Found December 01, 2011 on Shutdown Line:

Now that I've got the retrospect out of the way, we can go forward and look at the team's scoring chance numbers through two months of play. This will be a little different from what I did last month as I'm going to be looking at a few different things, one of which being adjusted scoring chance information. One of the biggest issues with scoring chances is that there hasn't been a way to adjust the data for zone starts like there is with corsi, and this is a way of doing it. The method was drawn up by New Your Ranger blogger George Ays who determined that one offensive zone start is equal to .45 in scoring chances. Using the formula drawn up by JLikens for corsi, we can apply this to scoring chances to get a better idea of how the Canes players are performing relative to their zone starts.

A team like Carolina is in huge need of context with this data because of how buried players like Bryan Allen, Brandon Sutter, Patrick Dwyer and Tim Gleason have been all season when it comes to where they start most of their shifts. There's a good chance that their raw numbers are going to look ugly no matter what so adding some context will help judge their performance more evenly. It also has the opposite effect where we can see if a sheltered player (*cough*Kaberle*cough*) is taking advantage of his cushy zone starts or doing nothing with them.

We'll cut into the details after the jump.

We're going to start off with the raw data.

Forwards

Player EV TOI 5v5 SCF 5v5 SCA SC +/- EV CF/15 EV CA/15 Ozone% SC% Nov Diff Chad LaRose 356.15 114 92 22 4.801 3.875 45.8 55.3% -0.042 Zach Boychuk 97.78 22 18 4 3.375 2.761 55.2 55.0% 0.25 Jussi Jokinen 262.68 78 69 9 4.454 3.940 42.2 53.1% -0.092 Jiri Tlusty 297.55 73 65 8 3.680 3.277 46.8 52.9% -0.089 Jeff Skinner 366.53 116 104 12 4.747 4.256 48.4 52.7% 0.027 Eric Staal 380.48 122 117 5 4.810 4.613 52.6 51.0% 0.139 Tuomo Ruutu 337.33 106 106 0 4.713 4.713 47.7 50.0% 0.075 Fwd Average



3.704
3.93

48.5%
Alexei Ponikarovsky 311.25 68 79 -11 3.277 3.807 42.3 46.3% 0.049 Brandon Sutter 356.87 81 97 -16 3.405 4.077 36.6 45.5% -0.002 Patrick Dwyer 337.7 57 77 -20 2.532 3.420 35.8 42.5% -0.035 Tim Brent 203.87 27 48 -21 1.987 3.532 47.3 36.0% -0.022 Anthony Stewart 164.83 23 43 -20 2.093 3.913 55.3 34.8% 0.038 Zac Dalpe 54.67 5 10 -5 1.372 2.744 52.9 33.3% -0.034 Brett Sutter 55.72 6 14 -8 1.615 3.769 40 30.0% -0.082

EV TOI: Even strength time on ice, 5v5 SCF: Scoring chances for 5v5, 5v5 SCA: 5v5 Scoring chances against, SC +/-: Scoring chance differntial, EV CF/15: Even strength scoring chances per 15 min., EV CA/15: Even strength scoring chances against per 15 min., OZone%: Offensive zone start percentage, Nov. Diff: Scoring chance percentage difference from October

Chad LaRose is at the top of the pack this month as he's remained very consistent in creating and preventing chances. Just as a side note, he's also been one of the Canes better players territorially and is on-pace to set career-highs in goals, points and shots on goal. I honestly didn't see him netting more than 15 goals at most at the beginning of the year but he may very well prove me wrong. He also hasn't been receiving much puck luck at even strength either (on-ice shooting percentage is 4.59) so there is a good chance he might actually set a career high in points if he keeps this up. The fact that he's been getting top-six minutes all season has helped him a lot but I don't have any complaints with the way he's performed so far.

Eric Staal and Tuomo Ruutu finally broke the 50% mark in scoring chances and it's about damn time for both of them. Note the huge improvement in Staal's scoring chance percentage in November compared to how it was in October. Staal is having no problem with creating chances as he leads the team in CF/15, but his issue all season is that he's giving a lot back at the other end. It's improved dramatically in November but he's still well below the team average in preventing scoring chances. The same goes for Ruutu and Jeff Skinner. Speaking of Skinner, I think he might take the throne as the best forward on the team for the first two months of the season. He's not getting easy minutes and is creating chances despite that. Oh, and he's scoring goals so that helps too.

