Canucks: The Arturs Silovs trade was probably expected value, but still hard to swallow

No one is expecting anyone to be overly excited about the results of the trade that sent Arturs Silovs from the Vancouver Canucks to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

A fourth round pick is just not that interesting. Though Silovs himself was once a sixth round pick, the reality is that any fourth rounder has about a 13% chance of ever playing 300 NHL games, and it’s tough to be jazzed about that sort of return for a prospect the organization had invested some six years of development into. It’s the exact same return, and a similar sort of satisfaction, as the Canucks got back for Vasily Podkolzin one year ago. It’s also the ‘basically free’ price they paid for Evander Kane earlier in the summer.

A forward prospect, Chase Stillman, also came back from Pittsburgh along with the fourth, though he also falls far short of exciting. Stillman is just 22 years old and a former first round pick (29^th overall in 2021), which should make him more intriguing, and yet he’s also a player who never cracked a point-per-game in the OHL and who sits at just 36 career points in 121 career AHL games.

Stillman has some positive qualities – a relentless work ethic and a willingness to play the agitator role – but the odds of his ever making a major NHL impact seem slim at this point.

Like we said at the outset, no one is expecting anyone to be pumped up, or even feel any sort of good, about this trade. Silovs won the hearts and minds of the Canucks faithful a few times over during his years within the system, whether that be his World Championship heroics, or his NHL emergency playoff heroics, or his Calder Cup heroics these past few months. That’s an awful lot of heroism to be saying goodbye to for a mid-round pick and essentially a warm body.

But while it’s fair to be disappointed with the circumstances of losing Silovs, can anyone really be all that disappointed with the return itself? The truth is that the trade is both hard to swallow, and in keeping with the general expectations for a trade involving an asset like Silovs.

Everyone knows by now that Silovs had run out of waiver exemption, and was going to have to either secure an NHL job this Training Camp or be exposed for selection to all 31 other teams. When Kevin Lankinen and then Thatcher Demko signed their contract extensions, solidifying their places in the Vancouver crease, the writing was on the wall that, one way or another, Silovs was on the way out of town.

There’s ample logic in the ‘better than nothing’ notion here. The Canucks were almost certain to lose Silovs had they put him on waivers. Clearly, Pittsburgh would have taken him, and we’re betting a number of other teams would have, too. Getting something back for him, anything, is literally better than nothing.

It’s the same basic situation the team found itself in with Podkolzin last year, with too many NHL forwards signed and no realistic room left over for him. While there’s definitely room for debate as to how necessary the signing of some of those forwards, like say Daniel Sprong, really was, that was the scenario that was created.

We’ll note here that, despite Podkolzin being a former 10^th overall selection himself, Silovs has technically returned a slightly greater trade value, in that he’s brought back both a fourth and another prospect.

So, there is a sort of established price-range for ‘prospect you’re likely to lose on waivers,’ and it’s in the same general range as the Silovs return.

Which is also, coincidentally, in line with the expected value for goalies, in general.

It’s true that goalie trades can be a little all over the place, and that might have led some Canucks fans to have greater expectations for Silovs’ return. Minds might harken back to the deal that sent Cory Schneider to the New Jersey Devils for the ninth overall selection that was quickly converted into Bo Horvat. But Schneider was already more than 100 games deep on his NHL career already, and had enjoyed a development curve with very few hiccups. Silovs just didn’t hold that same value.

Same goes for that Yaroslav Askarov trade last year, in which the Nashville Predators got back both a first round pick and a former first round pick for their disgruntled crease phenom. But then, Askarov had been considered the top goalie prospect in the world since being drafted, and hadn’t done anything at the pro level to change that perception. That’s just a prospective cachet that Silovs has never shared, and it precludes his holding the same value.

Some held out hopes for at least a second rounder, especially after fellow Calder Cup Finals standout Justin Sourdif went from Florida to Washington for second and sixth round picks. There are some similarities here, with Sourdif also newly eligible for waivers as of 2025/26. But Sourdif, as a 23-year-old forward, is simply seen as a different class of prospect as Silovs. Right or wrong, promising young forwards go for second round picks all the time. (Most) promising young goalies just…don’t.

We can find examples of other goalies of seemingly similar value going for slightly better rates, but not many. A few years back, it looked as though Erik Portillo might not sign in Buffalo, and they got a third round pick back from the Los Angeles Kings for his rights. But they’re few and far between. That same year, Adin Hill went from San Jose to Vegas for a fourth rounder. At the time, Hill had a much stronger NHL resume than Silovs does now, and had performed quite well in the AHL, too.

This offseason has seen long-time starter John Gibson go for a second and change, long-time backup/sometime-starter Alex Nedeljkovic go for a third, and current backup Daniil Tarasov go for a fifth.

Even in a supposedly goalie-starved market, it’s difficult to get anything that feels like fair value for a goalie, unless the circumstances are especially favourable. And the circumstances surrounding Silovs – in which the entire league knew the Canucks had to either deal him or lose him for nothing – were anything but favourable.

Is it fair to be disappointed in this trade? Of course.

Is it hard to swallow mere months after Silovs claimed AHL Playoff MVP? Absolutely.

But is it anything less than what should have been expected?

No, probably not.