The likelihood that the Jets trade up or down in the first round of the NFL Draft

The NFL draft is just a few short weeks away and after a very successful free agency Joe Douglas turns his attention to the NFL draft where frankly the results have been up and down.

Sure, you don’t get a better draft class than when Joe D pulled Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, Breece Hall, Micheal Clemons and a few decent role players in three days work. But that doesn’t excuse picks in other years including Zach Wilson, Denzel Mims, Zabari Zuniga and Mekhi Becton (yes, he’s a bust too).

With the eyes on the Jets picking 10^th overall on April 25^th, many are wondering if the Jets will take a wide receiver, an offensive lineman or perhaps Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. Frankly, any of those scenarios are possible depending on what happens in picks one through nine.

That being said, many look at the Jets as a possible trade back team at the 10-slot given the fact that they don’t currently have a second-round pick because of last year’s trade for Aaron Rodgers. The Jets, because of the Rodgers deal, and the Morgan Moses and the Haason Reddick trades have only seven draft picks, with only two in the top 100 (#10, #72) and two coming as the literal last two selections in the draft (#256, #257).

Still, the Jets may look at their roster as a boom or bust, win-now, all-in type of roster and look to move up in the draft to get the exact player they want to push the roster over the age.

With that being the case, let’s look at the likelihood that the Jets make a trade on draft day in the first round.

The Trade Up Scenario

Imagine Aaron Rodgers dropping back to pass, and his progressions include Garret Wilson, a healthy Mike Williams, one of the best pass-catching backs in the league in Breece Hall, a steady Tyler Conklin…and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Good luck defending that.

How about if one of the older tackles the Jets acquired this off-season gets rolled up on and is forced to miss a few weeks and in comes Joe Alt and the offense doesn’t miss a beat with the young rookie out of Notre Dame filling in at tackle.

Both of these are fantastic to think about, but the fact is that is highly unlikely that either player is available when the Jets pick at 10. The only way to get one of those players (Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are other names to consider) is to move up in the draft.

The problem is the Jets simply don’t have the ammo it will take to move up in the draft. The 10^th pick and 72^nd pick will not get you to four or five to get Marvin Harrison or Joe Alt. In order to make that deal, you are likely going to have to give up picks next year, and the Jets are always very hesitant (with good cause) to do that.

I doubt Jonathan Franklin-Myers would fetch fair value on the trade market, and he is likely the best player asset the Jets can even dangle. Zach Wilson’s trade value is a joke. So, the Jets might look at guys like Harrison, Nabers and Alt and day-dream, but the reality is they are probably out of their reach.

Likelihood the Jets trade up: 5%

The Trade Down Scanario

Joe Douglas would love to recoup at least a little of the draft capital he was forced to trade away to acquire the players he did this year. With the Jets roster being full of talented, yet older and injury prone players, the Jets could use some reinforcement and depth all along their roster. That comes in the middle rounds of the draft.

We know Joe Douglas isn’t one to panic when it comes to making trades. He has a value in his mind for the assets he is trading and if an offer doesn’t match his value, he will not make the deal.

Here’s the problem for the Jets to trade down: someone has to be willing to pay to move up. Most teams are willing to move up for a quarterback, but all indications are that the top four quarterbacks will go in the top six picks.

And if one of them starts to slip, the Jets have something else to contend with: the Chicago Bears. The Bears are going to take Caleb Williams first overall, but they also own the ninth pick in the draft, and they are likely just as open to trading back as the Jets are. So why would a team move up to 10, when they can move up to nine and get ensure they get the player they want? The price difference between nine and 10 is likely miniscule.

While I believe the desire to move down is greater than the desire to move up, and possibly even greater than the desire to pick at 10, it may be hard for even Joe Douglas to convince a team to move up if there isn’t something worth moving up for.

Likelihood the Jets trade down: 20%

Im sure Joe Douglas will be working the phones hard during the first 10 picks of the NFL draft, but I don’t see it as very likely that a deal is struck by the Jets unless things fall perfectly for the Jets. I imagine when the clock runs out on the 10^th pick of the draft, the Jets will have their man.