Ponikarovsky, Sutter and Dwyer's numbers are still below the team average but Dywer and Poni have both been solid at preventing chances, which is what they are told to do on the third line. Strangely, Sutter is the one struggling in that department but he's gotten a lot better at creating offense which is possibly due to him seeing time on the first line for a few games. These three are also getting some very tough assignments, so the adjusted chances will give us a slightly better idea of their performance.

Jussi Jokinen saw his performance drop the most this month and that is due to a combination of injuries and playing with weaker linemates than Skinner & Ruutu. You'll also notice that his offensive zone starts are extremely low this year, too. Tlusty also saw a bit of a decline in November but he's still coming out on top in scoring chances. He also is doing a solid job at preventing them which might keep him on the third line over Andreas Nodl for the time being.

Stewart and Brent have produced little to no offense but the latter is at least preventing chances when he's on the ice. Boychuk has been playing very well when given ice-time but I'm not sure how valid his numbers are given the small sample size.

Defense

Player EV TOI 5v5 SCF 5v5 SCA SC +/- EV CF/15 EV CA/15 Ozone% SC% Nov. Diff Bryan Allen 405.95 92 80 12 3.399 2.956 36.6 53.5% 0.047 Tomas Kaberle 357.93 96 94 2 4.023 3.939 55.1 50.5% -0.037 Derek Joslin 88.33 17 18 -1 2.887 3.057 70.5 48.6% N/A Defense avg. 203.01


3.765 4.01
48.4%
Jamie McBain 322.27 78 84 -6 3.630 3.910 43.3 48.1% 0.062 Tim Gleason 428.77 98 109 -11 3.428 3.813 39.3 47.3% 0.001 Jay Harrison 350.45 99 112 -13 4.237 4.794 47.4 46.9% -0.032 Justin Faulk 162.32 49 56 -7 4.528 5.175 48.1 46.7% 0.012 Joni Pitkanen 286.52 74 89 -15 3.874 4.659 42.4 45.4% 0.051

Bryan Allen has been the best defenseman on the team and it's not even close, really. I questioned whether or not he could still play a top-four role before the season started and he is proving damn well that he can. I might even go as far to say that he's made Tim Gleason better as these two always seem to be the most effective when paired together, but Allen's numbers away from Gleason are a lot stronger. Don't get me wrong, Gleason's had a very good year but Allen has been a rock.

The player with the biggest decline should not surprise anyone as Tomas Kaberle was awful in November but is still above .500 in scoring chances due to his strong start. Kaberle's been a huge disappointment but is he really as bad as people say he is or is he just going through a rough patch? I'm going to dive into this further because his play certainly dropped off a ton compared to October.

Speaking of players going through rough patches, Pitkanen was not good in October at preventing chances, but was actually improving until his injury put him out of action for about two weeks. He's injected life into the powerplay but his play at even strength has a lot of room for improvement. Hopefully it comes soon. Pitkanen's injury also forced Jay Harrison into a bigger role and he struggled big time. He was above 50% in scoring chances in October when he was getting sheltered minutes with Kaberle but now that he's taking on a bigger role, he's giving up a ton of chances in his own end. Thankfully he is producing a lot of scoring chances too which really helps his value.

The most improved defenseman was Jamie McBain and his numbers are in line with the team average in both category, which is sums up my general thoughts of his play this month. Not too bad, but nothing spectacular either.

It's a small sample size but Justin Faulk is creating and allowing chances at a rate higher than the entire defense corps. Everyone seems to be impressed with his poised but they are overlooking the fact that he's giving up a ton of chances in his own end. On top of that, he's playing some very important minutes so maybe the team should look into decreasing his workload a bit. Maybe give some of those sheltered minutes that Kaberle's hogging to Faulk instead since he's been very effective at creating offense from the blue-line. That's a nice lead into our next segment...

