Found March 24, 2013 on Queen City Sports:
Yesterday I examined the Sabres defensemen and goaltenders, evaluating the odds of each being dealt before April 3rd.  Today I’ll use my foolproof proprietary algorithms to reveal the exact odds of Darcy Regier shipping out any of Buffalo’s forwards.  Unlike the Sabres defense, there aren’t many players that would be shipped out individually, more likely 2 or 3 forwards could be packaged together if Buffalo were looking to make wholesale changes.  Remember, predicting trades isn’t rocket science…it’s much harder than that!   Cody Hodgson There is virtually no upside to trading Hodgson unless he’s part of a package that lands one of the premiere players in the game.  Cody is 23 years old, an RFA this summer that will be Darcy’s top priority to re-sign, and is developing a into a lethal offensive force.  He has some holes defensively, but he’s one of the pieces this team needs to build around. 4.99% Chance of Being Traded (Photo Credit: Dan Hickling) Thomas Vanek Despite his offensive prowess, and dominant 2013 statistics, there is likely no market for Thomas Vanek even if Buffalo were interested in moving him.  His $7.14mil cap hit, and the fact that he’s an unrestricted free agent after next season render him an expensive rental.  Without the guarantee of an extension, the return for Vanek would be minimal or a player with a similar cap hit and free agent status.  If Buffalo trades Thomas it’ll be next year’s deadline, not this one. 1.01% Chance of Being Traded Jason Pominville Jason has one of the more tradeable contracts on the team.  What Pominville provides on the ice for a $5.3mil cap hit is solid value.  Like Vanek he’s facing free agency next summer, but with a more reasonable cap hit teams may look to bite on the Sabres captain if he were made available. However I suspect that he’s not, like Christian Ehrhoff on defense, Jason provides too much bang for the buck to trade. 17.0% Chance of Being Traded Ville Leino Talk about untradeable contracts, this one takes the cake.  With speculation that Buffalo may use one of their buyouts on Ville after this season no GM is going to part with anything acquire Leino when he’ll likely be a free agent this summer.  At a lower cap hit he’d fetch a draft pick for a rental, but I just don’t see it happening at $4.5mil/year. 0.01% Chance of Being Traded Drew Stafford has struggled finding his scoring touch this season. © Dan Hickling Drew Stafford Here’s a guy who fits the classic “needs a change of scenery” cliche.  Drew came into this year off back to back 50+ point seasons, but has been dreadful in this shortened campaign.  With cost certainty for two more seasons at $4.0mil/year there’s a market for Stafford.  If that market isn’t high enough Buffalo doesn’t have to part ways with Drew, but for a reasonable offer they should. 68.8% Chance of Being Traded Steve Ott Ott would be a fantastic addition for any team looking to add grit, and secondary scoring to their playoff roster.  However outside of Steve the Sabres are pretty devoid of those attributes, and Ott has really begun to fit into Buffalo’s system the past couple weeks.  Steve needs to be part of the future here, replacing him would be a lot tougher than just replacing his statistics. 3.5% Chance of Being Traded Tyler Ennis Can Mikhail Grigorenko potentially play a full NHL season next year? If so, moving Ennis now could bring back another key piece for Buffalo to build around.  Tyler has tremendous offensive upside, but the Sabres need to get bigger down the middle, and with Grigorenko projecting as a top 6 pivot, and Hodgson solidified in his role Ennis could be moved for the right price. 44.44% Chance of Being Traded Nathan Gerbe I’m not sure if there is a market for an undersized bottom 6 forward who only has 3 goals on the season.  Nathan’s play has tailed off each of his NHL seasons, but maybe like Stafford he could just use a change of scenery.  He won’t cost much, and it doesn’t appear he fits into Buffalo’s long term plans.  Moving Gerbe could free up a roster spot better filled by a healthy Corey Tropp next season. 70.20% Chance of Being Traded (Getty Images) Jochen Hecht The subject of many a Sabres fans ire, Jochen isn’t going anywhere.  Hecht has little value as a rental player, and will either sign in Germany this off-season or return to Buffalo at minimal cost for a 4th line role. 1.9% Chance of Being Traded Patrick Kaleta Kaleta is an interesting case, as he seemingly provides more value to the Sabres than he would to other teams.  Patrick is terrific on the penalty kill as well as getting into the heads of the opponent, but is also prone to bonehead penalties that have cost this team dearly.  I would say there could be minimal interest in him for a playoff team, or a team that needs to get some sandpaper in the lineup, but I doubt Buffalo would listen to offers for Kaleta unless someone was willing to overpay…which isn’t happening. 6.67% Chance of Being Traded Brian Flynn Flynn has been a bit of a revelation for Buffalo this season.  A standout at Maine, he’s brought his speed and willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice to this Sabres team, providing a spark to the bottom 6.  I think the Buffalo front office would like to wait this kid out and see he’s got off a full training camp next season.  It’d shock me if he were traded now, unless he was the extra player thrown into a package for another teams star. 4.5% Chance of Being Traded Marcus Foligno Like Cody Hodgson, Foligno is a promising young talent that his organization will look to build around.  Again unless he is part of a large multi-player deal he’s not going anywhere. 2.73% Chance of Being Traded John Scott I’m not sure if anyone out there desires a big bodied healthy scratch who can occasionally step on the ice and fight, but if that team exists then by all means trade Scott.  The return even from a team that really wants big John would be nothing more than a conditional draft pick. 50.0% Chance of Being Traded Kevin Porter Porter is the prime example of that player whose skill set puts him right in between the AHL and the NHL.  In the minors he stands out, with the big club he always just comes up short from where you’d like him to be as a player.  Still, he provides some energy to the 4th line, and is rather effective on the penalty kill.  He could be a small depth addition for a playoff team, though with minimal return. 51.11% Chance of Being Traded Mikhail Grigorenko/Luke Adam/Cody McCormick Mikhail Grigorenko isn’t going anywhere unless he’s part of a package for a star player.  Luke Adam, along with Gerbe & Stafford could probably benefit from an organizational change of scenery but isn’t the kind of guy you add at the deadline as he’s more for next year than this year’s playoffs.  Cody McCormick could be a nice depth addition for a playoff bound team, but if there was a market for Cody he would have been claimed off of waivers.  I don’t see any other prospects being moved unless they’re part of a bigger package. 10% Chance of Being Traded As you can see there aren’t a lot of pieces that should be moved 1 for 1, but Buffalo has half a dozen players that could be packaged together in a deal.  However, a  wholesale change like that is more likely done over the summer, especially with the team creeping up on 8th place in the conference.   Agree or disagree, let me know on twitter @SabreHess The post Handicapping the Sabres Trade Chances: Part II appeared first on Queen City Sports.
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