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WNBA playoffs head into second round after single eliminations

The unpredictability of a single-elimination game is what the WNBA banked on when it changed the structure of the playoffs during the offseason. While some may still sense the inevitability of a Minnesota Lynx/Los Angeles Sparks Finals series, the wild card feel to the first two rounds of the playoffs brings great tension to the proceedings.

The Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream advanced after winning their respective first-round matchups on Wednesday night, yet this weekend’s second round features compelling games in their own right. The Mercury, whose pace and defense pushed them past the Indiana Fever, will visit the New York Liberty. After holding off the Seattle Storm, the hottest team coming into the playoffs, the Dream travel to Chicago to face the Sky.

Here’s what to keep in mind as these four squads battle to face either Minnesota or Los Angeles in the semifinals next week.

(8) Phoenix Mercury @ (3) New York Liberty

This new format is pretty dangerous for one team thought to be a threat to that seemingly inevitable Finals series. The third-seeded New York Liberty lost its last three games to end the season and posted a 3-5 record after the Olympic break. (In fairness, with their seeding secured just after the break, players were rested in the final game against Chicago.)

On a team with a middling offense, the Liberty can appear as one-dimensional as the league’s leading scorer and rebounder Tina Charles has to carry even more of the weight of the New York offense. Facing double and occasionally triple teams, Charles needs help, which is where some strong perimeter shooting from Sugar Rodgers, Brittany Boyd, Epiphanny Prince and the retiring Swin Cash will come in. With Charles and Kiah Stokes in the frontcourt, New York led the league in rebounding, but Stokes’ hip injury forced her to miss the last six games of the regular season. (Stokes’ availability for the playoff game is uncertain as of press time.)

With that said, defense is going to determine this game for the Liberty. In Wednesday’s win, Phoenix threw a balanced attack at the Fever. Though Diana Taurasi led the Mercury with 20, she had help with four others in double figures, including 18 from reserve DeWanna Bonner. What was interesting was that while the long-range game wasn’t going their way (just 4-for-16 from three), the Mercury got to the charity stripe often as they made 25 of 30 free throws, contrasted with 15 of 19 from Indiana.

It may not be much of a stretch to say that Coach Sandy Brondello’s decision to shorten the rotation melded some continuity in a team that didn’t have a whole lot of it until the late season playoff push. While eight players entered the game for Phoenix, just six had court time of 23 or more minutes. 

According to some analysis from Brian Martin for WNBA.com, both teams seem to let up a bit on defense against each other, though the Mercury really drops its guard against the Liberty. In three contests this season, Phoenix allows 11 points more per 100 possessions to New York compared to the rest of the WNBA. Yet, with this late season version of Brittney Griner – who has played excellent basketball since the Olympic break – possibly countering anything Charles does, it’ll be interesting to see how it translates on both ends of the floor.

(5) Atlanta Dream @ (4) Chicago Sky

Even with some late season ebbs and flows, it was clear that New York had the best team in the East. Behind the Liberty alternated Chicago and Atlanta, who were both led by two of the league’s most dynamic scorers and supporting casts that were still sorting themselves out in varied parts of the season.

The Sky led the WNBA in scoring in the regular season at 86.2 points per game, largely paced by Elena Delle Donne and her per game averages of 21.5 points and seven rebounds along with .485 field-goal and .935 free-throw percentages. One of the game’s truly elite players, Delle Donne is the alpha and the omega in the Sky’s fortunes, which in itself is a huge challenge when she’s not on the floor.

Delle Donne injured her thumb earlier this month against the Washington Mystics. The injury required surgery, putting the star forward out indefinitely and it’s unlikely that she would play in Sunday’s contest. Without the reigning league MVP, the offense has an entirely different look as only one other player on the roster averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season, Cappie Pondexter. The 11-year veteran guard, who used to light up scoreboards for Phoenix and New York, had been kicking up her offense a bit for Chicago, including 24 in a win over the champion Lynx on September 13th. 

Yet, even if Pondexter, Tamera Young, Courtney Vandersloot and Jamierra Faulkner throw all of their energy into getting buckets, the Sky have to worry about the defensive side of the game, which has been problematic all year long. Even with Delle Donne, Chicago allowed the second-most points per game (85.6) and had the second worst defensive rating (106.1) in the league. (The 11-23 Dallas Wings were first in both categories.) In a single-elimination game, that can be ripe for disaster if the right, or rather, wrong opponent comes to town. Enter Atlanta.

Angel McCoughtry had a monster game versus Seattle on Wednesday, going 14-for-21 from the floor (including 3-of-4 from three-point range) for 37 points along with seven assists. With that performance, the #1 overall draft pick in the 2009 draft now has four of the top seven scoring playoff games in WNBA history.



Yet, while McCoughtry was going off, the Storm also let Bria Holmes drop 21 while the league’s Most Improved Player, Elizabeth Williams, asserted herself with 16 rebounds and three blocks. Though Atlanta is a top-heavy offense with McCoughtry, Tiffany Hayes and the emerging Holmes, without EDD, the Sky are going to have a tough time trying to crash the boards if Williams plants herself in the paint once again. With Hayes returning from a one-game suspension for amassing seven technical fouls in the regular season, the Dream’s second-leading scorer will be another player the short-handed and defensively-challenged Sky has to contend with.

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