Adjusted Scoring Chances

Forwards

Player EV TOI Raw CD CD/60 ZSNet Adj Raw CD Adj. CD/60 Jussi Jokinen 262.68 9 2.056 -24 11.65 8.78 Brandon Sutter 356.87 -16 -2.69 -57 12.19 8.409 Patrick Dwyer 337.7 -20 -3.553 -57 12.349 7.573 Alexei Ponikarovsky 311.25 -11 -2.12 -31 4.285 7.0433 Chad LaRose 356.15 22 3.706 -18 11.518 5.729 Jiri Tlusty 297.55 8 1.613 -11 5.753 3.566 Tuomo Ruutu 337.33 0 0 -10 2.266 2.26 Jeff Skinner 366.53 12 1.964 -7 4.929 2.118 Tim Brent 203.87 -21 -6.18 -5 -10.625 -1.36 Eric Staal 380.48 5 0.788 13 -1.346 -2.39 Anthony Stewart 164.83 -20 -7.28 8 -21.12 -10.944 Brett Sutter 55.72 -8 -8.615 -5 -10.526 -12.143 Zach Boychuk 97.78 4 -7.67 6 -0.941 -14.67 Zac Dalpe 54.67 -5 -5.487 1 -13.809 -14.97

This model is much more appreciative of the heavy-lifting that Dwyer and Sutter do. They come out in the top three when we adjust scoring chances for zone starts and it makes sense when you think about it. Yes, they are getting outchanced but look at how many draws these two take in their own zone. They are put at a disadvantage almost every-time they are on the ice and are not getting completely killed despite that. However, a player who can outchance his competition WITHOUT the benefit of a handicap like this would be more impressive to me. I imagine that guys like Joel Ward and Sami Pahlsson probably come out with ridiculous ratings through this method.

Back to the Canes, you'll see that Jokinen is the top forward here as he is outchancing his competition despite starting a lot of his shifts in the defensive zone. LaRose has been doing the same thing only his zone starts have been somewhat easier. Staal is rated negatively here because he's barely outchancing his competition and has been one of only two regular forwards who have been seeing more of their shifts start in the offensive zone.

The one issue I have with this method is is that it rewards players who get a lot of defensive zone starts even if they are getting outchanced there. Take Tim Brent for example. He has started only five more of his shifts in the defensive zone and is getting shelled at even strength but this model rewards him for some reason. It also has some big effects on players with small sample sizes (see Boychuk, Dalpe & Sutter).

Defensemen:

Player EV TOI Raw CD CD/60 ZSNet Adj Raw CD Adj. CD/60 Bryan Allen 405.95 12 1.774 -60 15.306 12.69 Tim Gleason 428.77 -11 -1.539 -57 7.4092 9.699 Joni Pitkanen 286.52 -15 -3.141 -26 2.042 6.2179 Jamie McBain 322.27 -6 -1.117 -24 4.44 6.088 Jay Harrison 350.45 -13 -2.226 -11 -1.304 2.041 Justin Faulk 162.32 -7 -2.587 -4 -2.31 0.0373 Tomas Kaberle 357.93 2 0.335 23 -4.86 -5.3604 Derek Joslin 88.33 -1 -0.679 18 -19.493 -19.08

Bryan Allen and Tim Gleason being at the top is no shocker at all. Pitkanen, however, moves up in the rankings a lot because of the amount of defensive zone starts he has. He's been outchanced more than any other defenseman and is rated as the third best defenseman here because of his workload. However, it can be said that Pitkanen isn't playing that bad when you consider that he's playing in a much more defensive role than he's used to. Harrison is being outchanced by almost the same amount and is punished through this model because he has less defensive zone starts.

The one who suffered the most (aside from Joslin) was Tomas Kaberle because he is one of the only sheltered blue-liners on the team and is barely outchancing his competition. I do understand this because it's basically the same case as Staal only a lot worse. It's also the main reason I have been frustrated with Kaberle this season. Guys with a lot of offensive prowess like Faulk, Pitkanen and McBain are being held back because we need to give Kaberle the easier minutes instead. All for him to barely outchance his competition and produce little points. This is why I think Kaberle is hurting the team.

This method isn't perfect but it does help provide a much needed asset in hockey stats: context.

THE BACKYARD
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
RELATED ARTICLES

'Canes in desperate need of a win under Muller

Raleigh, NC --- One of the reasons the Carolina Hurricanes made a coaching change earlier this week was to lighten the mood in the team's locker room by taking some pressure off of the players. In addition, new coach Kirk Muller's message was for the team to have fun. But losing isn't fun. And even with Paul Maurice gone and Muller calling the shots, the results haven...

Former Hurricanes coach Paul Maurice wishes successor, Kirk Muller, good luck

When Paul Maurice was fired from his post as the Carolina Hurricanes head coach on Tuesday, he could have left kicking and screaming. Instead, he packed up his things and left in possibly the classiest way possible. He left a note for his successor, nineteen-year NHL player Kirk Muller, in the Hurricanes locker room. As Sportsgrid pointed out, it may have been a plea for Muller...

