Originally posted on Football Nation  |  Last updated 10/14/12
I've already picked an upset and watched an upset this week, but I am feeling another one coming.I've been on the Seahawks bandwagon for a while (I picked them over my Cowboys here and the Packers here).  I believe in their defense, and I believe in Marshawn Lynch (especially when he goes for 1/4 of the price of Ray Rice after almost matching Rice's stats last year).  However, this week goes beyond jumping on a bandwagon.Marcus Trufant has been a longtime starter for the Seahawks, going all the way back to 2003 (you know, before they reached the Super Bowl).  He is more than capable of limiting Wes Welker from the slot, even if he's no longer talented enough to shut Welker down.Then there is the STARTING corners in Seattle- Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman.  Both are above six feet tall, both are above 200 pounds, and both are excellent at press coverage on the line of scrimmage.  Seattle may very well have the only corners in the league that can physically match up with Aaron Hernandez (who still could miss the game, and if he plays, he could just be a decoy the way Jason Witten was when the Seahawks beat the Cowboys). Brandon Lloyd is a veteran who knows how to cope with press coverage, but there's a reason he never broke out before his eight year in the league.  He's fast, but he's not Randy Moss.  He's smart, but he's not Jerry Rice.  He won't be able to beat Sherman or Browner either.  Julian Edelman is the next star for the Patriots, but he is still listed as "questionable" and probably won't be 100%.  That leaves Deion Branch on the outside in three wide receiver sets (or two wide and Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski split).Just like I said in my preview of the Cowboys game, the best bet to beat the Seahawks is to work the middle of the field and the flats.  Rob Gronkowski will be tough to cover in the middle, and the Patriots have four quality backs to run swing passes with.  Dump it off against the high-pressure blitzes backed by man coverage like the Seahawks prefer to run, and it should be easy to move the ball consistently.However, the Patriots do not have that type of offense right now- the rushing offense comes in ranked third with 165.4 yards per game (compared with Seattle's run defense, third in the league at 66.6 yards allowed per game).  They just don't have the decoys this year, and even with the great game plan that Belicheck is going to surprise everyone by running, the Patriots just won't be able to score often.  This Seattle defense has only allowed five offensive touchdowns this year, and that's not going to change without injuries.Right now, the standard point spread for this game is the Patriots by three and a half points.  Point spread is a great indicator of what the average person (or at least the average betting man) believes, since it is intended to balance the betting so the casino or bookie doesn't lose money.  That makes the Patriots the favorite in the mind of the public, and that's just a mistake.Seattle is going to maintain their perfect home record, and won't even need their normally wild crowd to get the win.  I see a 17-14 win in Seattle's future, as they make a run at being one of this year's biggest surprise teams.The author does not like to bet in the "Not For Long" League, but he really does believe the Seahawks can win this one.  Hopefully Tom Brady will wind up getting the Evander Holyfield treatment like Matt Schaub.You can watch him hope for the Cowboys to win on Facebook (search for RGDSports@yahoo.com) or Twitter(@RGDSports), or you can just call him crazy to predict a loss by the reigning AFC Champions in the comment section down below.
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