Originally written on The Sports Rocker  |  Last updated 11/18/11

DENVER - AUGUST 29: Quarterback Tim Tebow of the Denver Broncos warms up prior to facing the Pittsburgh Steelers during preseason NFL action at INVESCO Field at Mile High on August 29, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
New contributor to TSR, Andy, asked me how long Tim Tebow would stay in the NFL? He said he would take five years, and even past that. Since this is a debate, I guess that leaves me with less than five. Even if that does leave me with a higher chance of getting turned into a pillar of salt. First I'll discuss why he'll be out of the league, then Andy will say why he'll still be in the league.

So here goes. (Here's Andy's take.)

This is The Original Sports Rocker. And I'm going to tell you why Tim Tebow will be out of the league in five years or less.

The advancement of the game requires it. More specifically, there is a position on offense, called quarterback, that requires the position holder to sometimes advance the ball by throwing it to another person. This is done in order to advance the ball far enough to pick up first downs, and eventually, score. Tim Tebow is not good at the throwing part of the quarterback position.

Most recently, Tebow completed two of eight passes against the Chiefs last Sunday. Let that marinate. Two completed passes. Eight attempts. Eight. And yes, the Broncos are 3-1 in his four starts. Some how, some way. But that doesn't tell the entire story, and never will. So far this season, Tebow is completing 44.8% of his passes. The league average for quarterback rating is 84.1. Tebow is at 81.6. Colts quarterback, Curtis Painter, whom I think we can all agree might be the worst signal caller this season, is completing 51.7%.

Tebow in a familiar pose:
With all his rushing stats to go with it, he'll still be out of the league when his rookie contract expires. This isn't your dad's NFL. This is a gunslinger league, where running backs are expendable when they hit 30 years of age, but quarterbacks can stick around until they're collecting social security checks. See: Favre, Bret; Collins, Kerry; Brunell, Mark. And on and on. Even Carson Palmer was lured out of "retirement" by the Raiders after missing half the season. Even Matt Leinart will be in the captains seat the rest of the season for the Texans since Schaub is out. You know what all of those have in common? They throw the ball. They're drop back passers. Except for Leinart. I think he just falls down in a heap so he doesn't hurt his face. Tebow is not a drop back passer. He's a check your first option, then run, quarterback. He hasn't completed 50% of his passes in a game this season. In fact, he has more rushes than completed passes, 48 to 47. It will only be a matter of time until defenses start loading the line, daring him to throw. It only takes a good defense that can play man coverage on the receivers to make him look pedestrian.

As a starter this year, Tebow is 3-1. He's beaten the Dolphins, Raiders, and Chiefs, and lost to the Lions. Those teams are a combined 20-19. If you remove the Lions record, the other three are a combined 11-16. You could even make the argument the AFC West is the worst division in the NFL, from top to bottom. The Raiders are in first with a 5-4 record, and the other three are 4-5. Every team in the AFC West is 2-2 against divisional foes. The AFC West, where amazingly average happens! And none of them are positive in points for versus points allowed. They've all been outscored through the course of the season. As a whole, the Broncos are 2-6 against teams with a winning record. It's not as if Tebow is dominating good teams here.

Then there's the contract. He's not getting paid out of his price range. Not at all. His deal runs through 2015. The max payout is $33 million, with $8.7 guaranteed. Like I said, not something that is out of the ordinary for quarterbacks. I think the Broncos will move in a different direction, if not before, at least when his contract expires. The coach that wanted Tebow, Josh McDaniels, is no longer in Denver, and John Fox certainly understands the limitations that Tebow has put on his offense. Fox recently said "If we were trying to run a regular offense, he'd be screwed." Back to the contract. Teams aren't going to sink millions of dollars into the quarterback position when that player is completing less than 50% of his passes and is trying to run more often than he passes. That's what running backs are paid to do. And they usually do it better. Yes, there is an exception, but you know how well the Eagles are doing this year, right? Like I said.

There. I think that's about all I can muster on the subject. Tebow might be a winner in the regular season, and even be good enough to get the Broncos into the playoffs as champs of a diluted division, but don't pin your hopes on him getting far in the playoffs. OK, Andy, your turn.

Update: Tebow beat the Jets. The Jets are now 5-5 and on the cusp of not making the playoffs. Yet, another mediocre team he beat.
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