No disciplinary action for Joslin

The NHL will take no disciplinary action against Canes defenseman Derek Joslin for his hit on Florida Panthers forward Kris Versteeg in Tuesday's game. Versteeg was hit in the head by Joslin late in the first period of the Panthers' 3-1 victory and left the ice bloodied. No penalty was called. A disciplinary hearing was set for Wednesday for Joslin to determine if Joslin...

Hurricanes claim RW Nodl; reassign Sutter

The Carolina Hurricanes have claimed right wing Andreas Nodl on waivers from the Philadelphia Flyers. The team also reassigned forward Brent Sutter to Charlotte of the AHL. The moves were announced prior to coach Kirk Mueller's debut with the Hurricanes on Tuesday. The 24-year-old Nodl has one assist in 12 games with the Flyers this season. He is expected to provide depth to...

Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes 11/29/11 Scoring Chances

This may have been Carolina's fourth straight loss but it was also a game where the Hurricanes were the better team. Florida was outchanced 17-13 for the entire game and virtually had no life in the first period but the Canes did not make them pay for it. Once again, some of the blame falls on the powerplay failing to create chances when they had plenty of opportunities (five...

Canes add MacLean to coaching staff

The Carolina Hurricanes have added former NHL head coach John MacLean to Kirk Muller's coaching staff, general manager Jim Rutherford announced today. MacLean, 47, spent nine seasons as a coach in the New Jersey Devils organization, including seven years as an assistant coach. He was head coach of the Lowell Devils of the American Hockey League (AHL) in 2009-10, leading the Devils’...

Rangers 5, Hurricanes 3

Kirk Muller is quickly getting a feel for how much work he has to do with the Carolina Hurricanes. The New York Rangers topped the Canes 5-3 Thursday at the RBC Center. That was Muller's second loss since being named coach Monday, but the Canes are winless in their last five games and suffered their fouth straight regulation loss. Muller kept the media out of the locker room...

Rangers @ Hurricanes (Games 22)

The New York Rangers (13-5-3) visit the Carolina Hurricanes (8-14-4) at RBC Center tonight starting at 7:00 p.m. For a preview go to Yahoo! Sports. Rangers Game Notes TV: MSG; Radio: ESPN Radio 1050AM, XM 92Probable Lines:Anisimov-Stepan-GaborikFedotenko-Richards-CallahanAvery-Dubinsky-PrustBoyle-Mitchell-HagelinMcDonagh-GirardiDel Zotto-SauerWoywitka...

Muller's passion won him first NHL coaching job

When the time came for Guy Carbonneau to fill out his coaching staff in the summer of 2006, when he was named head coach in Montreal not long after the Hurricanes eliminated the Canadiens in the first round of the playoffs, he started with veteran Montreal assistant Doug Jarvis. That was an easy hire. For his other assistant, he turned to a former NHL teammate whose only coaching...

Hurricanes Reassign Brett Sutter to Charlotte

Tweet RALEIGH, NC – Jim Rutherford, President and General Manager of the National Hockey League’s C...

Pregame Notes: Rangers at Carolina

Game Preview ---> Tonight's Game AT The Rangers will face-off against the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at RBC Center (7:00 p.m.), to begin a two-game Southeast road tri...

Jan Levine: Game 22: NYR-CAR, Rangers Head to Road for Next Two Games

We take this break from all the Bobby Ryan talks/discussions/rumors/prospective trades to get back to actual hockey. The Rangers kick off a quick two-game roadie in Carolina against the slumping Hurricanes. Carolina fired coach Paul Maurice on Cyber Black Monday, replacing him with Kirk Muller, who brought in another ex-Devil, and ex-Ranger, John MacLean, as his assistant coach Thursday...

Game Preview: New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes

TONIGHT’S GAME: The Rangers will face-off against the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at RBC Center (7:00 p.m.), to begin a two-game Southeast road trip. The Blueshirts currently rank second in the Atlantic Division standings, and fourth in the Eastern Conference, with a record of 13-5-3 (29 pts). The Rangers enter the contest having defeated the Pittsburgh [...]

Strong second period carries Rangers past Hurricanes

RALEIGH, N.C. - Kirk Muller is quickly grasping how much work he has to do with the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes'...

Hurricanes claim Nodl, send down Brett Sutter

The Carolina Hurricanes claimed right wing Andreas Nodl on waivers from Philadelphia and reassigned forward Brett Sutter to their AHL affiliate in Charlotte.
Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.