statistical probabilities range from 20 catches with a chance of up to 45 catches in his first season with the Patriots.  Yardage would be in the 350 yards to 550 yard range if he develops like they expect him to. Where he may shine for the Patriots is in the red zone, where I could easily see him catching several balls for TD's. I could easily see him grab 6 TD passes in his rookie year. So though he may not be a viable receiver in the overall scheme of things he does have red zone value.So when I determine his worth, it is a modest number of catches with a good percentage of them being of the TD variety. I will take him in a league just not my money league. Grading him out as not a bust! 
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