Oilers vs. Stars: A Breakdown of Forwards, Defence, and Goaltending

The Oilers and Stars are the 10th set of teams to meet in the Conference Final in consecutive seasons, and Edmonton will look to be the sixth team to win both times after defeating Dallas in six games last year.

Each team has a few new key contributors, with Mikko Rantanen, Mikael Granlund, Cody Ceci, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Lian Bichsel in Dallas, and Jake Walman, John Klingberg, Troy Stecher, Vasily Podkolzin, Trent Frederic, and Kasperi Kapanen in Edmonton. We could see Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Ty Emberson, Oskar Back, and Colin Blackwell make an appearance for their teams at some point in this series as well.

Many of the main players still remain. Dallas wants revenge from last year, while the Oilers are looking to get back to the Cup Finals and win it. There is no shortage of motivation for either team.

The Oilers defeated LA in five games and Vegas in six, while Dallas beat Colorado in seven and Winnipeg in six. All four opponents had 102+ points in the regular season. Some will try to argue over whose path was easier/harder, but both teams beat two quality teams to reach the Conference Finals.

Dallas has had a weird playoffs. When they lose, they’ve been blown out. They lost 4-0 three times, as well as scores of 5-1 and 7-4. But in their eight wins, they only allowed 14 goals and won four games by one goal and another by two when they scored an empty net goal.

The Oilers allowed six goals in each of their first two playoff games and lost both. Since then, they are 8-1, and the only loss came when Vegas scored with 0.4 seconds remaining when Leon Draisaitl deflected the puck into his own goal. Edmonton allowed 16 goals in its three losses and 18 goals in its eight wins.

Both teams have shown they can lock it down defensively, but also have a tendency to be leaky. Here are their playoff numbers.

Dallas has been outscored 38-34 overall (big losses have led to a negative goal differential) and 22-20 at 5×5.
Edmonton has outscored teams 43-34 and 30-20 at 5×5.

Many pundits and fans claim Dallas has more scoring depth, which was the case in the regular season, but that isn’t what we’ve seen through two rounds. The Oilers’ forward depth has been significantly higher, and here’s a look at each team’s lines from the past few games.

**Anything in red means a negative differential.**

Forwards…

EDM 1st line:
Nugent-Hopkins: 15:46/game and 1-3-4 production.                   McDavid: 18:03 and 1-10-11                          Hyman: 15:54 and 2-3-5
4-3 GF-GA and 74-78 SF-SA                                                              12-10 GF-GA and 110-70 SF-SA                    8-7 GF-GA and 94-78 SF-SA

DAL 1st line:
Granlund: 13:44 and 2-2-4                              Hintz: 13:01 and 1-4-5                                      Rantanen: 16:25 and 6-5-11
7-3 GF-GA and 73-90 SF-SA                            7-2 GF-GA and 67-80 SF-SA                         11-4 GF-GA and 84-97 SF-SA

Both lines have outscored the opposition, but oddly, Dallas’ first line players have all been outshot. The Stars’ line has carried much of Dallas’ offence at 5×5, scoring 45% of their 5×5 goals.

EDM 2nd line:
Podkolzin: 9:31 and 1-4-5                                Draisaitl: 18:00 and 4-5-9                              Kapanen: 13:34 and 1-0-1
5-2 GF-GA and 50-34 GF-GA                         11-8 GF-GA and 114-67 SF-SA                      1-0 GF-GA and 13-10 SF-SA

DAL 2nd line:
Benn: 12:15 and 0-1-1                                      Duchene: 13:32 and 0-0-0                              Seguin: 12:51 and 1-1-2
4-9 GF-GA and 73-90 SF-SA                          2-3 GF-GA and 74-83 SF-SA                          2-4 GF-GA and 62-79 SF-SA

The Stars’ second line has one goal between them 5×5 and they’ve been outscored and outshot. They’ve looked slow in the games I’ve watched. Draisaitl’s line limited Jack Eichel to only two scoring chances combined in Games 4 and 5, while Kapanen scored the OT winner.

EDM 3rd line:
Kane: 15:45 and 4-3-7                                     Henrique: 12:31 and 3-1-4                              Brown: 12:54 and 2-3-5
9-6 GF-GA and 79-66 SF-SA                          7-5 GF-GA and 60-55 SF-SA                         5-4 GF-GA and 63-54 SF-SA

DAL 3rd line:
Robertson: 12:43 and 0-0-0                           Johnston: 13:15 and 2-2-4                            **No regular winger, as they dressed 11 forwards.**
1-3 GF-GA and 30-31 SF-SA                          4-8 GF-GA and 61-80 SF-SA                       

Kane has been very good despite missing the entire regular season. He’s healthy and moving much better than last year and his and Brown’s speed on the wings, combined with Henrique’s smarts in the middle, has made them a very formidable line.

Robertson is still trying to find his stride after returning from injury. He has no points at 5×5 and only one assist in six games. Johnston has produced at 5×5, but he’s been caved in on shots against and goals against. The Stars dressed 11 forwards in the last three games of the Winnipeg series, mainly due to not wanting to overplay Miro Heiskanen since he returned from injury. Heiskanen was exceptional in Game 6 and looked like he is ready to resume his normal workload, so we could see the Stars return to 12 forwards. Benn-Johnston-Robertson were a regular line in the regular season, and I wonder if Pete Deboer looks to reunite them, and then move Mason Marchment back with Matt Duchene, as those two were productive together in the regular season.

EDM 4th line:
Frederic: 10:39 and 1-2-3                                Janmark: 9:19 and 2-1-3                              Perry: 10:59 and 3-1-4
4-3 GF-GA and 46-47 SF-SA                          6-4 GF-GA and 47-34 SF-SA                       8-5 GF-GA and 57-44 SF-SA

DAL 4th line:
Marchment: 13:45 and 1-1-2                           Steel: 10:23 and 1-5-6                                 Dadonov: 11:35 and 1-3-4
4-5 GF-GA and 66-79 SF-SA                          7-8 GF-GA and 49-68 SF-SA                     8-7 GF-GA and 59-60 SF-SA

Janmark has played very well since moving to centre. Frederic has looked more comfortable each game as he recovers from his high ankle sprain. Perry, who celebrated his 40th birthday a few days ago, has been quite productive and will get a few shifts with McDavid and Draisaitl after penalty kills.

Steel has been very productive in his minutes. He was an elite scorer in junior, and he has become a very reliable checking forward, but he can still create offence when given the chance. If the Stars opt to play 12 forwards, one of Colin Blackwell, Oscar Back or Mavrik Bourque would draw in and play with Steel while Marchment moves up.

Through two rounds, the Oilers’ forwards have outscored Dallas’ forwards 26-16 at 5×5. Then, add how every Dallas forward has been outshot, and it is clear Edmonton is getting much better play from its forwards through the first two rounds. At 5×5 Rantanen has produced 37.5% of the Stars’ forwards’ goals, while McDavid and Draisaitl have combined for 19.2% of Edmonton’s.

In the regular season, Dallas’ forwards scored the second-most goals 5×5 among Western Conference teams with 157. Vegas was first with 159. The Oilers limited Vegas’ forwards to six goals (5×5) in five games. The Stars enter this series with many forwards not feeling great about their offensive games, and the Oilers’ path to winning this series will be keeping that confidence low.

DEFENCE…

EDM 1st pair:
Kulak: 20:51 and 0-2-2                          Bouchard: 20:22 and 1-6-7                  
7-6 GF-GA and 103-83 SF-SA              16-13 GF-GA and 124-91 SF-SA 

DAL 1st pair:
Harley: 20:40 and 3-2-5                        Heiskanen: 14:49 and 0-1-1                
11-7 GF-GA and 107-129 SF-SA            1-0 GF-GA and 16-15 SF-SA 

Edmonton played essentially five D-men for the first nine games of the playoffs, until inserting Troy Stecher. Kulak and Bouchard became a regular pairing in those final two games. Bouchard is having another excellent postseason, while Kulak has been steady. Heiskanen looked unreal in Game 6 vs. Winnipeg, and he played 22:13 at 5×5. After returning from injury, they eased him in the first two games, but he looks fully healthy now, making Dallas’ top pair lethal.

EDM 2nd pair:
Nurse: 21:06 and 2-1-3                            Stecher: 15:03 and 0-0-0                  
10-13 GF-GA and 113-103 SF-SA           1-0 GF-GA and 16-9 SF-SA 

DAL 1st pair:
Lindell: 18:02 and 0-0-0                        Ceci: 17:20 and 0-3-3                
7-9 GF-GA and 82-134 SF-SA               6-9 GF-GA and 83-129 SF-SA 

Lindell and Ceci faced Nathan MacKinnon’s line the most in the opening round, and they will likely split the matchup vs. McDavid or Draisaitl’s line. Neither of them brings much on the side of offence. Nurse and Stecher have played well together all season, and Nurse will need to play like he did in the Vegas series against the Stars.

EDM 3rd pair:
Walman: 17:31 and 1-1-2                         Klingberg: 18:21 and 0-3-3                  
15-6 GF-GA and 105-67 SF-SA               7-3 GF-GA and 91-70 SF-SA 

DAL 3rd pair:
Bichsel: 11:16 and 0-0-0                        Petrovic: 12:35 and 1-1-2                
5-4 GF-GA and 63-49 SF-SA               4-4 GF-GA and 68-52 SF-SA 

Lyubushkin: 15:43 and 0-3-3
6-11 GF-GA and 83-109 SF-SA

The Bichsel/Petrovic pairing has been quite good for a third pair. They don’t play a lot against the top lines, but they’ve been solid against bottom-six competition. They’ve mainly played together, but with Heiskanen returning, the Stars might opt for 12 forwards, so they will either split up their third pair and play Lyubushkin with one of them or scratch Lyubushkin. I’d guess it would be the former.

Walman and Klingberg have been excellent as a pair or when playing others. Walman leads the NHL with a +13 rating overall, and he is +9 at 5×5. He’s been really good, while Klingberg’s poise with the puck and outlet passing has been brilliant.

With Heiskanen healthy, he and Harley are the best pair in the series, but I feel the Oilers have the better #1-#6, because they have more puck movers.

GOALTENDING…

Jake Oettinger was excellent in the Winnipeg series, posting a .929Sv% and 2.02 GAA. He was a main reason the Stars won, as they were often outshot and outchanced. He or Freddie Andersen have been the two best goalies thus far.

Oettinger is 8-5 with a .917Sv% and 2.47GAA. He also has a +3.70 in goals saved above expected (third best in the NHL).

Stuart Skinner posted consecutive shutouts to knock Vegas out of the playoffs. He had a .944Sv% and 1.28 GAA in three games vs. Vegas. Skinner didn’t make a big save in his two starts vs. LA, but like last year’s playoffs, after sitting out, Skinner returned and played well. Skinner has shown an ability to bounce back after being scratched. In the second round, Skinner tied Freddie Andersen for the best adjusted Sv% according to Clear Sight Analytics.

In 18 games (over the past two playoffs) after returning from being relegated to the backup role, Skinner has a .919Sv% and 1.89GAA. The Oilers aren’t constructed to rely on their goalie to steal them games. They just need steady goaltending, and Skinner has shown he can do that, especially after some early-playoff struggles.

Last year in the WCF, Skinner played better than Oettinger. Skinner posted a .922Sv% and 1.91GAA% while Oettinger had a .907Sv% and 2.56 GAA. Skinner only allowed more than two goals once. Edmonton will need a similar performance from him this year, and the Oilers will need to do a better job of finishing than Winnipeg did. Oettinger stoned them on many of their best chances, usually when they opted to shoot low rather than high.

THIS AND THAT…

— Mattias Ekholm skated in his first full team practice of the playoffs on Monday. He was paired with Ty Emberson and is not expected to play in the series opener. He’s returning from a groin injury, and a return later in the series is possible, but not a guarantee.

— Calvin Pickard didn’t skate with the team, and there is still no timeline on when he might dress as the backup. This series looks to be Skinner vs. Oettinger.

— Dallas is the 12th team since the NHL expanded to 21 teams in 1980 to make it to three consecutive Conference Finals. Florida became the 13th one night later when they beat Toronto in Game 7. The only team to make it to three CF and not win at least one Stanley Cup was the Boston Bruins (1990-1992). They lost the Stanley Cup to Edmonton in 1990 and lost the Eastern Conference Final to Pittsburgh in 1991 and 1992. Dallas will try to avoid becoming the second team to do it.